Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
June 8, 2012
Dealers Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open in the red tracing negative opening in
most of the Asian bourses and the SGX Nifty. Asian stocks were trading lower after
comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke overshadowed Chinas
first interest-rate cut since 2008.
Domestic Indices
The Peoples Bank of China has lowered its benchmark lending and deposit rates
by 25 basis points. The announcement, two days before China is due to report
inflation, investment and output figures, may signal that the economy is weaker
than the government expected. Bernanke said the central bank will need to assess
conditions before deciding if more measures are needed to stoke an economy
threatened by Europes debt crisis and U.S. budget cuts.
Meanwhile Indian shares extended recent gains on Thursday after the rupee
breached the 55 mark to hit a two-week high against the dollar reflecting a return
of appetite for risk. Talks of the government giving a big push to infrastructure
development bolstered sentiments. Although there were reports of the Union
Cabinet deferring a decision on the Pension Bill due to lack of consensus, the
benchmark indices ended the trading day with significant gains.
Markets Today
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
(Close)
1.2
Nifty
1.1
52.6
5,050
MID CAP
0.7
42.9
5,975
SMALL CAP
0.5
29.0
6,314
BSE HC
0.3
20.1
6,636
BSE PSU
0.5
34.9
6,911
BANKEX
2.1
236.7 11,455
AUTO
1.3
119.9
METAL
1.3
133.8 10,269
OIL & GAS
0.6
43.7
0.4
20.6
5,659
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE IT
Global Indices
Dow Jones
0.4
194.8 16,649
9,187
7,743
46.2 12,461
(0.5)
(13.7)
2,831
FTSE
1.2
63.7
5,448
Nikkei
1.2
106.2
8,640
0.9
157.8 18,678
NASDAQ
Straits Times
(0.1)
(1.6)
2,759
Shanghai Com
(0.7)
(16.4)
2,293
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
(2.4)
(1.1)
$43.9
R2
WIT
(1.2)
(0.1)
$8.9
0.1
0.0
$30.1
3.3
1.0
$30.7
Indian ADRs
SENSEX
16,456
16,552
16,617
16,713
16,777
IBN
NIFTY
4,987
5,018
5,039
5,070
5,091
HDB
News Analysis
(Pts)
BSE Sensex
Hang Seng
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,617/5,039 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 16,713 16,777/5,070 5,091 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
16,617/5,039 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
16,552 16,456/5,018 4,987 levels.
Chg (%)
Advances / Declines
China cut borrowing costs

RIL plans a capex of `100,000cr over next 4 years
L&T bags orders worth `2,410cr
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,527
848
Declines
1,172
589
125
101
Unchanged
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (June 06, 2012)

Volumes (` cr)
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
3,329
3,160
169
(1,173)
40,765
BSE
2,177
831
361
470
817
(5,649)
NSE
10,686
MFs
FII Derivatives (June 07, 2012)

Purch
Sales
Net
Index Futures
` cr
Open Interest
2,165
1,034
1,132
8,544
Stock Futures
1,640
999
641
22,150
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Shree Renuka Sugars
Reliance Capital
India Infoline
IVRCL Ltd.
Zee Entertainment
www.angelbroking.com
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
28
7.6
Company
Tata Comm.
Price (`)
chg (%)
220
(2.6)
337
7.2
IRB Infrastructure
120
(2.0)
55
6.2
Wipro
401
(1.9)
44
5.5
HPCL
295
(1.9)
137
5.0
Indian Oil Corp.
250
(1.8)
Market Outlook
June 8, 2012
China cut borrowing costs

China reduced interest rates for the first time since 2008 and loosened controls on
banks lending and deposit rates, in its bid to combat a deepening slowdown as
Europes ongoing debt crisis threatens global growth. The one-year lending rate
and one-year deposit rate were reduced by 25bps to 6.31%, and 3.25%,
respectively. Banks are now given more leeway to offer upto 10% higher than
benchmark deposit rate to depositors and to charge upto 20% lower than the key
benchmark lending rate (previously 10%).
RIL plans a capex of `100,000cr over next 4 years

Reliance Industries (RIL) conducted its Annual General Meeting (AGM) for FY2012.
With cash and equivalents of ~`80,000cr as of March 31, 2012 on RILs balance
sheet, Chairman Mr. Mukesh Ambani announced that the company plans to invest
`100,000cr across business segments over the coming four years. It targets to
invest ~US$3.5bn on shale gas. On its core petrochemical business, RIL aims to
increase its capacity to 25mn tonnes from the current 15mn tonnes and also invest
in operational efficiency projects. RIL aims to become a market leader in retail
business and targets to achieve top-line of `40,000-50,000cr over the next threefour years (current top-line `7,600cr). Further RIL informed that although KG D6
production has declined over the past one year to 34mmscmd, it aims to raise
total gas production to 60mmscmd by 2015. On profitability front, Mr. Ambani
said that RIL aimed to double its operating profits in the coming five years. RIL has
bought back 2.79cr shares at a cost of `1,929cr under its share-buyback
program. Alongside decline in KG D6 gas output, deployment of huge cash pile
was amongst the key concerns on the stock. Clarity over deployment of cash is
positive in our view. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of
`879.
L&T bags orders worth `2,410cr

L&Ts construction arm has won `2,410cr new orders across various businesses
during April-June 2012. The Buildings and Factories IC has secured new orders
worth `1,921cr. The orders are from leading developers for the construction of
major residential towers across various cities in the northern part of the country.
L&T Infrastructure IC has won orders to the tune of `345cr for the design and
construction of viaducts and three elevated stations from Delhi Metro Rail
Corporation which also includes additional orders from various ongoing projects.
Water effluent and treatment business has bagged new orders worth `244cr from
Bangalore Water Supply and Sewerage Board for upgrading the existing water
distribution systems including additional orders from various ongoing projects.
At the CMP of `1,277, the stock is trading at 16.7x FY2014E earnings and 2.4x
FY2014E P/BV on a standalone basis. We have used the SOTP methodology to
value the company to capture all its business initiatives and investments/stakes in
different businesses. Ascribing separate values to its parent business on a P/E basis
and investments in subsidiaries on P/E, P/BV and mcap basis, our target price
works out to `1,553, which provides 21.6% upside from current levels. We
recommend Buy on the stock.
Market Outlook
June 8, 2012
Economic and Political News
Peoples Bank of China cuts interest rates as economy continues to slide

Monsoon 36% below average in first week: IMD
PM's push for infra sector to boost investor confidence: CII
Cabinet defers decision on pension reforms bill
Corporate News
Tata Steel to set up `30,000cr plant in Karnataka

Suzlon to invest `15,000cr to set up a 2,500 MW wind farm in Karnataka
Dr Reddy's launches generic Parkinson's disease tablets in US
BHEL commissions 250MW unit at UP thermal power project
Jubiliant Life Sciences to invest ~`1,000cr across businesses in Karnataka
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
June 08, 2012
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Jun 9 2012 12:00AM
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
9.30
9.80
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
3.40
3.20
Jun 10 2012 12:00AM China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Apr-12
4.90
7.10
Jun 12 2012 12:00AM India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Mar-12
(3.50)
1.70
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Mar-12
(2.60)
(0.80)
Jun 13 2012 12:00AM US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Apr-12
(0.20)
(0.60)
Jun 14 2012 12:00AM US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Apr-12
--
(0.20)
Apr-12
2.60
2.40
% Change
Apr-12
7.23
7.50
Apr-12
1.09
0.10
UK
Euro Zone
Jun 15 2012 12:00AM US
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Industrial Production
Jun 18 2012 12:00AM India
RBI Repo rate
8.00
--
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
4.75
--
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
India
7.00
--
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
3.00
--
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Apr-12
717.00
--
US
Building permits
Thousands
Apr-12
723.00
--
Jobless claims change
Jun 19 2012 12:00AM UK
Jun 20 2012 12:00AM UK

US
Jun 21 2012 12:00AM Germany
Euro Zone
US
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
% Change
Apr-12
(13.70)
--
FOMC rate decision
Apr-12
0.25
--
PMI Manufacturing
Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
Existing home sales
Value
Jun-12
45.20
--
Value
May-12
(19.30)
--
Millions
Apr-12
4.62
--
Market Strategy
June 8, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
(%)
8.0
4.0
2.7
2.5
(3.5)
(6.0)
(5.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
9.6
9.5
9.4
9.8
10.0
9.9
7.7
8.0
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
6.9
7.4
6.9
7.2
56.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
90
75
Reverse Repo rate
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
48.0
Oct-11
0.0
Sep-11
50.0
Jul-11
2.0
Jun-11
52.0
May-11
4.0
Jun-11
54.0
6.0
May-11
10.0
Mfg. PMI
60.0
12.0
Mar-12
(4.0)
Feb-12
1.1
Jan-12
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
(2.0)
3QFY10
3.0
2QFY10
1QFY10
2.0
4.0
4QFY09
5.0
4.1
3.4
Dec-11
5.3
6.0
3.7
Nov-11
6.0
6.2
5.3
6.0
6.1
5.9
Oct-11
6.7
Sep-11
7.0
7.6
7.4
9.5
10.0
8.0
Aug-11
7.5
8.0
8.2
Jul-11
8.5
9.0
12.0
9.2
Jun-11
9.4
May-11
9.8
Apr-11
(%)
10.0
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
CRR
8.00
8.00
60
7.00
45
30
6.00
4.75
5.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
4.00
May-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
May-12
15
(15)
7.00
Market Outlook
June 08, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
134
2,610
1,432
1,647
14.7
14.7
7.0
8.0
19.2
16.8
4.0
3.5
22.8
22.3
1.8
1.6
United Phosphorus
Buy
113
183
5,211
8,191
8,764
16.5
16.5
17.1
18.3
6.6
6.2
1.1
0.9
17.5
16.2
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Accumulate
302
345
2,583
2,715
3,041
15.3
15.3
29.2
32.8
10.4
9.2
2.4
1.9
26.0
23.3
0.9
0.8
Apollo Tyres
Buy
83
100
4,201
13,699
15,184
10.5
10.2
12.1
13.3
6.9
6.3
1.3
1.1
19.7
18.4
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
27
33
7,104
14,798
16,687
9.6
9.6
2.4
3.0
11.0
9.0
2.2
1.9
14.8
16.5
0.6
0.5
Automotive Axle
Accumulate
452
514
683
1,211
1,387
12.1
11.7
50.3
57.1
9.0
7.9
2.3
1.8
27.8
25.7
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,545
1,835
44,710
22,118
24,889
19.0
18.6
115.7
126.5
13.4
12.2
5.4
4.3
45.0
38.9
1.6
1.3
Bharat Forge
Buy
306
372
7,130
7,173
7,998
16.3
16.5
22.3
26.6
13.7
11.5
2.7
2.2
21.0
21.0
1.1
0.9
Bosch India
Accumulate
8,886
9,429
27,900
9,390
10,716
19.5
19.1
420.2
471.4
21.1
18.9
4.9
4.1
23.3
21.8
2.7
2.3
CEAT
Buy
94
164
322
5,067
5,631
8.0
7.6
39.4
41.0
2.4
2.3
0.4
0.4
18.8
16.5
0.3
0.3
Exide Industries
Accumulate
128
146
10,863
5,787
6,595
15.5
17.0
7.1
9.0
18.0
14.3
3.2
2.7
18.6
20.3
1.5
1.3
FAG Bearings
Accumulate
1,484
1,594
2,466
1,531
1,748
18.8
18.5
118.0
132.8
12.6
11.2
2.7
2.2
24.0
21.9
1.4
1.1
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,992
2,221
39,780
26,106
29,296
15.0
15.2
140.3
148.1
14.2
13.5
6.7
5.2
54.8
43.3
1.2
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
76
113
313
8,058
9,025
5.4
5.5
24.8
32.2
3.1
2.4
0.3
0.3
11.4
13.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
688
793
42,236
34,740
39,263
10.7
11.0
44.9
51.7
15.3
13.3
2.7
2.4
18.9
19.1
0.9
0.7
Maruti
Buy
1,144
1,510
33,038
42,683
48,736
7.1
7.5
86.6
100.6
13.2
11.4
1.9
1.6
15.3
15.5
0.6
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Buy
164
216
6,370
11,167
12,516
9.5
10.0
11.3
14.4
14.5
11.4
3.1
2.6
23.3
24.7
0.7
0.6
Subros
Neutral
33
200
1,225
1,393
8.5
8.2
4.2
5.0
8.0
6.7
0.8
0.8
10.3
11.8
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
237
299
63,030 189,676 209,586
12.5
12.5
38.3
43.2
6.2
5.5
2.0
1.6
36.0
31.9
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Buy
33
55
1,575
7,982
8,816
6.4
6.3
5.0
5.6
6.6
6.0
1.2
1.0
18.9
18.2
0.2
0.2
ABB*
Sell
746
498
15,802
8,760
10,023
6.4
6.4
18.2
20.7
40.9
36.0
5.5
4.9
14.4
14.6
1.8
1.5
BGR Energy
Neutral
288
2,077
4,195
4,837
10.6
10.2
30.1
32.4
9.6
8.9
1.7
1.5
18.4
17.6
1.0
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
218
53,309
46,344
46,916
16.5
16.5
23.5
24.1
9.3
9.0
1.8
1.6
21.3
18.9
1.0
1.0
Blue Star
Neutral
163
1,462
3,047
3,328
5.4
6.9
9.6
16.2
16.9
10.0
3.3
2.7
20.7
29.7
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
118
133
7,592
12,451
14,265
5.5
6.1
8.0
9.5
14.8
12.5
2.0
1.8
13.9
14.9
0.6
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
42
67
344
2,622
2,801
10.6
11.0
10.9
13.4
3.8
3.1
0.5
0.4
12.7
13.9
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
53
73
1,351
6,686
7,200
7.7
7.9
10.6
12.2
5.0
4.3
0.9
0.8
25.9
24.0
0.3
0.3
LMW
Buy
1,589
1,992
1,790
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
11.1
9.6
1.9
1.7
17.4
18.4
0.3
0.2
Thermax
Reduce
459
426
5,469
5,514
5,559
8.3
8.0
29.7
28.4
15.5
16.2
2.9
2.6
20.2
16.9
0.9
0.8
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
June 08, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,154
21,669
11,018
12,663
19.9
21.2
70.7
81.2
16.3
14.2
2.9
2.6
18.0
19.0
1.7
1.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
151
23,204
10,035
11,504
23.5
23.8
10.1
10.6
14.9
14.3
2.9
2.6
18.5
19.4
1.9
1.6
India Cements
Neutral
76
2,342
4,423
4,906
18.2
18.8
9.9
12.7
7.7
6.0
0.7
0.6
8.6
10.5
0.8
0.7
J K Lakshmi Cements
Buy
64
79
784
1,938
2,246
19.1
20.1
14.6
16.1
4.4
4.0
0.6
0.5
13.4
13.6
0.5
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
144
3,417
3,444
3,786
25.5
24.9
14.6
17.1
9.9
8.4
1.5
1.3
15.6
16.0
1.6
1.4
Shree Cements
Neutral
2,434
8,478
5,465
6,249
24.3
23.7
151.5
222.1
16.1
11.0
3.9
3.3
21.6
25.8
1.3
1.0
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,385
37,954
20,116
22,655
21.3
22.5
82.1
97.5
16.9
14.2
2.7
2.3
16.8
17.4
1.8
1.7
205
273
1,079
2,014
2,293
22.4
22.4
22.6
26.7
9.1
7.7
1.0
0.9
11.4
11.9
2.4
2.7
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
14
259
2,526
2,792
5.7
6.6
1.8
2.8
7.6
4.9
0.4
0.4
5.5
8.1
0.3
0.3
Hind. Const.
Neutral
19
1,125
4,239
4,522
11.1
11.8
(1.8)
(0.8)
(10.3)
(23.8)
1.1
1.2
(9.5)
(4.7)
1.3
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
120
166
3,993
3,821
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.0
16.9
8.0
7.1
1.2
1.1
16.1
15.8
2.7
2.5
ITNL
Buy
175
265
3,402
6,619
7,925
23.8
23.3
22.0
26.7
8.0
6.6
1.1
1.0
14.9
15.9
2.2
2.1
IVRCL Infra
Buy
44
61
1,179
5,510
6,722
8.8
9.0
2.5
4.6
17.4
9.6
0.6
0.6
3.4
5.8
0.7
0.6
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
68
88
14,545
15,259
17,502
25.7
24.7
4.2
5.0
16.1
13.7
1.3
1.2
8.5
9.3
2.3
2.0
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,277
1,553
78,240
59,559
69,089
12.1
11.5
70.8
76.5
18.0
16.7
2.7
2.4
16.1
15.3
1.5
1.3
Madhucon Proj
Buy
37
70
273
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
8.0
7.9
0.4
0.4
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
33
41
838
5,453
6,169
8.1
8.5
1.6
1.9
19.9
16.9
0.4
0.4
1.8
2.1
0.6
0.7
Patel Engg.
Neutral
92
640
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
6.5
6.3
0.4
0.4
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.1
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
47
1,553
10,592
12,193
8.4
8.4
2.9
4.6
16.1
10.3
0.5
0.5
3.9
3.1
0.6
0.6
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
130
182
1,962
2,789
3,147
10.6
10.7
8.4
10.4
15.5
12.5
2.1
1.8
15.0
15.6
0.9
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
215
265
1,064
6,732
7,837
8.1
8.4
23.5
29.4
9.1
7.3
0.8
0.8
9.6
11.0
0.5
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Accumulate
136
147
6,820
7,392
8,542
3.1
3.1
38.3
42.1
3.6
3.2
0.6
0.5
18.4
17.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
112
6,292
5,151
5,843
3.2
3.1
22.4
25.7
5.0
4.4
0.8
0.7
15.8
16.0
Axis Bank
Buy
1,058
1,476
43,771
16,157
19,557
3.2
3.2
116.4
139.1
9.1
7.6
1.7
1.4
20.0
20.3
Bank of Baroda
Buy
720
925
28,193
15,993
18,918
2.6
2.6
127.3
149.9
5.7
4.8
0.9
0.8
17.8
18.2
Bank of India
Accumulate
348
389
19,945
13,558
15,551
2.5
2.4
61.6
70.8
5.6
4.9
0.9
0.8
16.8
16.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Neutral
Canara Bank
Buy
Central Bank
Neutral
Financials
52
3,054
3,580
4,050
3.2
3.2
11.5
13.1
4.5
4.0
0.7
0.6
17.4
17.2
416
493
18,407
12,061
13,906
2.3
2.3
83.1
92.7
5.0
4.5
0.8
0.7
16.7
16.4
79
5,823
6,838
7,912
2.3
2.4
13.8
20.3
5.7
3.9
0.8
0.7
10.9
14.4
Market Outlook
June 08, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Accumulate
416
468
6,167
5,203
5,880
2.2
2.1
107.5
112.7
3.9
3.7
0.7
0.6
17.9
16.5
Dena Bank
Accumulate
96
107
3,354
3,149
3,522
2.8
2.8
23.3
26.1
4.1
3.7
0.7
0.6
17.7
17.0
Federal Bank
Neutral
419
7,156
2,743
3,131
3.4
3.3
49.7
57.4
8.4
7.3
1.1
1.0
14.1
14.6
HDFC
Neutral
655
96,802
7,393
8,844
3.5
3.4
31.7
37.9
20.7
17.3
4.1
3.7
34.7
31.9
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
537
567
126,288
21,831
27,477
4.3
4.3
28.3
35.5
19.0
15.1
3.7
3.1
20.8
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
830
1,174
95,394
22,209
26,512
2.8
2.8
67.9
81.1
12.2
10.2
1.5
1.4
14.7
16.0
IDBI Bank
Buy
89
113
11,429
8,004
9,589
1.9
2.0
19.9
23.9
4.5
3.7
0.6
0.5
13.8
14.9
Indian Bank
Buy
165
190
7,078
6,312
7,119
3.4
3.3
41.1
43.7
4.0
3.8
0.7
0.6
18.2
16.9
IOB
Accumulate
85
92
6,802
7,354
8,283
2.5
2.4
16.3
21.7
5.3
3.9
0.6
0.5
11.5
13.9
J & K Bank
Neutral
927
4,494
2,535
2,861
3.5
3.4
176.3
184.4
5.3
5.0
1.0
0.8
19.3
17.6
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
241
286
12,137
2,108
2,607
2.6
2.6
24.5
30.6
9.8
7.9
1.8
1.6
20.1
21.4
Oriental Bank
Accumulate
235
262
6,867
6,431
7,315
2.7
2.6
54.4
63.8
4.3
3.7
0.6
0.5
13.6
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
766
1,041
25,983
19,893
23,653
3.1
3.2
153.4
175.2
5.0
4.4
0.9
0.8
18.3
18.1
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
24
2,678
1,440
1,635
2.7
2.5
3.8
4.1
6.3
5.8
1.2
1.1
19.9
18.6
St Bk of India
Accumulate
2,168
2,469
145,472
68,311
79,649
3.6
3.6
230.4
273.4
9.4
7.9
1.5
1.3
18.2
18.8
Syndicate Bank
Buy
96
126
5,782
7,133
8,255
3.0
3.0
25.9
30.0
3.7
3.2
0.6
0.5
16.9
17.1
UCO Bank
Neutral
74
4,942
5,623
6,380
2.4
2.4
16.9
17.9
4.4
4.2
0.8
0.7
16.5
15.4
Union Bank
Buy
207
261
11,372
10,215
11,854
2.9
2.8
42.7
50.3
4.8
4.1
0.8
0.7
17.0
17.5
United Bank
Buy
64
78
2,319
3,551
4,128
2.7
2.8
18.8
22.6
3.4
2.8
0.5
0.5
15.5
16.5
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
57
2,844
2,668
3,001
2.2
2.2
10.6
12.2
5.4
4.7
0.8
0.7
13.3
13.8
Yes Bank
Buy
338
450
11,968
3,209
4,144
2.7
2.8
33.9
41.5
10.0
8.1
2.1
1.7
23.1
23.3
3,844
36,873
11,423
13,309
16.3
16.3
125.3
148.4
30.7
25.9
10.4
8.2
38.0
35.4
3.1
2.7
523
633
6,245
5,835
6,824
6.3
6.7
20.7
27.5
25.2
19.0
9.9
7.3
42.7
44.3
1.0
0.9
1,126
15,318
3,007
3,417
21.1
22.1
38.2
43.8
29.5
25.8
35.1
27.6
130.2
119.9
5.0
4.4
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
106
18,414
5,878
6,799
16.8
17.0
4.2
4.9
25.5
21.5
9.2
7.6
39.3
42.0
3.2
2.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,738
11,513
3,124
3,663
17.1
11.6
103.0
123.3
26.6
22.2
8.2
6.6
34.0
32.9
3.4
2.8
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
576
19,599
5,973
7,000
18.4
18.6
22.8
27.2
25.2
21.2
6.9
5.6
31.3
38.4
3.4
2.9
HUL
Neutral
423
91,346
25,350
29,309
14.3
14.4
14.1
16.4
29.9
25.8
22.4
17.5
82.7
76.2
3.4
2.9
ITC
Accumulate
237
252
184,945
29,638
34,159
35.4
35.8
9.3
10.9
25.3
21.7
8.2
6.7
35.3
33.8
6.0
5.1
Market Outlook
June 08, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
171
11,050
4,667
5,427
12.8
12.9
6.6
8.1
25.8
21.1
6.9
5.4
30.0
28.8
2.4
2.0
Nestle*
Neutral
4,537
43,741
8,731
10,539
21.0
21.4
119.3
147.9
38.0
30.7
23.3
15.9
73.0
61.6
5.0
4.1
Tata Global
Buy
109
136
6,750
7,011
7,711
9.7
10.0
6.3
7.5
17.4
14.6
1.7
1.6
9.5
10.9
0.9
0.8
HCL Tech
Accumulate
497
560
34,448
22,792
25,743
17.4
17.4
37.8
43.0
13.2
11.6
2.9
2.4
22.3
21.3
1.5
1.3
Hexaware
Neutral
126
3,729
1,821
2,105
19.0
18.6
9.8
10.7
12.8
11.8
3.0
2.6
23.7
22.5
1.8
1.5
Infosys
Accumulate
2,453
2,792
140,856
37,615
42,491
31.1
30.6
158.5
174.5
15.5
14.1
3.5
2.9
22.5
20.8
3.1
2.6
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
166
177
1,849
1,758
1,972
17.0
16.6
16.8
18.6
9.9
8.9
1.4
1.2
13.6
13.2
0.7
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Reduce
122
114
2,166
2,028
2,239
15.0
14.8
9.0
11.4
13.5
10.6
2.4
2.0
19.3
18.7
1.0
0.9
Mahindra Satyam
Accumulate
78
86
9,120
7,097
7,812
16.2
16.0
7.5
8.0
10.3
9.7
1.4
1.2
13.2
12.3
0.9
0.7
Mindtree
Accumulate
610
643
2,478
2,172
2,450
16.1
15.5
53.9
58.5
11.3
10.4
2.1
1.8
18.9
17.0
0.9
0.8
Mphasis
Buy
349
433
7,342
5,904
6,320
18.3
17.9
38.7
41.2
9.0
8.5
1.4
1.2
14.9
13.7
0.8
0.6
NIIT
Buy
42
52
692
1,162
1,304
14.8
15.1
7.1
8.8
5.9
4.8
1.0
0.9
16.7
18.4
0.4
0.3
Persistent
Neutral
349
1,395
1,109
1,224
23.3
22.4
37.2
40.1
9.4
8.7
1.4
1.3
15.4
14.5
0.9
0.8
TCS
Neutral
1,240
242,783
57,189
66,329
29.3
28.7
63.2
70.9
19.6
17.5
6.0
4.9
30.5
27.7
4.0
3.4
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
669
725
8,527
5,880
6,314
15.6
15.2
75.9
82.2
8.8
8.1
1.8
1.5
20.1
18.1
1.4
1.2
Wipro
Accumulate
401
430
98,562
41,918
46,879
19.4
19.9
25.1
28.7
16.0
14.0
3.0
2.6
18.6
18.3
2.0
1.7
D B Corp
Buy
193
269
3,538
1,652
1,863
25.7
26.3
13.5
16.1
14.3
12.0
3.2
2.7
24.1
24.4
2.0
1.7
HT Media
Buy
97
148
2,280
2,255
2,555
16.3
16.7
9.0
10.6
10.8
9.2
1.4
1.2
13.4
13.8
0.6
0.5
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
89
137
2,808
1,499
1,642
27.4
28.8
7.6
9.1
11.6
9.8
3.9
3.5
34.6
37.7
1.8
1.7
PVR
Neutral
156
404
625
732
17.4
16.9
12.4
15.8
12.5
9.9
2.0
2.1
8.5
9.9
0.8
0.7
Sun TV Network
Neutral
236
9,304
2,135
2,458
75.2
74.4
20.9
24.0
11.3
9.8
2.7
2.2
26.0
25.1
3.3
2.6
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
452
9,601
9,232
13,557
30.8
31.1
48.0
58.6
9.4
7.7
1.2
1.0
14.5
7.5
3.2
2.2
Coal India
Accumulate
325
353
205,313
68,841
74,509
25.3
25.3
24.1
26.1
13.5
12.4
3.7
3.0
30.4
26.8
2.1
1.8
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
18
27
611
1,984
2,074
10.6
12.0
2.7
3.3
6.6
5.4
0.3
0.1
5.2
6.2
0.4
0.4
Hind. Zinc
Buy
119
139
50,281
13,043
14,223
51.8
52.8
14.8
16.6
8.0
7.2
1.6
1.3
21.2
19.9
2.1
1.5
Hindalco
Neutral
120
22,975
84,652
88,766
9.6
10.5
17.0
18.9
7.1
6.4
0.7
0.6
9.7
9.8
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
649
14,478
39,592
44,910
18.0
17.7
74.7
88.9
8.7
7.3
0.8
0.7
10.7
11.6
0.7
0.7
MOIL
Accumulate
274
296
4,602
1,007
1,091
56.6
56.9
29.4
31.9
9.3
8.6
1.7
1.5
19.0
18.2
2.4
1.9
Monnet Ispat
Buy
343
593
2,207
3,115
3,748
22.1
25.1
59.1
66.8
5.8
5.1
0.8
0.7
15.6
15.3
1.5
1.1
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
June 08, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
60
54
15,386
167
187
66,389
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
8,474
9,024
12.6
16.2
11,959
13,062
78.2
78.6
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
2.6
3.6
23.3
16.7
1.3
1.2
19.1
20.9
8.8
8.0
2.2
1.8
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
5.6
7.5
1.4
1.3
27.1
24.4
3.4
3.0
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
SAIL
Neutral
Sesa Goa
Accumulate
Sterlite Inds
Tata Steel
95
39,178
50,914
60,785
14.6
15.1
9.4
10.5
10.1
9.0
0.9
0.8
9.2
9.6
1.2
1.1
187
206
16,283
9,067
9,316
35.7
35.5
44.5
44.3
4.2
4.2
0.9
0.8
23.5
19.5
0.4
0.1
Buy
97
123
32,665
45,805
49,029
21.2
23.5
16.5
19.1
5.9
5.1
0.7
0.6
11.5
12.0
0.3
0.2
Buy
412
499
39,975 143,088 148,011
10.9
12.1
53.9
66.0
7.6
6.2
0.9
0.8
12.2
13.4
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Accumulate
330
372
62,997
15,513
16,074
74.0
69.7
51.1
48.6
6.5
6.8
1.1
0.9
18.3
14.8
2.9
2.2
GAIL
Buy
322
389
40,826
50,472
55,502
15.3
15.6
35.4
37.0
9.1
8.7
1.6
1.4
19.0
17.2
0.1
ONGC
Buy
263
319
224,881 148,157 150,563
37.6
39.5
31.0
33.6
8.5
7.8
1.5
1.3
18.8
18.1
1.2
1.0
Reliance Industries
Buy
721
872
235,997 325,734 328,669
10.9
11.7
65.8
70.1
11.0
10.3
1.1
1.0
11.9
11.5
0.7
0.7
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
50
91
937
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
7.5
5.5
1.8
1.4
27.5
29.2
0.8
0.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
110
156
3,202
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
13.8
14.7
8.0
7.5
0.9
0.4
11.4
10.9
0.8
0.6
Aventis*
Neutral
2,100
4,837
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.0
104.0
22.1
20.2
3.9
3.1
18.6
17.0
3.1
2.6
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
734
953
15,032
6,196
7,443
18.5
19.5
43.3
50.8
17.0
14.5
4.4
3.5
25.4
24.8
2.4
1.9
Cipla
Buy
309
379
24,774
7,687
8,804
21.4
21.4
16.5
18.9
18.7
16.3
2.9
2.6
16.7
16.8
3.2
2.7
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,618
27,424
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
19.3
17.4
4.0
3.4
22.4
21.0
2.7
2.4
Dishman Pharma
Buy
53
92
427
1,280
1,536
17.8
17.8
9.2
11.3
5.8
4.7
0.4
0.4
7.7
8.5
1.0
0.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
1,991
16,865
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
26.2
24.2
7.5
6.6
30.8
29.0
5.4
4.7
Indoco Remedies
Buy
58
82
530
685
837
15.2
15.2
7.4
8.9
7.8
6.5
1.2
1.0
15.9
16.3
0.9
0.8
Ipca labs
Buy
339
435
4,262
2,850
3,474
20.3
20.3
26.6
32.7
12.7
10.4
3.3
2.6
28.2
27.9
1.7
1.3
Lupin
Buy
548
646
24,503
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
29.7
32.4
18.5
16.9
4.8
3.8
27.0
25.2
2.8
2.3
Orchid Chemicals
Buy
123
178
863
2,117
2,434
17.7
17.7
16.7
22.2
7.3
5.5
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.5
1.1
0.9
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
486
20,521
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
35.7
29.8
13.6
16.3
5.1
4.2
43.1
28.1
1.7
1.7
Sun Pharma
Neutral
579
59,611
9,272
11,080
38.6
38.0
22.7
22.6
25.5
25.6
4.3
3.8
17.9
15.6
5.0
3.9
CESC
Buy
281
342
3,506
5,084
5,512
24.2
23.8
45.2
48.5
6.2
5.8
0.7
0.6
11.2
10.9
1.1
1.2
GIPCL
Buy
60
77
901
1,557
1,573
28.8
28.5
10.4
10.9
5.8
5.5
0.6
0.5
10.4
10.2
1.1
0.9
NTPC
Neutral
155
127,846
74,766
86,549
23.1
23.4
12.4
14.1
12.5
11.0
1.6
1.4
13.0
13.5
2.4
2.2
47
78
1,394
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
5.6
3.7
0.3
0.3
6.3
8.9
3.4
2.5
194
32,949
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
20.3
14.5
1.3
1.2
6.4
8.7
5.8
4.8
Power
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
Market Outlook
June 08, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
69
115
2,881
2,441
3,344
53.0
46.7
21.4
25.4
3.2
2.7
0.3
0.2
8.4
9.1
3.0
2.3
Real Estate
HDIL
Buy
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
301
114,154
80,967
88,684
33.1
33.4
17.9
22.0
16.8
13.6
1.9
1.7
11.5
12.5
2.1
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
78
25,864
22,558
25,326
26.4
27.5
3.2
4.7
24.3
16.5
1.8
1.7
7.5
10.0
1.6
1.4
Rcom
Neutral
66
13,643
21,899
23,740
32.7
32.7
4.2
6.7
15.6
9.9
0.3
0.3
2.1
3.2
2.0
1.7
181
245
1,806
3,670
4,384
8.5
8.5
18.3
22.3
9.9
8.1
2.2
1.8
23.9
24.3
0.5
0.4
zOthers
Bajaj Electrical
Buy
CRISIL
Neutral
1,072
7,519
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
31.2
26.8
14.1
11.3
50.9
46.9
7.2
6.1
Finolex Cables
Buy
38
61
580
2,334
2,687
8.8
9.3
7.6
10.2
5.0
3.7
0.6
0.6
13.7
16.1
0.2
0.1
Graphite India
Buy
89
124
1,747
2,158
2,406
18.1
18.9
12.4
14.0
7.2
6.4
1.0
0.9
14.0
14.3
0.9
0.8
Greenply
Buy
208
309
503
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
7.1
4.7
1.2
0.9
16.8
21.0
0.5
0.4
Page Industries
Neutral
2,994
3,339
887
1,108
18.3
18.6
95.0
120.9
31.5
24.8
16.5
13.4
57.4
59.5
3.8
3.0
Sintex
Buy
56
79
1,515
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
4.1
3.5
0.5
0.5
12.9
13.2
0.7
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
254
392
238
1,042
1,173
12.4
12.5
66.3
78.5
3.8
3.2
0.7
0.6
21.1
20.8
0.5
0.4
SpiceJet
Buy
32
40
1,535
5,647
6,513
3.5
6.5
1.9
4.9
16.3
6.5
38.3
5.5
0.4
0.3
Taj GVK
Buy
61
108
381
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.7
6.7
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.6
1.3
Goodyear
Accumulate
329
374
758
1,511
1,692
7.9
9.0
31.5
41.3
10.4
8.0
2.1
1.7
21.2
23.5
0.3
0.2
HEG
Buy
205
242
820
1,746
1,946
16.5
17.7
22.5
32.9
9.1
6.2
0.9
0.9
10.4
14.2
1.1
1.0
Hitachi
Buy
118
160
272
857
968
6.9
8.4
10.2
16.0
11.7
7.4
1.4
1.2
12.9
17.8
0.4
0.4
Honeywell Automation
Accumulate
2,526
2,674
2,233
1,542
1,739
9.4
10.0
116.1
140.8
21.8
17.9
3.1
2.7
15.5
15.9
Ineos ABS
Accumulate
730
777
1,284
900
1,011
10.2
11.5
35.6
45.7
20.5
16.0
3.0
2.6
15.4
17.2
ITD Cementation
Neutral
226
260
1,535
1,842
11.1
11.1
27.3
38.3
8.3
5.9
0.6
0.6
7.9
10.2
0.6
0.6
MRF
Buy
10,795
13,106
4,578
12,390
14,400
10.4
11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2
8.1
6.6
1.6
1.3
16.5
17.4
0.6
0.5
Relaxo
Accumulate
449
478
539
1,019
1,208
11.0
10.8
44.9
53.1
10.0
8.5
2.4
1.9
27.2
25.0
0.7
0.6
Tata Sponge
Buy
287
420
442
757
875
19.0
19.1
63.5
72.9
4.5
3.9
0.7
0.6
16.1
16.1
0.2
TVS Srichakra
Buy
330
462
253
1,612
1,827
9.5
9.8
72.3
92.5
4.6
3.6
1.3
1.0
33.1
32.1
0.4
0.3
Vesuvius India
Accumulate
375
413
760
628
716
16.4
16.5
29.8
34.4
12.6
10.9
2.2
1.9
18.8
18.6
1.0
0.9
Abbott India
Accumulate
1,449
1,628
3,080
1,661
1,918
9.7
12.0
60.7
90.4
23.9
16.0
4.9
4.0
22.0
27.3
1.6
1.3
Cera Sanitaryware Ltd
Buy
249
288
315
385
444
17.2
17.4
28.9
32.0
8.6
7.8
1.8
1.5
23.4
21.1
1.0
0.9
Jyothy Laboratories
Buy
215
268
1,732
1,315
1,568
8.6
11.1
6.4
10.9
33.7
19.8
2.8
2.7
8.4
13.9
1.6
1.3
Force Motors
Buy
457
680
596
2,346
2,753
6.7
7.0
50.9
61.9
9.0
7.4
0.5
0.5
5.5
6.3
0.2
0.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 07, 2012
Market Outlook
June 08, 2012

Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

OIL & GAS

China cut borrowing costs

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (June 06, 2012)

FII Derivatives (June 07, 2012)

Indian Oil Corp.

China cut borrowing costs

RIL plans a capex of `100,000cr over next 4 years

L&T bags orders worth `2,410cr

Economic and Political News

Peoples Bank of China cuts interest rates as economy continues to slide

Tata Steel to set up `30,000cr plant in Karnataka

Global economic events release calendar

Jun 9 2012 12:00AM

Industrial Production (YoY)

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Jun 10 2012 12:00AM China

Jun 12 2012 12:00AM India

Industrial Production YoY

Industrial Production (YoY)

Jun 13 2012 12:00AM US

Producer Price Index (mom)

Jun 14 2012 12:00AM US

Consumer price index (mom)

Jun 15 2012 12:00AM US

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Jun 18 2012 12:00AM India

RBI Repo rate

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

RBI Reverse Repo rate

Jobless claims change

Jun 19 2012 12:00AM UK

Jun 20 2012 12:00AM UK

FOMC rate decision

Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Exports yoy growth

Imports yoy growth

Reverse Repo rate

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Agri / Agri Chemical

Amara Raja Batteries

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy

63,030 189,676 209,586

Larsen & Toubro

LIC Housing Finance

Metals & Mining

Metals & Mining

39,975 143,088 148,011

224,881 148,157 150,563

235,997 325,734 328,669

Oil & Gas