SUMMARY POSITIONS

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Key Trade Round Up 19th June 2012

John Lewis Mark Sturdy
Disclaimer

Authorised and regulated by the FSA

Summary

SUMMARY POSITIONS
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18th June SHORT Sep 12 OIL @ 82.71. RAISED Stop @ 87.10, Take Profit @ 76.01

Disclaimer

(1) TECHNICAL : 18th June SELL Sep 12 OIL @ 82.71. RAISED Stop @ 87.10, Take Profit @ 76.01
us@cl.1 114.83 H igh 115

WEEKLY Chart
The markets failure to hold the support at the horizontal and diagonal support at 90.52 leaves it very vulnerable to further falls.

103.37-74 High

110

105

100

95

SUMMARY Positions POSITIONS

50.0% 90.52 High 61.8%

90

85

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Prior High 112.77 May 2011

80
Low 75.71

75
110.71 High
50% Fibonacci retracement support on the bull r un from early 2009 low

70

+
Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2012 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

C rude Oil Light Sweet Sep 12

102.66 Low

101 100 99 98

Daily Chart
The markets pause at the Prior Low at 81.87 is intriguing. But the scope for a rally looks limited. We remain short and look to add on a breakdown through 81.87.

96.10 Low

97 96 95 94

Support 90.52

93 92 91

90.52 Prior High support from the weekly continuation chart

90 89 88

$41.15 Prior High support from the Monthly continuaition chart

87 86 85 84 83
81.87 Low

82 81

$39.99

80 50000

Disclaimer

$33.70

13

20

26

2 April

16

23

30 May

14

21

28

4 June

11

18

25

2 July

(1) TECHNICAL: 18th June SELL Sep 12 OIL @ 82.71. RAISED Stop @ 87.10, Take Profit @ 76.01

The Oil market has corrected once more on hopes of a fresh stimulus and helpful noises from the EU towards Greece; they are prepared to allow them more time.

SUMMARY Positions POSITIONS

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However, we judge the Greek election does not solve the Euro zone debt crisis, adherence to the austerity measures will condemn Greece to recession. Moreover the endless financial rescues are only reallocating the debt. What is needed is a clean up of Sovereign balance sheets via a reduction of debt.
But the process is likely to prove too painful for Europeans used to a high standard of living driven by public spending. Ultimately the oil price will be decided by economic fundamentals, assuming the nuclear issue with Iran doesnt erupt once more. That means the longer the Euro zone debt crisis continues, the longer the Euro zone remains in recession and the risk to the global economy and US economy grows. We judge the oil price is set to trade lower on a weakening economic outlook and advise holding the trade.

Disclaimer

SUMMARY POSITIONS
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SEVEN DAYS AHEAD Authorised and Regulated by the FSA 124 REGENTS PARK ROAD LONDON NW18XL TEL +44 (0) 7849 922573 E-MAIL msturdy@sevendaysahead.com, jlewis@sevendaysahead.com WEB SITE SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM The material and information set out in this research is not intended to be a quote of an offer to buy or sell any financial products. Any expression of opinion is based on sources believed to be reasonably reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.

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