Regression analysis of relationship between Production of cereals and Percentage Area under Irrigation

Variables taken: Dependent Variable(Y): Production of cereals Independent Variable(X): Percentage Area under Irrigation A priori reasoning: There is a direct relationship between production of cereals and per cent area under irrigation. Null hypothesis: There is no linear relationship between production of cereals and per cent area under irrigation. Alternate hypothesis: Their exists a linear relationship between production of cereals and per cent area under irrigation.

Data Sheet
Year 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 Production (Y) 32.7 25.99 36.59 30.82 29.88 29.03 34.1 30.4 31.34 30.33 31.08 33.38 26.07 37.6 33.47 34.07 33.92 40.75 32.7 25.99 36.59 % Area under Irrigation (X ) 9 10.7 10.1 10.4 10.4 11 10.2 11 12 12.6 12.5 11.5 11 6.6 6.6 13 13.4 14.2 9 10.7 10.1

Y = production million. tones. X = % area under irrigation.

Simple Linear

Simple Linear

Simple Linear Analysis

The regression equation is: Y= 32.500-0.018x+3.84737 R Square value is 0 which shows that there is no relationship. No variation in production can be explained by the increase or decrease in percentage of irrigated area. The value has to be closer to 1 to show any relationship. Significance value is very high at .969 which suggests that there is no relationship between Production and Irrigation. It signifies random relation between the two. Slope of -0.010 means that for a unit change in acreage under irrigation, production of cereals decrease by 0.010 units, which is meager and shows that there is very little relation between the two.

Log Linear

Log Linear

Analysis

The regression equation is: Log Y= 1.562-0.053log x The strength of the association is 0.9% that shows 0.9% variation in Y is accounted for by the variation in X. The log-linear model tells that for one percentage change in percentage of area under irrigation, the production of cereals changes by 0.053 percentage inversely. (Slope value measures the elasticity) Since the significance level is at 0.701we do not reject the hypothesis that there is no linear relationship.

Semi Log

Semi Log

Analysis

The regression equation is: Ln Y=-15.015+0.009X R-Square value is 0.184 which reveals that dependent variable is poorly explained by independent variable and also there is poor association between them. For an absolute unit change in time, production of cereals increases by 0.9%. Since the significance level is at 0.076 we reject the null hypothesis that there is linear relationship.

Linear Trend

Linear Trend

Analysis

The regression equation is Y= -583.391+ 0.308x +3.454 The strength of the association is 19.4% that shows 19.4% variation in Y is accounted for by the variation in t. The trend analysis shows a positive trend in the production cereals as every year, the production of cereals on an average increased 0.308 million tones. Since the significance level is at .067, we do not reject the hypothesis that there is a non-linear relationship. Slope of 0.440 means that for a unit change in acreage under irrigation, production increase by 0.440 units, which shows that there is some amount of direct relationship between the two.

Cubic

Cubic

Analysis

The regression equation is : Y= 49.463-0.509 x^2 + 0.032 x^3+10.315 The quadratic equation best explains the regression between production of cereals and percentage area under irrigation. In this case, 47.9% of variance in production of food grains over the years can be explained by area under irrigation. Since the significance level of t-test of cubic equation is 0.003, it lies in the region of acceptance. Thus the null hypothesis that there is no relationship between the two variables is rejected.

Summary Table

Particulars Simple Linear Log Linear Semi Log Linear Trend Cubic

Equation

Constant

Slope

t Value

Sig Level

R2

Y= 32.500-0.018x+3.84737 Log Y= 1.562-0.053log x Ln Y=-15.015+0.009X Y= -583.391+ 0.308x +3.454 Y= 49.463-0.509 x^2 + 0.032 x^3+10.315

32.500 1.562 -15.015 -583.391 49.463

-0.018 -0.053 0.009 0.308

-0.039 -0.390 1.897 1.962 -3.618, 3.610

0.969 0.701 0.076 0.067 0.003, 0.002

0.000 0.009 0.184 0.194 0.479

THANK YOU
Our Team
Name
Manu Thomas Milind Geete Sachin Tanajirao Pethkar V Ramesh Vandana Kumari Varun Kappal Julian Tobias

Roll No.
U311077 U311078 U311087

U311096
U311098 U311099 U511003