AdaptingtoFireProneMediterranean Landscapes

JonE.Keeley USGSWesternEcologicalResearchCenter UCLADepartmentofEcologyand EvolutionaryEcology

Photo: LA Times

"Thehazardousmediterraneanclimate,highlyflammablevegetation, andruggedterrain,allimportantelementsoffirebehavior,become problemsonlyinthepresenceofpeople.Peoplerecreateandbuild homesinthemediterraneanwildlandsbecauseofthedelightfulclimate andwillcontinuetodosoaslongasspaceisavailable.Peoplestart mostfires,andtheirmerepresencetendstowarpfiresuppression strategiesbecausefireagenciesmustprotectlivesandproperty threatenedbyfiresratherthan'backoff'andbuildfirelinesaround fireperimeters."

CarlC.Wilson(1979) ChiefofDivisionofForestandFireResearch,USFS/Pacific SouthwestForestandRangeExperimentStation

(Keeley,Bond,Bradstock,Pausas,Rundel2012)
Photo:ChrisDoolittle

Wildland-Urban Interface
Ignitions Assets

Property Lives

Habitats Watersheds

Image: Google Earth

(Keeley, Bond, Bradstock, Pausas, Rundel 2012)

(Keeley,Bond,Bradstock,Pausas,Rundel2012)

Regionalspeciespool

Climate

Fire

Soil

Functionaltypes

CommunityAssembly

(Keeley,Bond,Bradstock,Pausas,Rundel2012)

(Keeley,Bond,Bradstock,Pausas,Rundel2012)

(Keeley,Bond,Bradstock,Pausas,Rundel2012)

(Keeley,Bond,Bradstock,Pausas,Rundel2012)

(Keeley,Bond,Bradstock,Pausas,Rundel2012)

Wildland-Urban Interface
Ignitions Assets

Property Lives

Habitats Watersheds

Image: Google Earth

LandAreaPopulationdensity (km2) (people/km2) Mediterranean Portugal Greece California northern southern CentralChile SouthAfrica W.Cape Australia W.Australia Victoria 356,700 227,400 5 23 92,400 131,900 114 87

Vegetation FuelLoad

+++ +++ +++ +++ ++

+

257,600 146,400 756,900

56 153 21

129,400

41

+++

(Keeley,Bond,Bradstock,Pausas,Rundel2012)

BigFireEvents
YearAreaburnedHouseslostLiveslost (ha)

Mediterranean Portugal 2003 Greece 2007 California northern southern CentralChile SouthAfrica W.Cape Australia W.Australia Victoria

430,000 271,000

200 2100

21 84

1991 2007

620 109,500

3791 2400

25 15

2000

8000

1961 2009

40,000 330,000

160 2029

0 173

(Keeley,Bond,Bradstock,Pausas,Rundel2012)

Fuel treatments Suppression

Zoning Planning

Image: Google Earth

Urban structure & landscaping

Areweseeingglobalwamingimpacts??

Year Fire County Month Acres -------------------------------------------------------------------------1889 1932 1970 1985 2003 2006 2007 2007 2009 Santiago Cyn Matilija Laguna Wheeler #2 Cedar Day Zaca Witch Station Orange Sta Barbara San Diego Ventura San Diego Ventura Sta Barbara San Diego Los Angeles Sept Sept Sept July Oct Sept July Oct August 308,900 219,900 174,200 122,800 270,575 161,850 240,425 198,175 166,600

Drought

(Keeley&Zedlerinpress)

(Stahletal.2007)

Global Change Predictions? Warming is only one of several global changes eg. Human demography Warmer temperatures = lower fuel moisture & greater flammability But temperatures rise due to CO2 and there are physiological offsets Timing of lower fuel moisture may not play as important a role since severe winds often dictate fire outcomes

Catastrophic Wildfires Occur During High Wind Events

Mediterranean: Mistral, Meltemia, Sirocco California: Santa Ana, Diablo, Sundowners Chile: Puelche South Africa: Bergwind South Australia: Brickfelder Summer-Autumn High velocity Low humidity
2007 catastrophic autumn wildfires

Global Change Predictions? Fires will become more frequent and more severe But: Frequency and severity are negatively correlated In crown fire ecosystems increased frequency may lead to vegetation type conversion with major changes in fire regime.

Photo by Anna Jacobsen, Pepperdine University

Acknowledgments

MHDP
USGS Hazards Project

Photo: JE Keeley