State of Afghanistan

Dr Ashok Behuria IDSA

Facts

Total Population: 32.7 million

Pashtuns constitute 44 % of the population (ANA-45%, ANP-42%), Tajiks constitute 25% of the population (ANA-35%, ANP-42%), Hajaras constitute 10% of the population (ANA-10%, ANP-5%), Uzbeks constitute 8% of the population (ANA-6%, ANP-6%)

ANSF

The total number of ANSF is 344,108 (The goal for ANA by November 2012 is 195,000 soldiers and for ANP is 157,000). The attrition rate which was as high as 4.2% in December 2009 has come down to about 0.8% by March 2012. The pay package for the soldiery varies from $245 a month for a soldier, $535 a month for a major, $805 a month for Brigadier to $1095 a month for a General.

International Presence

As of August 2012 there are roughly 84,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. (includes troops under ISAF and Operation Enduring Freedom. In addition there are about 34,550 foreign troops in different capacities. Apart from these, there are about 90,000 private defence department contractors (primarily employed by US companies, but many of them are non-Americans), 19,000 private security contractors (most of them local nationals) and about 12,000 civilian US government officials in Afghanistan. US War Expenditure: The US has spent about $443.5 billion in war efforts alone during 2001-2011. It will spend an additional $113 billion in 2012. Annual US developmental aid to Afghan government: About $1 billion a year during 2001-2009. Touched $4 billion in 2010 and stood about $2.3 billion in 2011-2012.

Security Situation

The number of insurgent attacks (IEDs, Mines, Direct and Indirect attacks), throughout 2011-2012: About 500+ per week. Green on blue attacks (ANSF against Allied troops): 21 attacks in 2011 causing 35 deaths, 32 attacks between January-August 21, 2012 causing 40 deaths (26 Americans)

As of August 31, 2012 there have been at least 2,000 U.S. fatalities and 1120+ non U.S. fatalities in Afghanistan. The US has lost about 186 helicopters and 25 aircraft during 2001-12.
Corresponding ANSF casualties : On an average there have been about 900 casualties every year since 2007. (2011- 1400 and 2012 till July -1000) Civilian casualties: 3000+ in 2011, 1100 till July 2012 (77% due to militants)

Poppy cultivation: It has increased since 2001. From about 70,000 hectares under poppy cultivation (37% of global cultivation) in 2000, it rose consistently to about 180,000 hectares (82% of global cultivation) in 2008. It has since come down to about 125,000 hectares (63% of global cultivation) in 2011. The provinces that top in poppy cultivation are Helmand, Kandahar, Farah, Uruzgan and Nangarhar in that order. Poppy production: From about 3,276 Metric tonnes (70% of global production) in 2000 to about 8,200 MTs (92% of global production) in 2008 and has come down to 5,800 Mts (74% of global production) in 2011. In terms of governance, in the global annual corruption perception index (brought up by Transparency International) Afghanistan has risen from 117th position (out of 159 countries) in 2005 to 180th position (out of 182 countries) in 2011. IDPs: 35200 till December 2011

Power situation: Installed capacity (diesel, hydro and renewable) for power production: 1028 MW, Operational capacity 60%, 15% of households in urban centres and 6% of households in rural areas have access to electricity. Education: Less than a million are enrolled in primary/secondary education). Proportion of boys to girls is 5:3 Healthcare: Basic package of Health Care (BPCH) programme is now being implemented in 82% of the districts in Afghanistan (it was 9% in 2002). Asylum applications from Afghanistan which had gone up to 52000+ in 2001, had come down to 9900 in 2009. It has increased consistently since 2009, to about 36000 in 2011.

Assured Help Post-2014

Afghan Central Bank estimated in early 2012 that Afghanistan would require about $6 billion a year for a decade to sustain the pace of economic development. On top of it, in May 2012, in Chicago NATO Summit it was estimated that Afghanistan will require about $4.1 billion to maintain a force-strength of about 228,500 beyond 2014. However, US could only muster pledge of about $1.3 billion from its allies. Amid talks of donor fatigue and war weariness, in July 2012, representatives from about 80 nations and international organisations pledged $16 billion in aid over four years. Afghanistan received about $35 billion in aid during 2001-2010, but much of it could not reach the people, amid allegations of widespread corruption and poor implementation of programmes aimed at reconstruction and development. Under mutual accountability provisions, about 20% of the pledged amount will be contingent on Afghan government ensuring economic reforms and good governance.

Afghan government has held investment in agriculture and mining sector as critical for boosting economic growth. It is believed that Afghanistan has up to $1 trillion worth of mineral wealth. China and India have expressed their interest in the minerals of Afghanistan and bid for Iron, Copper and hydrocarbon among other things. However, until and unless Afghanistan stabilizes, it would difficult for countries invest there. In the absence of international help, the security situation is unlikely to improve beyond 2014.

Analysis: Half Glass Full

The engagement of the international community during the last one decade has laid the foundations of a New Afghanistan. The US may not leave Afghanistan entirely. This is likely to deter Taliban and Pakistan to launch an all out offensive against the Afghan government post 2014. International community may not abandon Afghanistan like it did in the 1990s. International assistance may not dry up. This may be enough to get the Afghan government going.

Some factions of the Taliban may join the government

Taliban are not monolithic. There are divisions within Taliban which can be exploited. Popular support for Taliban in Pashtun majority areas shinking.

Analysis: Half Glass Empty

Afghan situation remain precarious.

ANSF is too ill-equipped, ill-trained and ill-paid to counter the Taliban onslaught. It may get divided along ethnic lines.
Taliban shows no sign of pursuing reconciliation with the US. It is unlikely to accept Bonn process.

There is a vast gulf between the ways the international community and Pakistan look at Afghan stability.
Pakistan is determined to regain its strategic depth in Afghanistan and deny space to India.

It does have tremendous potential to shape the future of Afghanistan, given its influence and control over Afghan insurgents. However, it is more interested in getting its proxies in Kabul by all means than in stability in Afghanistan.

Pakistan continues to view Afghan Taliban as an asset and strongly believes that Talibans return is inevitable. Therefore, it thinks that Talibans return is a precondition for stability of Afghanistan. The Taliban resolve is a function of Western fatigue in Afghanistan. International community too polite in it dealing with Pakistan. Lack of consensus among regional countries, lack resources No political consensus among major groups. Leadership crisis Economy not in shape to support transition International resolve lacking. Global economic melt-down. Domestic reactions in western countries unfavourable.

Ethnic disharmony Pervasive culture of militancy Warlordism

Poor governance
Radicalisation continues Difficult to sustain the tempo of reconstruction Growing public apathy.

Way Out

Pakistans nuisance potential needs to be effectively dealt with Afghan leadership will have to find a way of evolving a political consensus to deal with the challenges that confront them.

International community will have to stay engaged. Regional countries must be persuaded to upscale their involvement in developmental activities.
Every possible measure should be taken to stop Taliban from overrunning Kabul through military means. Abandoning Afghanistan is no longer an option