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Energycrisesinpakistan 120329093612 Phpapp01
Energycrisesinpakistan 120329093612 Phpapp01
Center of Excellence in Water Resource Engineering University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore
Energy Scenario
Unfortunately in Pakistan, inspite of tall claims and rhetoric by all governments, real solutions to meet the energy requirements of the nation have never been formulated or achieved. As a consequence, Pakistan economic, industrial and social growth has been greatly constrained. Due to an increasing gap in energy demand versus capacity, while successive governments put power generation and availability of gas as a priority on their agenda, unfortunately, all plans of providing adequate and affordable energy to the citizens have failed to materialize. In reality it is due to paucity of a VISION, absence of robust planning and of a commitment to national development.
(in summers) (In 1995 the generation mix of Hydro-Thermal was 50% - 50%)
Hydropower Energy
Present demand of electricity in country in actual is above 17,000 MW and will be 30,000 MW by year 2017 Energy deficit was 3,000 to 5,000 MW in 2010 and likely to rise upto 10,000 MW by 2020 Identified Hydropower Sites - 41,722 MW Hydropower Potential - 100,000 MW 70 % of hydro potential lies in KPK Current Power Hydropower Generation (6,595 MW): Punjab 1,698 MW KPK 3,767 MW AJK 94 MW GB 1,036 MW
Hydropower Energy
Under-Construction Hydropower (1,943 MW): Punjab 98.5 MW KPK 611 MW AJK 1,202.5 MW GB 30.8 MW Feasibilities under preparation (13,023 MW): Punjab 3,814.4 MW KPK 324.4 MW AJK 65.50 MW GB 8,754 MW
Nandipur Chichoki Mallian Guddu Neelum Jehlum Jinnah Low Head Duber Khwar Allai Khwar Keyal Khwar Khan Khwar Golen Gol Kurram Tangi others
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Munda Dam Multipurpose Project Tarbela Dam Extension Project Kohala Hydropower Project Bunji Hydropower Project Kurram Tangi Dam Multipurpose Keyal Kewar Hydropower Golen Gol Hydropower Dasu Hydropower project Lower Spar Gah Lower Palas Valley Akhori Dam
- 740 MW - 960 MW - 1100 MW - 7100 MW - 84 MW - 122 MW - 106 MW - 4320 MW - 567 MW - 621 MW - 600 MW
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Thakot Hydropower Project Patan Extension Project Phandar Hydropower Project Basho Hydropower Project Harpo Hydropower Yulbo Hydropower Suki Kinari Hydropower Matiltan Hydropower project Kalabagh Dam ?
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N.A. CHINA
GILGIT
AZAD KASHMIR
Mansehra ISLAMABAD Bagh Palandry
INDIA
Sehra (130 MW) Kotli (100 MW) Gulpur (100 MW) Rajdhani (132 MW)
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Nai Gaj Dam Hingol Dam Ghabir Dam Naulong Dam Bara Multi-purpose Dam
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- 2000 MW - 10 MW
5 MW
GB Others
- 5 MW - ---- MW
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Scheme below 50 MW
1463 MW
6819 MW
43786 MW
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Nuclear Energy
Pakistan has around 30 thousand metric tons of uranium (308) Pakistan has two nuclear reactors of 425 MW power and representing only 2.4 % of the electricity production Chashma-II of 500 MW with the help of China is under construction after a lapse of 25 years Pakistan is an un-recognized nuclear weapon state and there are international embargoes on the transfer of nuclear technology This obviously puts a limit on full exploitation in nuclear energy for power generation on a larger scale. Goal is to produced 8,800 MW of Nuclear Electricity by the year 2030 (requirement will be - 6,000 tons of uranium). Pakistan has 1,000 uranium reserves (4 mined, 9 potential reserves. Uranium favorable rocks 12 % of total areas of Pakistan 65 % of favorable sites have been scanned
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Pakistan produces only 0.2 % of its power through coal. The current coal production in pakistan is only 3.5 million tons per year, In Pakistan, there are plans to build only two 300 MW coal-fired plants at Thar. Mostly used for the brick and cement industry. Coal has typical problems, such as a high sulphur content (it produces sulphur dioxide, the source of acid rain), Mineral matter content (leading to ash and pollution problems), Carbon dioxide emission (contributing to global warming) and high moisture content.
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Black Gold
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In Pakistan, smaller windmills are now visible, such as in Badin, Thattha, Dadu, Jamshoro and above all Gharo, where SZABIST set up an experimental research station many years ago. The Sindh Government has recently announced plans to build a 50 MW wind farm in the vicinity in the coastal region at Gharo.
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Wind Energy
Wind energy will help to reduce the countrys oilimport bill and cost of power generation less vulnerable to fluctuation in oil prices Windfall from sale of carbon credits will make wind power economically attractive proposition for meeting our future electricity demand Pakistan has a huge potential to develop wind power. The Wind Corridor in coastal area of Sindh alone has the capacity to generate @ 40,000 MW and AEDB has put in place a renewable energy policy that is one of the comprehensive and investor-friendly in the world Large Wind power projects can start generating electricity within two years, however; Small wind turbines/mills to be promoted ASAP
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Wind Energy
Wind corridor extends from Keti-Bandar to Karachi to Gharo in Southern Sindh Wind data do not show promising results, as annual mean wind speed of @ 4m/s, is too low for large commercial viable projects Specific costs are still too high to assure economic viability Wind farms (in the range of 100 MW) exists in south-east of Karachi of Sindh province Another 41 sites are investigated by PMD for wind mapping and real ground assessment
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Pakistan can be benefited by harnessing the geothermal option of energy generation as substitute energy in areas where sources exist. Most of the high enthalpy geothermal resources of the world are within the seismic belts associated with zones of crustal weakness like the seismotectonic belt that passes through Pakistan having inherited a long geological history of geotectonic events. Present study of the geotectonic framework suggests that Pakistan should not be lacking in commercially exploitable sources of geothermal energy. This view is further strengthened by:
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Geo-pressurized systems related to basin subsidence, Seismo-tectonic or suture-related systems, and Systems related to NeogeneQuaternary volcanism. A few localities, scattered sporadically all over the country, have been studied to evaluate only some of the basic characteristic parameters of the geothermal prospects. The present review study the geothermal activities of varying intensity and nature, associated with different geotectonic domains, and reveals the viable potential of the geothermal environments, which could be exploited for the generation of sustainable indigenous energy in Pakistan.
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Pakistan is meeting 1.50% of its energy requirements from biomass, whose consumption is increasing average at the rate of over 5% per annum. About 62% of biomass users living in rural areas collect biomass for their use and only 24% buy wood. In urban areas 14% of biomass consumers buy, only 12% of these collect wood for their living and 66% use natural gas. At present almost 1,200 plants has been installed and out of the 98% are functional. In addition, the next five year target is 10,000 number of plants. After that program, 27% of the total potentiality will recover.
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Energy Planning
Per capita energy consumption is an indicator to measure the prosperity of any society. It is approximately 500 kwh in Pakistan whereas the world average is 2,500 kwh which is five times greater than that of ours What hurdles are stopping other big players around the world to enter Pakistans energy sector? What is the role of Gas distribution companies so far? Are the citizens of Pakistan being robbed by energy giants with ever rising utility bills? When will the nation have load shedding free electric supply? Have we been able to make long term contracts with the countries to provide un-interrupted supply of energy resources?
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Energy Planning
Will the government be able to provide enough sources to the citizens for a sustainable economic growth? Have we lost the race for acquiring maximum energy resources for future survival? How much depletion in energy resources! What is Government doing to ensure a sustainable supply of energy resources for economic growth? What strategic steps are being taken to acquire energy resources in future? Is private sector willing to invest in Pakistans oil & gas, hydro, coal and renewable industry? Specially Coal and Hydro What are the incentives being offered to the foreign players to continue working in the exploration sector?
Energy Planning
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Pakistan needs to aggressively pursue ways to increase its power-generating capacity. The best options available today are Nuclear and Coal, followed by Wind and Solar. Hydroelectricity can only be pursued after all environmental, ecological and geopolitical issues are settled with a consensus among all four provinces. Pakistan needs to set up at least a Dozen Nuclear Power Plants, large coal fired plants, wind farms and solar plants in the next 10 years to generate about 20,000 MW of electricity. We need to invest at least a billion $ a year in developing the infrastructure and establishing power plants using nuclear, coal, wind and solar technology. We need to cut back on nondevelopment expenditures by at least one billion
What Next?
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Set-Up National Energy Authority (NEA), which should act as an Energy Statuary Body NEA must be Independent and Focal entity NEA lays Strategic Planning and Energy Policy NEA Prepares Integrated and Comprehensive National Energy Plan for Short/Medium/Long term goals NEA must be strong Monitoring Authority for all Energy Sector Projects as per agreed road maps and milestones
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What Next?
Two key elements of a possible solution are: change of attitude and change in lifestyles.
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MITIGATION POTENTIAL
The world we live in is not inherited to us by our forefathers, rather it has been loaned to us by our future generations
African Proverb
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