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Daily Equty Report by Epic Research - 29 June 2012
Daily Equty Report by Epic Research - 29 June 2012
Global market
European markets were down with FTSE down by 67.82 pts at 5456.10, CAC down by 28.31 pts at 3034.81 and DAX down 107.96 pts at 6121.03 Dow future down 87.00 pts at 12466.00. S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is 2.0M & previous 1.7M
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Market Analysis:
The 30-share BSE Sensex traded at the lowest point of the day in quiet trade Thursday. The Nifty index also slipped below the 5,150 mark, but the rupee pulled back below the 57 mark to the dollar. This is the third straight day of lacklustre trade in Indian stocks. Markets were uncharacteristically flat ahead of the derivatives expiry. At 1 p.m., the Sensex rose 25 points or 0.15% higher at 16,993, while the Nifty index advanced 6 points to 5,148 European markets were flat, while Asian stocks saw mixed trade today. Japa n's Nikkei index soared 1.65% on the back of positive data from the US, where pending home sales rose in May . Auto stocks (-0.5%) saw selling pressure, mainly on account of the underperformance in Tata Motors (-1.6%), which fell for the second straight day.. Banking stocks were down on the back of large block deals in private sector lender Axis (-2.3%) and Y es Bank (-2.2%). State Bank of India (-1.2%), India's biggest lender, also saw selling pressure. On the Nifty, 29 of the 50 stocks traded higher. Infra major Jaiprakash Associates (1.5%) was the top gainer, followed by engineering goods manufacturer Siemens India (1.5%).. The market breadth was neutral with 50% stocks managing to advance on the broader BSE 500 index .
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R4 5257
R3 5219
R2 5181
R1 5165
PP 5143
S1 5127
S2 5105
S3 5067
S4 5029
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CURR.RATE
71.5 173.55 429.05 157.6 1223.4
VOL(000)
14372.75 2867.63 4935.43 3775.06 388.26
PREV.CL
69.45 170.1 420.7 155.1 1204.4
NET CHANGE
2.05 3.45 8.35 2.5 19
CHANGE%
2.95 2.03 1.98 1.61 1.58
CURR.RATE
185.85 345.9 97.5 459.05 978.6
VOL(000)
2653.12 2008.34 7002.03 2038.93 5658.99
PREV.CL
191.45 354.7 99.8 469.75 1000.95
NET CHANGE
-5.6 -8.8 -2.3 -10.7 -22.35
CHANGE%
-2.93 -2.48 -2.30 -2.28 -2.23
Stocks to watch
ABAN CANARA BANK DLF PANTALOON
COAL INDIA
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INDEX Nifty
OPEN 5154
HIGH 5159
LOW 5121
CLOSE 5149
CHANGE 9.35
%CHANGE 0.18
ANALYSIS:
Nifty looks bearish Strategy: Sell on rise Support:5010 Resistance:5200
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OPEN 10025
HIGH 10044
LOW 9935
CLOSE 10003
CHANGE 3.85
%CHANGE 0.04
ANALYSIS
Bank Nifty looks bearish Strategy: Sell on rise Support: 9940 Resistance:10060
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MARKET CALLS
CASH SCRIPS ABAN DLF B/S B B LEVEL 388 195 SL1 385 192 T1 392 197 T2 396 199 T3 401 203
FUTURE SCRIPS CANARA BANK PENTALOON B/S S S LEVEL 404 175 SL1 407 177 T1 401 173 T2 398 171 T3 395 169
PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE
TYPE CASH CASH FUTURE SCRIPS RIIL SRTRANSFIN RANBASY B/S BUY BUY SELL LEVEL 412 513 484 TARGET 415.40 518.50 NOT EXE.
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INVESTORS GUIDE
We head into a derivative contracts expiry week, with stock markets having climbed the conventional Wall Of Worry syndrome. The week ahead will be volatile with a Bullish Bias as sentiment has started to turn positive on the back of low oil prices and expectation of better government performance on the back of the expected rejig on key posts being filled due to Presidential elections. Markets surprisingly did not react negatively to the Status Quo on rates announced by the RBI, rating agencies downgrade threats and also ignored poor global cues to end the week up marginally. The only Joker in the Pack continues to be the Rupee, which is limiting inflows by touching new lows despite being very heavily oversold. The same was the sole reason for RBI not cutting rates and easing money supply. Also oil marketing companies in their fortnightly oil price revision stated the same reason for not cutting petrol prices. Rating agencies are also going overboard in threats of downgrade to Speculative grade purely due to the sharper than expected fall in the Rupee. The Nifty now seems set to test the100 dma (day moving average) at 5198 and the Right shoulder @ 5240/50, with support now @ 5074 which is the 200dma. The high Beta Bank Nifty has again started to outperform the Nifty & will test the 100dma @ 10095 & the right shoulder @ 10300. Smart money continues to buy quality with the broader market now showing positive divergence & mid cap stocks recording smart gains. This also indicates that purely by default how much Indias fundamentals tend to improve on the back of low Oil prices & which will actually see Smart Money buy stocks with a longer term horizon. High Beta sector/stocks are being chased with Defensives continuing to underperform. Globally markets continue to be Haunted by rising yields on Spanish, Italian & Portuguese debt, which is seeing equities underperform. However the sharp commodity sell off has also seen Gold lose some of its sheen & it ended near 1 month lows. The same is indicating that the relative outperformance of Gold as an asset class may be over & we could see smart money reentering Equities. The other factor being watched closely is the progress of Rains/Monsoon & the also in the US certain disruption in Oil supplies due to seasonal Tropical Storms which will see Oil prices react. With most of Europe now actually watching the Euro cup more than tracking the Euro, expect rangebound moves globally & our own markets should see some more optimism with prices/stocks seeking higher levels.
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Factors to watch:
Rupee to stop falling? Progress of rains/US storm impact on Oil Prices. Low Bond yields expecting out of turn action by RBI? Volatility ahead of F&O expiry. Government Rejig: Who will be the FM? Nifty support @ 5070 & resistance @ 5240.
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Disclaimer
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