POPULATION CHANGE Objective of the lesson At the end of the lesson the student should be able to : a.

Explain three components of population change b. Explain the rate of natural increase and the growth rate c. Explain what is meant by the demographic transition d. Calculate the population projection at time using : 1. Geometric model 2. Exponential model e. Calculate the doubling and tripling time

Population change has three components : births, deaths, and migration. As people are born, die, or move, their total numbers in an area change. During most of history, world population increased very slowly, but during the 20th century, this growth has accelerated.

 HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTH 1 billion in 1804 2 billion in 1927 (123 years later) 3 billion in 1960 (33 years later) 4 billion in 1974 (14 years later) 5 billion in 1987 (13 years later) 6 billion in 1999 (12 years later)

The most basic method of calculating numerical population change over time is the balancing equation, shown below. P1 + (B - D) + (I - E) = P2 Where P2 is the population at the later date, P1 is the population at the earlier date; B is births and D is deaths between the two dates; and I is immigration (or inmigration) and E is emigration (or out-migration) between the two dates.

Example : Components of the population equation for Country A, mid-year 1990 to mid-year 1991

(Thousands) -----------------------------------------------------------------------------Estimated population, mid-year 1990 49142.4 Births 567.6 Deaths 580.0 Natural change -12.4 Net migration -10.5 Total change -22.9 Estimated population, mid year 1991 49119.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Natural Increase Natural increase is the surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths in a population in a given time period. NI = B - D Where NI is the natural increase during a period and B is the number of births and D is the number of deaths during that period.

Rate of natural increase

The rate of natural increase is the rate at which a population is increasing (or decreasing) in a given year due to a surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths, expressed as a percentage of the base population. This rate does not include the effects of immigration or emigration. Births in 2000 - deaths in 2000 Rate of NI = -----------------------------------------Total population 2000 (mid-year) K = constant = 100 xK

Growth Rate The growth rate is the rate at which a population is increasing (or decreasing) in a given year due to natural increase and net migration, expressed as a percentage of the base population. The growth rate takes into account all components of population growths : births, deaths, and migration. Growth rate = Rate of natural increase + Net migration rate. Net Migration rate = ( Immigration - Emigration ) / Mid year population A negative growth rate means that an area is losing population.

The Demographic Transition

The demographic transition refers to the change that populations undergo from high rates of births and deaths to low rates of births and deaths. The four stages of the demographic transition :

Stage I
Stage II

Stage III
Stage IV

: High birth rate, high death rate = little or no growth : High birth rate, falling death rate = high growth : Declining birth rate, relatively low death rate = slowed growth : Low birth rate, low death rate = very low population growth.

Stage I : Birth rate : 38 per 1,000 ; Death rate : 32 per 1,000 Rate of natural increase : 0.6 percent (Finland in 1785-1790) Stage II : Birth rate : 38 per 1,000 ; Death rate : 24 per 1,000 Rate of natural increase : 1.4 percent (Finland in 1825-1830) Stage III: Birth rate : 29 per 1,000 ; Death rate : 17 per 1,000 Rate of natural increase : 1.2 percent (Finland in 1910-1915) Stage IV: Birth rate : 12 per 1,000 ; Death rate : 10 per 1,000 Rate of natural increase : 0.2 percent (Finland in 1996)

Techniques of Projection The very simplest techniques of all just project the population according to some mathematical formula so that the population at time t + 1 is simply a function of the population at time t, Pt+1 = f (Pt) = Pt + Births - Deaths +Immigrants - Emigrants Very little information on the population prior to time t is used. The 2 methods for population projection are :

1. Geometric model : Pt = P0 (1 + r)t

2. Exponential model : Pt = P0 . e rt

where r is growth rate.

Assumes additions/deletions happen once year: Absolute change = P1 P0 Rate of change = r = (P1 P0) / P0
if r > 0; then population growth if r < 0; then population decline

Doubling Time From exponential model Pt = P0 . e rt Pt / P0 = e rt 2 = e rt ln 2 = rt --> t = ln 2 / r = 0.693 / r Pt / P0 = e rt 3 = e rt ln 3 = rt --> t = ln 3 / r =1.099 / r

Tripling Time

Example : In Indonesia, 2000 : r = 1.76 % / year Doubling time : 0.693/0.0176 = 39 years. The 2000 population was 200,000,000 and if it doubled in 39 years The 2039 population would be 400,000,000.

Exercise :

1. Population in 1980 : 694,759 and 1990 : 858,435. Compute : r (growth rate /year), doubling time and estimated Population in 2000, if r is constant.
2. From the census 1990, population in West Java : 35,378,365 with growth rate (r) for periods 1990 - 2000 is 1.70 % per year. Compute : population projection in 1995 and 2000 ?

3. Population growth rate of a country is 2%, it means that : A. Doubled in number every year B. For year t+1 adding 2 % from the total population at year t C. In 10 - year time, the population will be doubled in number D. In 20 year time, the population will be doubled in number E. In 50-year time, the population will be doubled in number 4. The total population can be calculated from the equation : A. Linier regression B. Quadratic regression C. Normal distribution D. geometric E. Total Births Total Deaths 5. If there is a constant growth population per year i.e 2%, the population will be double in : . years

6. If there is a constant growth population per year i.e 1 %, the population will be double in : years
7. If at the beginning the total population is 1 million and the growth rate, r = 2%, in 5-year time the total population, calculated with geometric equation, is A. 1.1 million B. 1.2 million C. 1.02 million D. 1.104 million E. 2.488 million 8. If question no. 7 is calculated by exponential formula, the result is : A.1.1 million B.1.2 million C.1.104 million D.1.105 million E.2.488 million

Table : Estimated mid-year population, Country X, 1990 ___________________________________________________________ Age group Total Males Females no. of live births no. of deaths ___________________________________________________________ 0- 4 8460 4331 4129 25 5- 9 8131 4071 4060 5 10 - 14 7941 3996 3945 1 2 15 - 19 6516 3426 3090 414 4 20 - 24 4210 2324 1886 493 4 25 - 29 3248 1768 1480 341 5 30 - 34 2804 1489 1315 277 4 35 - 39 2606 1212 1394 194 5 40 - 44 2824 1389 1435 75 5 45 - 49 2323 1144 1179 10 8 50 + 8951 4025 4926 1 333 Total 58014 29175 28839 1806 400

Compute : 1. The child/woman ratio (child aged 0-4/women aged 15-49) 2. The crude birth rate 3. The general fertility rate 4. Age specific fertility rate 5. The total fertility rate 6. The crude death rate 7. Age specific death rate for aged : 40-44 and 45-49

Homework
Answer all the questions above (use MS Word) Send to crpfkunpad@gmail.com Subject Example: GroupA1VSPC