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UNIVERSITI PENDIDIKAN SULTAN IDRIS

COURSE CURICULUM DESIGN AND INSTRUCTIONAL PLAN

Faculty Department Semester Session Course Code Credit Hour Prerequisite : FACULTY OF SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS : MATHEMATICS :1 : 2011/2012 : THEORY OF STATISTICS & PROBABILITY : SMS3023 :3 : INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS (SMS 3013)

LECTURERS INFORMATION : Name E-mail Phone No. Office Consultation Hour : : : : : DR. NOR AFZALINA BINTI AZMEE afzalina@fsmt.upsi.edu.my 05-4506420 BC2-29 WED: 2-4 pm, THUR: 2-4 pm, FRI: 2-4 pm Others by appointment.

COURSE SYNOPSIS: This course discusses and enhances the understanding of probability concepts, axioms of probability, mutually exclusive event, independent events, conditional probability and Bayes theorem; random variables; density functions and probability density functions; discrete probability distributions; expectation and moment, probability generating function, moment generating function, continuous probability distributions, uniform distribution, normal distribution, normal approximation to the binomial and Poisson, t-distribution, chi-squared distribution, and F-distribution.

LEARNING OUTCOMES: At the end of this course, students should be able to: i. Explain the development of the field of statistics and probability. ii. Analyze the difference between the discrete and continuous probability distributions and their types/families. iii. Explain the concept of random variables. iv. Analyze the concept in mathematical expectation. v. Describe several types of distribution by applying to the concept of sampling distributions. vi. Work in teams, communicate effectively and manage information to improve the quality of learning.

MAIN REFERENCE:
Lindgren, B.W. (1993) Statistical theory (4th edition). Florida: Chapman & Hall.

ADDITIONAL REFERENCES: Casella, G. (2002) Statistical inference. Boston, MA: Duxbury Press.
Freund, J.E. (2004) Mathematical statistics (7th ed.). New York, NY: Prentice Hall. Stuart, A., Ord, K. & Arnold, S. (1999) Advanced theory of statistics (Volume 2A). New York: Oxford University Press. Stuart, A. & Ord, K. (1994) Advanced theory of statistics (Volume 1). New York: Oxford University Press.

METHODS OF TEACHING Lecture, group discussion and group presentation.

METHODS OF SOFT SKILLS EMBEDDED

Activity Communication Skill (KOM) Thinki ng and Problem Solving Skill (KBP M) Life Long Learning and Information Management Skill (PBPM) Tea m Wo rk Skil l (PS K) Leadership Skill (PIM) Professional Ethic (ETIK) Entrepreneurship Skill (KU)

Assignment

STUDENT EVALUATION Your grade will be based on quizzes, a test and assignments. The distribution is as follows: Quizzes Tests Assignments 20% 40% 40%

Students are expected to attend every class meeting and attendance will be taken regularly. Please obtain the lecture notes from your classmates, should you fail to attend the class on that day. Please notify the instructor at least one week prior to the exam, should you know that you will be missing an exam/test/quiz. A score of 0 will be given to those who miss the exam/test/quiz without an advanced notice. ACADEMIC GRADING SCALE Grade A AB+ B BC+ C CD+ D F Marks 80-100 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 0-34 GPA/CGPA 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.0 0 Level Excellent Excellent Credit Credit Credit Pass Pass Weak Pass Weak Pass Weak Pass Fail

SOFT SKILLS GRADING SCALE Scale 5 4 3 2 1 Criteria Has attained the elements of soft skills at the level of excellence Has attained the elements of soft skills at a good level Has attained the elements of soft skills at a satisfactory level Has attained the elements of respected soft skills at a minimum level Poor and need to improve

14 WEEKS TEACHING SCHEDULE:

Week Chapter/Topic CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY & STATISTICS Introduction to course curriculum design and instructional plan. 1-2 Sample space, sample points, events, probability model, counting principle, experiment with symmetries, law of large numbers, subjective probability, probability axioms, conditional probability, Bayes theorem. CHAPTER 2: RANDOM VARIABLES 3-4 Discrete and continuous random variables, distribution functions, functions of random variables, conditional distributions, independence. Learning Outcomes T&L Activities Soft Skills Reference

1. To explain the basic elements of

probability and statistics. 2. To understand the development of the field of statistics and probability.

Lecture, class discussion Quiz 1

Main reference

1. To explain the concept of random

variables. 2. To analyze the difference between discrete and continuous random variables.

Lecture, class discussion Assignment 1

KOM, KBPM, PBPM, PSK

Main reference

CHAPTER 3: EXPECTATIONS 5-6 Expected value of the following cases; discrete, continuous and functions of random variables. Moments, variance, Chebyshevs inequality, covariance, correlation.

1. To analyze the concept of mathematical expectation. 2. To explain the terms variance, covariance and correlation. .

Lecture, class discussion Test 1

Main reference

CHAPTER 4: SOME PARAMETRIC FAMILIES 7-8 Bernoulli, binomial, hypergeometric, negative binomial, Poisson process, exponential, gamma, beta, normal, chisquare, multinomial. CHAPTER 5: SAMPLING AND REDUCTION OF DATA 9-10 Random sampling, sampling distributions of sample moments and normal populations, likelihood, sufficiency, information in a sample. CHAPTER 6: ESTIMATION 11-12 Estimator, mean squared error, efficiency, consistency, maximum likelihood estimators, interval estimates.

1. To describe some widely

used/known distributions. 2. To study characteristics of some widely used/common distributions.

Lecture, class discussion, presentation Assignment 2

KOM, KBPM, PBPM, PSK

Main reference

1. To apply the concept of sampling

distributions. 2. To explain the concept of reduction of data.

Lecture, class discussion

Main reference

1. To explain the concept estimator.

2. To obtain an estimator using the maximum likelihood estimators. 3. To obtain the interval estimates.

Lecture, class discussion Test 2

Main reference

CHAPTER 7: TESTING HYPOTHESIS Likelihood ratio statistics, assessing evidence, decision rules, test the mean and variance (normal population), simple null hypothesis versus simple alternative hypothesis, power function.

1. To explain the idea of hypothesis

testing.

Lecture, class discussion Quiz 2

Main reference

13-14

2. To assess the evidence of the test.

3. To explain the decision rules. 4. To explain the concept of power function.