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Appraisal Risk Matrix REC Crisil
Appraisal Risk Matrix REC Crisil
Pre-Construction
Construction
Risk parameter
I. Pre-Construction Risks 1. Statutory Clearances 2. Non-Statutory Approvals 3. Finalization of Key Contracts 4. Design Parameters II. Construction Risks III. Operations & Maintenance Risks 1. Operational Risks 2. Sales & Offtake Risk 3. Political/Economy and Social Risks 4. Force Majeure Events 5. Techno Economic Parameters IV.Financials Total Score Obtained 30 5 2 13 10 40 10 10 30 5 2 13 10 40 10 10
20 100 100
20 100
HYDEL
the Project
Operations & Maintainence
Project Grading Matrix Stage of the Project>> Pre-Construction Construction Total Score Grade Assigned to Project Grading Matrix >>> 80 and above Above 65 and below 80 Above 50 and below 65 Below 50 PP1 PP2 PP3 PP4
100 PC1
PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4
Ops.&Maint.
No.
Type of Risk
Adjusted Wt.
Gr
I.1
10
10
TEC Obtained
10
10
Allocation Obtained
Water Availability
10
10
10
10
10 EC Issued
10
10
0.5
0.5
10
10 Obtained
H I.2
0.5 5
0.5 5
10
10
Land/Site
10
10 Very Good
Access
10
10 Obtained
C 1.3
10
10
40
40
1 2
Y Y
2 2
2 2
10 10
10 Highly Favorable 10
Very Good
PPA- Term
10
10
Very Good
PPA - Qualitative
10
Fuel Supply
Y 2
EPC
10
NON-EPC
10
10
10
10
Contractor
10
10
Advantageous
10
10
10
10
10
Very Good
10
10
Contacts Awarded
O & M Contracts
10
10
Contacts Awarded
G I.4
1 15
1 15
10
10
Thermal
Hydro
Gas
Project Cost
10
Thermal
Hydro
Gas
Availability Factor
10
Thermal
Combined Cycle
Heat Rate
10
Thermal
Gas
Combined Cycle
D E F II.
Y Y Y
2 2 2 15
2 2 2 15
10
Thermal
10
Very Reputed
10
10
10
10
10
10
Very Good
Evacuation Infrastructure
10
10
E IV.
2 15
2 15
10
10
70:30
Debt-Equity Average DSCR IRR Return on Equity Break Even PLF (@ DSCR =1)
Y Y Y Y Y
4 4 3 2 2
4 4 3 2 2
10 10 10 10 10
Grading Guidelines
Total Scored
10
DPR Submitted Feasibility Study Done Pre-Feasibility (Survey of Site) Rejection
1.0
In-principle Approval In-principle Approval from SG Obtained for from SG Obtained for Full requirement partial requirement
Source Identified
Rejection
2.0
Applied For
Rejection
1.0
Rejection
2 Screening Completed
0 Rejection
1.0
4 SG Forestry Recommends
2.0
Rejection
2.0
Applied For
Rejection
2 Applied For
0 Rejection
0.5
0.5 5
About 60% or above About 40% or above Less than 40% of the (<80%) of the Norms (<60%) of the Norms Norms
8 Above Average
6 Average
4 Below Average
0 Poor
8 -
6 -
2 Applied For
0 Rejected (0)
Rejected (0)
40
Submitted Bids but not Pre-qualified for Successful Case 1, Case 2 Bids 4 Moderately Favorable 6 2 Lowly Favorable 2
2 2
Good 8
Average 6
Below Average 4
Poor 2
Average 6
Below Average 2
Poor 0
>50% of Fuel Required >50% of Fuel (@NA) for 12 Years is Required (@NA) for tied up 5 Years is tied up 6 4
No Action Yet 0
10
Bidders shortlisted and RFP Floated RFQ for Bids Floated 4 Good experience of other than Power Sector 6 2 Very Less experience of other than Power Sector 2
No Action Yet 0
No experience 0
Low Risk
Medium Risk
High Risk
Bids Received and Contactor(s) being finalized 8 Bids Received and Contactor(s) being finalized 8
No Action Yet 0
No Action Yet 0
Above Average 8 Bids Received and Contactor(s) being finalized 8 Bids Received and Contactor(s) being finalized 8
Average 6
Below Average 2
Poor 0
No Action Yet 0
No Action Yet 0
1 15
4-5 Crores 10 6-7 Crores 10 4-4.5 Crores 10 >85% 10 >60% 10 >85% 10 <2300 10 <2300 10 <1700 10 < 6%
5-6 Crores 8 7-8 Crores 8 4.5-5.0 Crores 8 70-85% 8 50-60% 8 75-85% 8 <2500 8 <2500 8 <1900 8 < 6-8%
6.0-6.5 Crores 6 8-8.5 Crores 6 5-5.50 Crores 6 60-70% 6 40-50% 6 65-75% 6 <2800 6 <2800 6 <2300 6 < 8-10%
6.5-7.0 Crores 4 > 8.5 Crores 4 > 5.50 Crores 4 <60% 4 <40% 4 <65% 4 >2800 4 >2800 4 >2300 4 < 10%
2 2 2 15
Land Identified and Acquired at least 50% Acquired at least 33% Acquisition in of Requirement of Requirement progress -Advances 8 Applied for Stage 2 Clearance 8 6 Stage 1 Clearance Issued 6 2 Applied for Stage 1 Clearance 2
Low Risk 8
Medium Risk 6
High Risk 2
Above Average 8
Average 6
Below Average 2
Poor 0
2 15
4 4 3 2 2
0.5
0.5
10
Water Availability
10
0.5
0.5
10
0.5
0.5
10
Environment Clearance
0.5
0.5
10
10
0.5
0.5
10
0.5 2
0.5 2
10
Land/Site
10
Access
0.5
0.5
10
0.5 13
0.5 13
10
PPA-Quantitative
1 2
Y Y
2 1
2 1
10 10
PPA- Term
10
PPA - Qualitative
10
Fuel Supply
Y 2
EPC
10
NON-EPC
10
Contractor
10
10
10
10
10
O & M Contracts
10
1 10
1 10
10
Project Cost
10
Availability Factor
10
Heat Rate
10
Auxilary Consumption
10
D E F II.
Y Y Y
1 1 1 40
1 1 1 40
10 10 10
Land/Site
10
10
10
Evacuation Infrastructure
10
10
10
10
2 10
2 10
10
10
5 20
5 20 5 5 4 3 3
10
Debt-Equity Average DSCR IRR Return on Equity Break Even PLF (@ DSCR =1)
Y Y Y Y Y
5 5 4 3 3
10 10 10 10 10
Grading Guidelines
Total Scored
5
Pre-Feasibility (Survey of Site)
TEC Obtained
DPR Submitted
Rejection
10 Allocation Obtained
8 4 In-principle Approval In-principle Approval from SG Obtained for from SG Obtained for Full requirement partial requirement
2 Source Identified
0 Rejection
0.5
Applied For
Rejection
0.5
Rejection
10 EC Issued
2 Screening Completed
0 Rejection
0.5
4 SG Forestry Recommends
0.5
Rejection
Applied For
Rejection
10 Obtained
2 Applied For
0 Rejection
0.5
10
0.5 2
About 60% or above About 40% or above Less than 40% of the (<80%) of the Norms (<60%) of the Norms Norms
10 Very Good
8 Above Average
6 Average
4 Below Average
0 Poor
10 Obtained
8 -
6 -
2 Applied For
0 Rejected (0)
0.5
10
Rejected (0)
0.5 13
Signed PPA for at least 60% of Capacity 10 Highly Favorable 10 Very Good 10
Pre-qualified for Submitted Bids but not Case 1, Case 2 Bids ( Successful (4) 2) 4 Moderately Favorable 6 Average 6 2 Lowly Favorable 2 Below Average 4
2 1
Very Good 10 Fuel Required at Normative Availability (NA) for 12 Years is tied up 10
Average 6
Below Average 2
Poor 0
>50% of Fuel Required >50% of Fuel (@NA) for 12 Years is Required (@NA) for tied up 5 Years is tied up 6 4
No Action Yet 0
No Action Yet
10
No experience
10
Advantageous 10
Low Risk 8
Medium Risk 6
High Risk 4
Supplier Finalized and Contract Awarded 10 Supplier Finalized and Contract Awarded 10
Bids Reeceived and Contactor(s) being finalized 8 Bids Reeceived and Contactor(s) being finalized 8
No Action Yet 0
2.00
No Action Yet 0
Very Good 10
Above Average 8 Bids Reeceived and Contactor(s) being finalized 8 Bids Reeceived and Contactor(s) being finalized 8
Average 6
Below Average 2
Poor 0
1.00
Contacts Awarded 10
No Action Yet 0
Contacts Awarded 10
No Action Yet 0
1 10
Thermal
4-5 Crores 10
5-6 Crores 8 7-8 Crores 8 4.5-5.0 Crores 8 70-85% 8 50-60% 8 75-85% 8 <2500 8 <2500 8 <1900 8 < 6-8% 8 1-2 %
6.0-6.5 Crores 6 8-8.5 Crores 6 5-5.50 Crores 6 60-70% 6 40-50% 6 65-75% 6 <2800 6 <2800 6 <2300 6 < 8-10% 6 2-3%
6.5-7.0 Crores 4 > 8.5 Crores 4 > 5.50 Crores 4 <60% 4 <40% 4 <65% 4 >2800 4 >2800 4 >2300 4 < 10% 4 3-4%
Hydro
6-7 Crores 10
Gas Thermal
Hydro
>60% 10
Gas Thermal
>85% 10 <2300 10
<2300 10
Combined Cycle
<1700 10
Thermal
< 6% 10
Gas
<1%
1 1 1 40
Land Identified and Acquisition in progress -Advances Acquired at least 75% Acquired at least 50% Acquired at least 33% Paid/Notification of Requirement of Requirement of Requirement Issued 10 8 6 2
Low Risk 8
Medium Risk 6
High Risk 2
Very Good 10
Above Average 8
Average 6
Below Average 2
Poor 0
Average Impact 6
High Impact 2
No Impact and Risk Low Impact and Risk completely Addressed Adequately (10) Addressed (8) 8 Low Impact and Risk No Impact and Risk Adequately completely Addressed Addressed 10
Average Impact
High Impact
10
2 10
More than Required Adequate for Proposed Less than Normative for Capacity Capacity Requirement 8 Adequate for Life of the Plant 6 Adequate for Medium Term 2 Adequate only for Short Term
10
5 20
5 5 4 3 3
Adjusted Wt.
Statutory Clearances
5
Obtained
A II.
5 15
5 15
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
Very Good
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
Accident/ Damage/ H Destruction III. Operations & Maintenance III.1 Operational Risks
10
10
18
18
Very Good
Equipment Performance
10
10
Adequately Covered
10
10
10
10
Low
10
10
Very Strong
E F
Source Supplier
Y Y
2 2
2 2
10 10
10 Vey High 10
10
10
Adequately Covered
10
10
Adequately Covered
10
10 Adequately Covered
O & M risks
10
10
Adequately Covered
1 10
1 10
10
10
Highly Favorable
10
10
10
Adequately Covered
Evacuation Risk
10
10
Highly Favorable
D E
Y Y
2 2
2 2
10 10
Quality of Receivables
Y Y
1 1 5
1 1 5
10 10
10 Very Good
10
Low
10
10
Foreign Exchange - On B Cost of Generation Change of Policies - Fuel C Supply III.4 Force Majeure Risk
Low
Y Y
1 2 2
1 2 2
10 10
10 Low 10
Natural Calamity/Disaster
Adequately Covered
10
10
Adequately Covered
1 10
1 10
10
10
Thermal
Hydro
Gas
Project Cost
10
Thermal
Hydro
Gas
PLF/ Availability
10
Thermal
Heat Rate
10
Combined Cycle
Heat Rate
10
Thermal
Gas
Combined Cycle
Y Y
1 1 35
1 1 35
10
Thermal
10
70:30
Debt-Equity Average DSCR IRR Return on Equity Break Even PLF (@ DSCR =1)
Y Y Y Y
7 8 8 6
7 8 8 6
10 10 10 10
60-70%
10
10
Grading
Total Scored
5
Some Clearances are Still Pending 0 Land Identified and Acquistion in progress Acquired at least 50% Acquired at least 33% -Advances of Requirement of Requirement Paid/Notification 8 Applied for Stage 2 Clearance 8 6 Stage 1 Clearance Issued 6 2 Applied for Stage 1 Clearnce 2
5 15
Low Risk 8
Medium Risk 6
High Risk 2
Poor 0
Average Impact 6
High Impact 2
Low Impact and Risk Adequately Addressed 8 Low Impact and Risk Adequately Addressed 8
Average Impact 6
High Impact 2
Average Impact 6
High Impact 2
18
Above Average
Average
Below Average
Poor
Reasonably Covered 8
Medium Coverage 6
Low Coverage 2
Not Covered 0
Not Adequate 0
Medium Impact 8
Average Impact 6
High Impact 2
Strong 8 High 8
Weak 2 Low 2
2 2
Not Adequate 0
Reasonably Covered 8
Medium Coverage 6
Low Coverage 2
Not Covered 0
Reasonably Covered 8
Medium Coverage 6
Low Coverage 2
Not Covered 0
1 10
Unfavorable 2
Highly Unfavorable 0
Signed PPAs for: 40- Signed PPAs for: <40% 50% of Capacity of Capacity 4 0
Reasonably Covered 8
Medium Coverage 6
Low Coverage 4
Not Covered 0
2 2
1 1 5
Medium Impact 8
Average Impact 6
High Impact 2
1 2 2
Reasonably Covered 8
Medium Coverage 6
Low Coverage 2
Not Covered 0
Reasonably Covered 8
Medium Coverage 6
Low Coverage 2
Not Covered 0
1 10
4-5 Crores 10 6-7 Crores 10 4-4.5 Crores 10 >85% 10 >60% 10 >85% 10 <2300 10 <2300
5-6 Crores 8 7-8 Crores 8 4.5-5.0 Crores 8 70-85% 8 50-60% 8 75-85% 8 <2500 8 <2500
6.0-6.5 Crores 6 8-8.5 Crores 6 5-5.50 Crores 6 60-70% 6 40-50% 6 65-75% 6 <2800 6 <2800
6.5-7.0 Crores 4 > 8.5 Crores 4 > 5.50 Crores 4 <60% 4 <40% 4 <65% 4 >2800 4 >2800
1 1 35
7 8 8 6
70-80% 8
80-85% 6
85-90% 4
>90% 2