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Technical Trading Guide To Major Markets 19th June 2012
Technical Trading Guide To Major Markets 19th June 2012
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasurynote CBOT US Ten Year Notes treasury Note + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
Disclaimer
summary
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro Stay SQUARE. Stay SQUARE. SELL a break of 1.5278. Go LONG Dollar with Stops beneath 75.0 Stay SHORT Euros with Stops above 0.8230
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei Stay SHORT (Sep12). Stops above 1347.60 Stay SQUARE (Sep 12) Stay SHORT beneath 5490 (Sep 12). Add on a break of 5321. Stay SQUARE (Sep 12) ;
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB Stay LONG with stops beneath 132-26 (Sep 12) Stay SQUARE (Sep 12) Stay LONG (Sep 12) above 143.37.
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling Stay SQUARE (Jun13.); Stay SQUARE Jun13). Stay LONG above 99.05 (Jun13);
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex Stay SHORT (Sep 12) with Stops above 89.90; SELL more on a break down through 81.87 Go SQUARE (Aug 12).
CURRENCIES: The Dollar resurgence against the Euro and Sterling may have run its
course. Note the structure of Sterling Euro: that, despite great volatility, looks for the Euro to weaken.
Summary
Euro - US Dollar
Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
H igh 1.3812
1.6017 High
1.60 1.55
1.4941 High
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
1.25 1.20
1.1880 Low
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
0.8230 Low
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
More
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.31 1.30 1.29 1.28 1.27 1.26
1.2629 Low
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
D ec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
1.1880
N ov D ec 2012
Mar
Neckline 1
1.345 1.340
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
1.3006 Low
Neckline 2
61.8%
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
1.265
1.2646
1.260 1.255
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
1.2291 Low
1.250 1.245 1.240 1.235 1.230 1.225 1.220 6 February 13 20 27 5 March 12 19 26 2 April 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
More
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
1.7050 Low
Note that the market has failed twice at the 1.7050 resistance. And note well the possible bear continuation triangle in the making ... Look closer.
1.3688 Low
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
1.7365
1.85
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
1.7050 Low
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
1.55
Look closer.
1.4237
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
1.3505
1.15 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
More
1.80
1.75
1.70
Summary
1.5278 Low
Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
The market is approaching the important level 1.5278 a break of 1.60 which would signal the completion of 1.55 the continuation Triangle and the break of the successive Prior Lows, 1.50 possibly, the completion of a 1.45 complex H&S top.
1.65 1.40
1.6745 High
1.35
Stocks
1.30
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
S O N
D 2009
M A M
J A
S O
N D 2010
M A M
J J
A S O
N D 2011
M A
M J
A S O
N D
2012 M
A M J
A S
Bonds
1.6062 High
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
1.590 1.585
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
Only a breakdown through 1.5238 would really get the bears going.
50.0%
38.2%
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
1.5238 Low
1.545
1.540 1.535
17
24
31 7 14 N ov ember
21
28
5 12 19 D ecember
26
2 9 2012
16
23
30 6 13 February
20
27
5 12 March
19
26
2 9 April
16
23
30 7 May
14
21
28
4 11 June
18
25
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
79.78 Low 101.70 Low 101.30 Low
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
75 70
99 98 97 96
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
Low 88.73
87 86 85 84
H igh 1.3812
Low 84.92
H igh 1.3668
Support
83 82
79.41 High
81 80
79 78 77
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
Low 77.07
76 75 74 73 72
More
J J A
S O N
D 2009
M A M
J J A
S O
N D 2010
M A M
J J
A S O
N D 2011
M A
M J J
A S O
N D
2012 M A M J
J A S
84.17 high
82.5 82.0
80.33 - Good resistance. Note the prior high supports at 79.41 and 78.28. The markets break up through the down trend diagonal is important.
61.8%
81.5
50.0%
81.0
80.33 low
Summary
79.41 High 38.2%
Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
76.33 Low 76.15 75.58 Low
High 78.28
Stay square.
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
10 17 October 24
31 7 14 N ov ember
21
28
5 12 19 D ecember
26
2 9 2012
16
23
30 6 13 February
20
27
5 12 March
19
26
2 9 April
16
23
30 7 May
14
21
28
4 11 June
18
25
2 July
Bonds
+ CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Liffe Euribor + Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
Support
0.9040
0.85
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
0.8071 Low
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0.55
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
0.8071 Low
0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 A S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J A S O N D 2011 M A M J J A S O N D 2012 A M J J A S
More
0.850
0.8503
0.845
0.840
0.835
0.830
Summary
0.8214 Low
0.825
0.820
Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
Neckline
0.815
GAP 0.8098 - 0.8078
STAY SHORT.
0.810
0.805
0.800
0.7952 Low
0.795
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
2 9 2012 16 23 30 6 13 February 20 27 5 March 12 19 26 2 9 April 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
Stocks
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
767.50 Prior Low Piv ot f rom 2002
700
665.7 Low
650
Interest rates
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
600
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
More
1288.70
1 46 0 1 45 0 1 44 0 1 43 0 1 42 0 1 41 0 1 40 0 1 39 0 1 38 0 1 37 0 1 36 0 1 35 0 1 34 0 1 33 0 1 32 0 1 31 0 1 30 0 1 29 0 1 28 0 1 27 0 1 26 0 1 25 0 1 24 0 1 23 0 1 22 0 1 21 0 1 20 0 1 19 0 1 18 0 1 17 0 1 16 0
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
1 15 0 1 14 0 1 13 0 1 12 0 1 11 0 1 10 0 1 09 0 1 08 0 1 07 0 1 06 0 1 05 0 1 04 0 1 03 0 1 02 0
1076.10 Low
Stocks Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
Sep Oct N ov D ec 2010 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep N ov D ec 2011 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep N ov D ec 2012 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
1 01 0 1 00 0 9 90 9 80
1411 1408.90
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
1280 1270
1259.50 Low
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
Low 665.70
More
12
19
26
2 April
16
23
30 May
14
21
29
4 June
11
18
25
2 July
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
Nec ki ne res i stan ce
3500
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
1827 Low
High 3050
3000
2500
Low 2333
2000
Stocks
CME S&P 500 + Standard & Poors 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 Liffe FTSE + FTSE 100 100 OSE Nikkei + Nikkei 225 225
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
3 50 0 3 45 0 3 40 0 3 35 0 3 30 0 3 25 0 3 20 0 3 15 0 3 10 0 3 05 0 3 00 0 2 95 0 2 90 0 2 85 0 2 80 0 2 75 0 2 70 0
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Euro Bund TSE Ten Year JGB + Ten year Japanese Bond
61.8% 2669 Low
2 65 0 2 60 0 2 55 0 2 50 0 2 45 0 2 40 0
Interest rates
CME rates + DollarEurodollar Liffe Euribor + Euribor rates + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
Low fr om weekly continuation chart 2333 AND COMPLETION LEVEL OF DOUBLE TOP
2 35 0 2 30 0 2 25 0 2 20 0 2 15 0 2 10 0 2 05 0
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
Low 1784 1924 Low
2 00 0 1 95 0 1 90 0 1 85 0 1 80 0 1 75 0 1 70 0
More
S O N
D 2009
M A M
S O
N D 2010
M A M
A S O
N D 2011
M A
M J
A S O
N D
2012 M
A M J
A S
61.8%
2350
2300
2250
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
38.2%
2200
Low 2170
2150
2100
Low 2084
2050
2000
15000 10000
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
6 February 13 20 27 5 March 12 19 26 2 April 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
5000
x1 00
Bonds
+ CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Liffe Euribor + Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
7000
6500
High 6086.50
6000
5500
Summary
Low 4757
5000
4500
Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
4000
3500
Stocks
Low 3250
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
High 6995 from Index LIF FE C ontinuous FTSE 100 Dec 1999
7000
6796-6802 Prior Highs from 2007
6500
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
6000
5500
5490 Low
61.8%
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
50.0% 4757 Low Low 4701.50
5000
Now the market has bounced from the rising diagonal support. Coincident with that is the Fibonacci support too...
4500
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
4000
161.8%
3500
More
J A S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J A S O N D 2011 M A M J J A S O N D 2012 M A M J J A S
FTSE 100 Index Sep 12 5900 5850 5800 5750 5700 5650 5600
61.8%
5550 5500
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
5450
5463 High 5351 High
5187 Low
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
5 March 12 19 26 2 April 10 16 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
5000
x1 0
Bonds
+ CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Liffe Euribor + Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
30000
25000
H igh 18320
20000
Summary Currencies
15000
10000
30000
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + OSE Nikkei 225
1988
20000 10000
x1 0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bonds
Neckline resistance
19500 19000 18500 18000 17500 17000 16500 16000 15500 15000 14500 14000 13500 13000
11390
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
11610 Low
11000
10200
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
Low 7600 6830-6960
6500 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
More
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 Low 7800 8000 7500 7000
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + OSE Nikkei 225
O N D 2008 A M J J A S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
61.8%
9200 9100
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
38.2%
Indeed, the struggle to bet above the fib resistance at 8700 is interesting.
23.6%
8200 8100 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
9 2012 16 23 30 6 February 13 20 27 5 March 12 20 26 2 April 9 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
Bonds
BONDS: Market are now back on good support formed by strong mediumterm continuation patterns - see especially the bunds and the TNotes. So for the moment the bull trends remain in place, if under critical scrutiny.
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
128-22.5
128-01
121-15
120-14 117-09
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
The band 128-01/22.5 remains enormously powerful support beneath the market.
Now look closer.
Bonds
+ CBOT Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
^32
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
More
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
112-25.5 Low
124 123 122 121 120 119 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
^32
J A
S O N
D 2009
M A M
J J A
S O
N D 2010
M A M
J J
A S O
N D 2011
M A
M J J
A S O
N D
2012 M A M J
J A S
137^16 137^00 136^24 136^16 136^08 136^00 135^24 135^16 135^08 135^00 134^24 134^16 134^08 134^00 133^24 133^16 133^08 133^00 132^24 132^16 132^08 132^00 131^24 131^16 131^08 131^00 130^24 130^16 130^08 130^00 129^24 129^16 129^08 129^00 128^24 128^16 128^08 128^00 127^24 127^16 127^08 127^00 126^24 126^16 126^08 126^00 125^24 125^16 125^08 125^00 124^24 124^16 124^08 124^00 123^24 123^16 ^32123^08
Bonds
+ CBOT Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
131-20.5 High 131-30 High
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
The rally is ratcheting better on the supports from prior Highs. And the completion of the continuation Triangle. Note the bounce from the top of the Triangle.
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
More
February
April
May
June
July
August September
N ov ember
2012
February
April
May
June
July
August September
132-26 High
131-30/20
132-5.5 High
131-08 High
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
128-01/22 Prior Highs from 2010/2008
The important horizontals from the weekly continuation chart are added support beneath too.
15000 10000
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
19 27 3 9 2012 17 23 30 6 13 February 21 27 5 March 12 19 26 2 9 April 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 29 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
5000
x1 00
Bonds
+ CBOT Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Liffe Euribor + Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
134.77
Summary
110
Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
105
100
95
90
85
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
134.77 High
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
118.48 Prior H igh Piv ot
119.86 Low
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
109.66 Low
150 149 148 147 146 145 144 143 142 141 140 139 138 137 136 135 134 133 132 131 130 129 128 127 126 125 124 123 122 121 120 119 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109
Establishing good support at the top of the continuation triangle 142.00 or so. Look closer.
109.66 Low
S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J A S O N D 2011 M A M J J A S O N D 2012 M A M J J A S
More
140.52 High
140.23 High
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
The succession of prior Highs ( from both continuation charts and the Jun 12 chart) beneath the market are now good support ...
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
August September October N ov ember D ecember 2012 February March April May June July August
September
143.40 High
Bonds
+ CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
Prior High Pivots from continuation chart 140.23/52
142.85 High
138.24 HIgh
119.86 Low
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Liffe Euribor + Liffe Short Sterling
118.48 Prior H igh Piv ot
147.0 146.5 146.0 145.5 145.0 144.5 144.0 143.5 143.0 142.5 142.0 141.5 141.0 140.5 140.0 139.5 139.0 138.5 138.0 137.5 137.0 136.5 136.0 135.5 135.0 134.5 134.0 133.5 133.0
Yet for the moment the mediumterm bull trend remains intact...
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
9 2011 19 26 2 9 2012 16 23 30 6 13 February 20 27 5 March 12 19 26 2 9 April 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25
10000
5000
x1 00
2 July
144.31 High
146.5 146.0 145.5 145.0 144.5 144.0 143.5 143.0 142.5 142.0 141.5 141.0 140.5 140.0 139.5 139.0 138.5 138.0 137.5 137.0 136.5
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
136.0 135.5 135.0 134.5 134.0 133.5 133.0 132.5 132.0 131.5 131.0 130.5 130.0 129.5 129.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Look closer.
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
130.84
146.0 145.5
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
144.31 High
Interest rates
141.17 High
142.0
141.52
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
138.16 Low
More
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
N ov D ec 2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
N ov D ec
2012 Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
144.0
143.43 High
143.5
143.0
142.5
142.11 High
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
142.0
141.5
The support from the Prior High at 143.43 looks to have held.
141.0
140.5
50000
Stocks
0
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
20
27
5 March
12
19
26
2 April
16
23
30 7 May
14
21
28
4 June
11
18
25
2 July
Bonds
+ CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Liffe Euribor + Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
Interest rates
SHORT INTEREST RATE FUTURES: The breakout of the long-term range in the Short Sterling is important and powerfully bullish.
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
99.5050
98.7750
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
9 8.4 9 8.3 9 8.2 9 8.1 9 8.0 9 7.9 9 7.8 9 7.7 9 7.6 9 7.5 9 7.4 9 7.3 9 7.2 9 7.1 9 7.0
Bonds
+ CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Liffe Euribor + Liffe Short Sterling
Apr
May
Jun Jul
N ov D ec 2012
Feb Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
More
99.20
99.15 Low
99.15 99.10
Summary
Low 99.1150
99.05 99.00
Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
July August September October N ov ember D ecember 2012 February March April May June
45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 x1 05000 July
99.50
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
99.45
99.40
99.35
99.30
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
99.27 Low
99.25
Low 99.2450
99.20
99.15 Low 99.1150 Low 99.1050
99.15
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
15 22 29 6 13 D ecember 20 28 4 10 2012 18 24 31 7 14 February 22 28 6 March 13 20 26 2 9 April 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 28 4 11 June 18 25
99.10 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 x1 05000 2 July
98.26 HIgh
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
Low 94.75
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
99.0
98.5
98.0
97.5
97.0
Interest rates
96.5
96.0
95.5
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
95.0
More
2008
J J A S O N D 2009
A M J J A S O N D 2010
A M J J A S O N D 2011
A M J J A S O N D 2012
A M J J A S O N D 2013
A M
99.3150 High
98.88 High
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
98.3650 High
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2012 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
20000 10000
x1 0
99.50
Bonds
99.3150 High
99.45
+ CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
99.40
99.2650 High
99.35
99.30
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Liffe Euribor + Liffe Short Sterling
99.25
99.20
99.15
99.10
99.05
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
9 16 23 30 6 February 13 20 27 5 March 12 19 26 2 10 April 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July 15000 10000
5000
x1 0
99.5
High 99.10
99.0
98.5
98.0
Summary
97.5
Currencies
High 96.54
97.0
96.5
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
D ec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2012 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
High 99.15 Prior High from August 2011
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Liffe Sterling
98.82 Low
That level 99.10 has unambiguously broken. The bulls are in charge.
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
20000 10000
x1 0
More
August
September
October
N ov ember
D ecember
2012
February
March
April
May
June
July
Commodities
COMMODITIES:
Oil remains under great pressure in the long medium and short-term. Watch our short-term levels to time fresh shorts. Gold, like stocks, is struggling to break up through medium-term resistance.
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
114.83 High
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
50.0%
7.15
$41.15
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
$39.99 $33.70 $41.15 Prior High support from the Monthly continuaition chart
161.8%
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
More
103.37-74 High
110
105
100
95
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
90
85
80
Low 75.71
75
50% Fibonacci retracement support on the bull r un from early 2009 low
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec
70
2012
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
120
115
Bonds
+ CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
110
105
Neckline
100
96.10-36 Prior Low resistance
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Liffe Euribor + Liffe Short Sterling
89.90 Low
95
85
82.63 Low
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
7 February 14 22 28 6 March 13 20 26 2 9 April 16 23 30 7 May
81.87 Low
More
102.66 Low
96.10 Low
Support 90.52
Summary
90.52 Prior High support from the weekly continuation chart
89 88
Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
87 86 85 84 83
81.87 Low
82 81 80 50000
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
13 20 26 2 April 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
Bonds
+ CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Liffe Euribor + Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
1432.50 High
2100 2050 2000 1950 1900 1850 1800 1750 1700 1650 1600 1550 1500 1450 1400 1350 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100
Summary
High 1009
Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J A S O N D 2011 M A M J J A S O N D 2012 M A M J J A S
700
Bonds
+ CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
61.8%
50.0%
38.2%
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Liffe Euribor + Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
31 7 February 14 22 28 6 March 13 20 26 2 April 9 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 29 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
More
61.8%
50.0%
38.2%
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
1616.30 Low
1601.40 High
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
20 26 2 April 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 21 29 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
10000 5000
x1 0
Bonds
+ CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Liffe Euribor + Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
Summary Currencies
The material and information set out in this research is not intended to be a quote of an offer to buy or sell any financial products. Any expression of opinion is based on sources believed to be reasonably reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The material and information herein is general and for informational purposes only. Although Seven Days Ahead endeavours to provide useful information they make no guarantee as to the accuracy or reliability of the research. The derivative market comprises volatility and considerable risks. To the maximum extent permitted by law no responsibility or liability can be accepted by Seven Days Ahead, any company or employee within its group for any action taken as a result of the information contained in this presentation. You are requested not to rely on any representation in this research and to seek specific advice from your accountant, legal adviser or financial services adviser when dealing with specific circumstances.
Stocks
Bonds
Interest rates
Commodities