ISE 3414 Topic #1: Introduction to POR

Thinking about Probability As a way to get started thinking about probability, suppose I tell you that Tina has two children. Assuming that girls and boys are equally likely, think about the answers to the following questions. Question #1: What is the probability that Tina has two girls?

Question #2: If I tell you that Tina has at least one girl, what is the probability that she has two girls?

Question #3: If I tell you that Tinas oldest child is a girl, what is the probability that Tina has two girls?

At first glance, these questions might seem like they should have the same answer, but really they present us with different information and therefore different probabilities. We will explain this in more detail when we cover conditional probability. MORALS: Probability may or may not be intuitive to you. Based upon past experiences, I assume that some of you are intimidated by probability problems. If probability problems make you scared or frustrated, you need to unlearn that reaction. You can do probability problems, but you need a systematic approach. The key is to understand (and write down) exactly what information is being presented to you. Even if you didnt see the solution the first time, you need to learn the patterns so that you can apply the same process the next time you see a similar problem. 1

Why Study POR? (Philosophical answer) Most real-world systems do not behave deterministically. Most values fluctuate and are subject to variation. Examples: Amount of time it takes to drive to work Market value of stock shares Whether or not a particular medicine is effective for a given individual Level of inventory at a warehouse Amount to time needed to produce a given number of parts

In order to make good decisions, we need to understand real-world behavior. Goal: Be able to make good decisions by understanding and applying the principles of probability.

Why Study POR? (Student perspective) Required for ISE majors. Success in ISE 3424 (simulation) is heavily dependent upon knowing how to solve the kinds of problems that we will address in this course. Your success in senior-level courses (especially SQC) is also requires a strong background in probability. If you dont master it now, you will continue to struggle in future classes. Put forth the effort to really understand probability this time, and it will pay off for you in this course and future courses.

What You Need to Succeed in This Course Ability to think logically Calculus (integration/differentiation) Vector/matrix operations (multiplication, addition, inversion) Basic familiarity with probability (but this will be extensively reviewed to make sure that we are all on the same page) Willingness to work hard, to ask questions when confused, and to be self-motivated Practice, practice, practice!! Do every single problem that you can get your hands on, so that you have more chances to learn all the tricks and how to handle them.