For Review Only: Crime, Deterrence, and Democracy

German Economic Review
Crime, Deterrence, and Democracy
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Journal:
Manuscript ID:
Wiley - Manuscript type:
Complete List of Authors:
GEER-100-11.R1
Original Article
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Date Submitted by the

Author:
Duek, Libor; CERGE-EI,
Abstract:
The paper provides new evidence on the effects of a major shock to

deterrence on crime. The collapse of communism in the Czech
Republic in 1989 was followed by sharp reductions in the probability
and severity of punishment and by sharp increases in crime rates. I
investigate whether deterrence was a significant contributor to the
post-1989 growth in crime on a panel dataset of Czech regions. The
results show strong deterrence effects for robbery, theft, and
intentional injury, but not for murder and rape. About 25% of the
increase in robberies and 50% of the growth in thefts is accounted
for by weaker deterrence.
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JEL Classification:
K42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law < K4 - Legal

Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior < K - Law and
Economics, K14 - Criminal Law < K1 - Basic Areas of Law < K - Law
and Economics, P37 - Legal Institutions; Illegal Behavior < P3 Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions < P - Economic Systems
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Page 1 of 29

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Page 12 of 29
Page 13 of 29
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Page 24 of 29
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Figure 3: Conditional probability of conviction
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Page 26 of 29
Page 27 of 29
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Figure 4: Conditional probability of prison sentence
101x73mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Figure 5: Coefficients on year dummy variables
101x73mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Page 28 of 29
Page 29 of 29
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Figure 6: Crime rates: actual versus predicted under unchanged deterrence
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For Review Only: Crime, Deterrence, and Democracy

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German Economic Review

Crime, Deterrence, and Democracy

Wiley - Manuscript type:

Complete List of Authors:

Date Submitted by the

German Economic Review

Duek, Libor; CERGE-EI,

The paper provides new evidence on the effects of a major shock to

K42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law < K4 - Legal

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