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Mediterranean Climate Change Impacts
Mediterranean Climate Change Impacts
Outline
The Mediterranean basin Climate change
Mean and extremes
High population density (~60 persons/km2), vulnerability, exposure to climate change.a hot spot
Xoplaki, 2002 Giorgi, 2006
Santorini
Formentor
Cyprus
Do we know?
Mykonos
Venice
Do we know?
CRU
CRU
-0.12C/decade -0.19C/decade
+0.67C/decade +0.61C/decade
-0.27C/decade -0.30C/decade
+0.48C/decade +0.43C/decade
Kuglitsch 2010
Station data
CRU
mm
Toreti 2010
CRU
Station data
Toreti 2010
Extreme precipitation
sign increase
sign decrease
no significance
Toreti 2010
sign increase
sign decrease
no significance
Changes are strongest over humid and warm regions (coasts and river basins)
Fischer and Schr 2010
Source IIASA
Climate change will affect, in profoundly adverse ways, some of the most fundamental determinants of health*: food, air, water.
* Health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity. (Preamble to the Constitution of the World Health Organization, 1946)
Heat/cold waves Heat stress Cardiovascular failure Respiratory diseases Air pollution Respiratory and cardiovascular diseases Vector- and rodent borne disease Malaria Encephalitis Hantavirus West-Nile Fever Lyme disease Water- and food borne diseases Cryptosporidiosis Campylobacter Leptospiriosis Toxic infections (mycotoxins) Seasonality in gastro-intestinal diseases Water stress Skin and eye diseases Infectious diseases Food supply Malnutrition Refugees/Migration
Climate change Long term changes in climate Inter-annual climate variability Short-term climate variability Extreme events
Direct exposures (extreme events) Indirect exposures (through changes in vector ecology, food yields, ect.) Social & economic disruption Health systems Prevention and adaptation
Valencia
Athens
Lisbon
Tunis
Barcelona
Istanbul
Palermo
Tel Aviv
Valencia
Athens
Lisbon
Tunis
Barcelona
Istanbul
Palermo
Tel Aviv
0-64yrs
Barcelona
65+yrs
Bari Istanbul
all ages
Valencia Palermo TelAviv Rome Lisbon Tunis
O3
Istanbul
PM10
TelAviv Rome Valencia Palermo Lisbon Tunis
Population density
Cultural and economic separation between high income countries (northern shore) and mid-income countries (N. Africa, Middle East)
Croplands %
FAO 2007
FAO 2007
EEA 2012
PlanBleu
Migration routes
Would specific vector-borne diseases be affected by climate change? Semenza et al. 2011
Adaptation strategies
Training for assessing health risks of climate change Enabling national public health experts to coordinate the development of a climate change and health strategy, emphasizing the health sector role in adaptation and mitigation Sustainable adaptation:
Strengthen monitoring and disease surveillance Strengthen public health systems in responding to climate change Promote the development of a green economy and health cobenefits of mitigation and adaptation
Conclusions
climate change-related exposures and health impacts are likely to increase in the Mediterranean
high temperatures, heat waves and air quality changes to the distribution and patterns of climate sensitive infectious diseases health risks related to water availability and quality, droughts, food and nutrition can trigger migration and conflict. The full scale of the health security risks need to be further understood additional efforts need to be put into data collection, surveillance, homogenized definitions and partnerships across disease networks
Conclusions
Adaptation strategies:
strengthen health, social and environmental systems and services to improve their capacity to prevent, prepare for, and cope with climate change ensure that all current and future mitigation and adaptation climate change measures, policies and strategies integrate health issues at all levels raise awareness to encourage health promoting mitigation and sustainable adaptation policies in all sectors increase the health and environment sectors contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions share best practices, research, data, information, technology and tools at all levels on climate change, environment and health and to identify research gaps (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010).