Estrada may be Manila's next mayor - SWS survey

By Helen Flores The Philippine Star Updated May 22, 2012 12:00 AM 0 comment to this post

MANILA, Philippines - Former President Joseph Estrada would win the Manila mayoral race if the elections were held from May 5 to 8, according to the results of a survey by the Social Weather Stations (SWS).

Estrada was the choice of 46 percent of 1,200 respondents from the six districts of Manila, based on the commissioned survey, a copy of which was obtained by The STAR. The person who commissioned the survey declined to be identified.

He was followed by incumbent Manila Mayor Alfredo Lim with 42 percent and former Manila mayor and environment secretary Lito Atienza with 11 percent.

The survey was taken from May 5 to 8, before Estrada declared his mayoral bid.

The margin of error for citywide results is three percentage points, while the survey results per district have an error margin of seven percentage points.

The former leader moved to his new house in Manila last May 9 and filed his residency at the fourth district of Manila before the Commission on Elections district office at the Manila City Hall.

The survey also found that if there are only two candidates, Estrada would defeat Lim, 53 percent versus 45 percent.

The tandem of Estrada and Vice Mayor Isko Moreno would also win with 66 percent, followed by the Lim-Bagatsing tandem with 30 percent.

Estrada has also a high probability of winning the mayoral race if his candidacy is endorsed by Sen. Francis Escudero (52 percent), Vice President Jejomar Binay (51 percent), by family (51 percent), by barangay captains (46 percent) and world boxing champ Manny Pacquiao (42 percent), the SWS said.

Estrada is the 13th president of the Philippines, winning by a landslide in 1998 but ousted in a popular uprising in 2001 over corruption charges that later led to his conviction.

Estrada ran again in the May 2010 elections but lost to President Aquino.

Source: Title: Population: Sample: Margin of Error: Data Gathered:

www.philStar.com, May 22, 2012 Estrada may be Manila's next mayor - SWS survey People in the Six Districts in Manila n=1,200 respondents from the Six Districts 3%

Number of Respondents

QL

Descriptive Statements:

1.

Estrada was the choice of 46 percent of 1,200 respondents from the six districts of Manila, based on the commissioned survey, a copy of which was obtained by The STAR.

2. He was followed by incumbent Manila Mayor Alfredo Lim with 42 percent and former Manila mayor and environment secretary Lito Atienza with 11 percent.

Inferential Statements:

1.

The survey also found that if there are only two candidates, Estrada would defeat Lim, 53 percent versus 45 percent.

2. The tandem of Estrada and Vice Mayor Isko Moreno would also win with 66 percent, followed by the Lim-Bagatsing tandem with 30 percent. 3. Estrada has also a high probability of winning the mayoral race if his candidacy is endorsed by Sen. Francis Escudero (52 percent), Vice President Jejomar Binay (51 percent), by family (51 percent), by barangay captains (46 percent) and world boxing champ Manny Pacquiao (42 percent), the SWS said.