HEIDELBERG CENTER PARA AMRICA LATINA CENTRO DE EXCELENCIA EN INVESTIGACIN Y DOCENCIA MASTER GOVERNANCE OF RISKS AND RESOURCES

Water in context of climate change in Chile

Modulo: Water in context of Climate Change aspects of mitigation and adaption in the context of sustainability

Profesor: Siegmund

Vassil Apostolowski; Edgardo Navarro; Marco Quijada

07 Noviembre -2012

La tierra enfrenta un cambio climtico derivado de la actividad del hombre. Este cambio excede en magnitud y rapidez a las variaciones ocurridas en los ltimos 10.000 aos y plantea problemas importantes de adaptacin y planificacin. Con la escasa informacin disponible se estiman las variaciones de temperatura y precipitacin que pueden tener lugar en Chile y los eventuales impactos sobre la produccin nacional.

The earth is facing a climatic change derived from human activity. The extent and velocity of such change exceed all variations which have taken place during the last 10,000 years, thus possing major adaptation and planning problems. Based on the scarce information available, an estimation is made of the variations in temperature and precipitation which may be experimented in Chile, as well as the eventual impact on national production.

The climate on earth has constantly changed through the geological time. The climate during the quaternary period characterizes itself through repeated oscillaT he climate on earth has constantly changed through the geological time. The climate during the quaternary period characterizes itself through repeated oscillations in the average temperatures, which determinates the so-called glacial-interglacial cycles. Before the industrial revolution climate changes were caused by natural causes, but during the XX century men have started to significantly interfere in the development of the planet. The change of perspective represents an unprecedented phenomenon due to its magnitude and the velocity, with which its taking place, and also due to the consequences which it could implicate for a overpopulated world and for the extreme longing for resources.tions in the average temperatures, which determinates the so-called glacial-interglacial cycles. Before the industrial revolution climate changes were caused by natural causes, but during the XX century men have started to significantly interfere in the development of the planet. The change of perspective represents an unprecedented phenomenon due to its magnitude and the velocity, with which its taking place, and also due to the consequences which it could implicate for a overpopulated world and for the extreme longing for resources.

Approximations indicate that within the next 50 to 100 years global warming will increase the average superficial temperature of the planet round 2,3 1,4C. The margin of error shows the high grade of incertitude regarding the approximation, but the estimated value exceeds the highest registered during the past 10.000 years. The velocity with which occurs the change represents a severe threat for biological and cultural adaptation processes.
Situation in Chile Temperatures For the year 2030 for latitudes corresponding to Arica (18S) and Chilo (42-43 S) the results of the atmospheric models and the Australian estimations predict a warming of 2 to 4 respective. Its expected that the impact in the regions in the extreme South will be even bigger, due to its proximity to the Antarctic ice. Precipitations More uncertain than the prediction of the rising of the temperature are the expected changes regarding the precipitations. Results of different numeric modeling show high regional discrepancies. In general terms, a rising of the air temperature would increment the atmospheric content of water steam. Due to this, the convective meteorological systems will gain intensity.

A MULTICLIMATIC COUNTRY

Continental and oceanic warming cooling: Since the late 70 ocean temperatures off the coast of Chile and the air temperature over continental Chile have trended mixed, represented by color shading on this map. While the ocean surface and the air in contact with him has cooled more than 0.3 C every 10 years, the air over the Andes Mountains has warmed similar magnitude. Notably, global climate change due to increased greenhouse gas explains, at least partially, both heating and cooling oceanic continental. The south-eastern area of the Pacific Ocean and the west coast of South America experienced an abrupt warming in the middecade of the 70. The causes of this "climate jump" are not fully known, but most hypotheses link it to a fluctuation associated with natural factors in the form of a similar phenomenon, but on a larger scale, the child - Southern Oscillation. Jumping mid 70 clearly shows the evolution of the air temperature measured at coastal stations and on the continent, exhibiting an increase of more than two degrees during

Temperature changes between 1975 - 2005

The positive changes (warming) in all regions are greater in scenario A2.
The average temperature change in scenario A2 regarding the actual climate in continental Chile oscillates between 2 and 4, being more accentual in the Andean regions and the eastern plains, diminishing from North to South. Only in the austral region in scenario B2 we can observe little sectors where the warming will be below 1.Seasonally, warming is higher in summer passing 5 in some higher sectors of the Andes .

In the Chilean highlands precipitations increment in spring and summer, being more significant in spring in the I region in scenario A2 and more extended to the II region in scenario B2.In the small north the increase of precipitations is higher in scenario B2 the covering the whole Chilean territory between 20 and 33 S in autumn. In winter it only affects the Andean region with a major increase in the northern half. In Central Chile we can observe a general reduction of precipitations in scenario A2, condition which is maintained in scenario B2, with the exception of latitudes south of 33 S in autumn. The loss is of around 40% in lower lands gaining in magnitude towards the Andes banks in summer, but reducing itself in autumn and winter in scenario B2. The Southern Region shows a transition to the amounts of the actual climate during autumn and winter, which is faster in scenario B2. In summer the reduction of precipitations lies around 40% and in spring around 25%. In the austral regions the rain losses are around 25% in summer, but precipitations will normalize towards winter. There is a little increase of rain throughout the year in the extreme south.

SITUATION IN CHILE ACCORDING TO THE 4TH REPORT OF THE IPCC: PROJECTIONS Precipitaciones Temperaturas

Fig.1: Cmo ser el clima de Chile a fines del siglo 21?

Water resources: Due to abnormalities associated to El io/La ia a high impact regarding availableness of energy and restrictions of water disposability in central Chile is expected Salinization/Desertification: In northern Chile climate change may lead to salinization and desertification of agricultural land Agriculture: Studies for different countries, including Chile, indicate, that in the future crops of a number of cultivations will be dropping Forest fires: Incidence risk increase due to Fuente: AR4, IPCC (2007) climate change

Norte Grande Sobre el altiplano aumentan las precipitaciones en primavera y verano, siendo ms significativas en primavera en la I Regin bajo el escenario severo, y ms extendidas hacia la II Regin bajo el escenario moderado. Norte Chico Se incrementan las precipitaciones en otoo, pero en invierno afecta solo a la regin andina, con mayor incremento en la mitad norte.
IV

XV I

II

III

Domina el calentamiento en todas las regiones, siendo mayor para el escenario severo, donde se aprecia un aumento sobre Chile continental entre 2 y 4C respecto al clima actual. Se acenta ms hacia los sectores andinos y disminuye de norte a sur. Slo en la Regin Austral bajo el escenario moderado, hay sectores pequeos con calentamiento menor a 1C. Estacionalmente, el calentamiento es mayor en verano, excediendo los 5C en algunos sectores altos de la Cordillera de los Andes.

Impacto Hidrolgico
Por aumento de temperatura, habr reduccin del rea andina capaz de almacenar nieve Ello provocar incrementos en las crecidas invernales de los ros, particularmente en el sector cordillerano comprendido entre las latitudes 30 y 40S, que corresponde a las regiones de mayor productividad desde el punto de vista silvo-agropecuario y donde se ubica la generacin hidroelctrica del sistema interconectado.

Zona Central Bajan hasta un 40% en las tierras bajas, ganando en magnitud hacia la ladera andina durante el verano, reducindose en otoo e invierno bajo un escenario moderado. Zona Sur Durante el verano, la disminucin es del orden de 40%, reducindose en primavera a un 25%. Zona Austral Presenta prdidas estivales de un 25%, pero se normaliza hacia el invierno, y existe un leve aumento en el extremo sur que prevalece todo el ao.

V RM VI VII VIII IX XIV

Nivel del Mar

X

XI

XII

Observaciones desde 1961 muestran que la temperatura promedio del ocano global, ha aumentado hasta en profundidades de al menos 3000 metros, y que el ocano ha estado absorbiendo ms del 80% del calor adicionado al sistema climtico. Tal calentamiento hace que el agua de mar se expanda, contribuyendo al aumento del nivel del mar. Frente a la costa de Chile existe ya una disminucin en el nivel del mar desde el sector norte, con algo ms de 20 cm, hasta el mar circumpolar, donde las alzas bordean los 10 cm. Esto hace prever alzas entre 28 y 16 cm, bajo el escenario severo y entre 24 y 14 cm para el escenario moderado hacia fin de siglo.

Fuentes: Estudio de Variabilidad Climtica para Chile en el Siglo 21, CONAMA, 2007; IPCC, Cuarto Informe de Evaluacin 2007.

How to confront climate change in Chile? Water resources: Determinate degree of vulnerability of the natural depressions Biodiversity: Identify most vulnerable ecosystems, habitat and species Refresh knowledge regarding its vulnerability facing climate change Energy: Determinate vulnerability of the generation of hydroelectric energy in Chile Infrastructure, urban areas and coasts: Evaluate impacts in the major infrastructure, in the coast and incorporate planning instruments Fishing: Estimate vulnerability of fishing resources Health: Strengthen health systems regarding climate change Formulation of a national and sectorial adaption plans to climate change

Cmo enfrentar el cambio Climtico en Chile/