Alaska PPT Slides

Alaska Conservation Solutions
2008
The Greatest Threat
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat 2006 Deborah L. Williams
There is no doubt in my mind that climate change is one of the greatest threats facing humanity today.
Markku Niskala Secretary-General of the Red Cross January 2008
Photo The Age, Melbourne. All rights reserved
The Greatest Threat

Things are getting desperate enough now that we need to throw away our conservatism and just act.
Dr. Terry Chapin, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Amanda Byrd/Canadian Ice Service
Global Warming Basics
What do these pollutants do? Global Fever

Greenhouse gases make the earth too hot, just like:
> sleeping under a heavy blanket in the summertime > wearing a parka that is too thick
Our atmospheric blanket or parka is over 35% thicker than it used to be

Thinner blanket is just right.
Thicker blanket traps too much heat.
Weather vs. Climate

Weather: The short-term state of the atmosphere -- up to a few days Climate: Long-term averages, frequencies and extremes -- generally 3 to 5 decades
1950
2008
Choosing shorts or long underwear on a particular day is about weather; the ratio of shorts to long underwear in the drawer is about climate.
Charles Wohlforth ~ The Whale and the Supercomputer
Weather vs. Climate
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
Anchorage, AK January 18, 2009

Photo courtesy of Parker Rittgers / ADN reader submission
Mark Twain
Alaska is Ground Zero

Changes in physical and biological systems and Surface surface temperature 1970-2004 Air Temperature Trends 1942-2003
In past 50 years, Alaska:

Temperatures have increased
4oF overall
(National Assessment Synthesis Team)
Worldwide:
Temperatures have increased slightly more than 1oF
(IPCC, 2007) IPCC, 2007
Temperature Change oC 1970-2004

Chapman and Walsh, 2004 -1.0 -0.2 0.2 Chapman and Walsh, 2004 1.0 2.0 3.5
Future Temperatures in Alaska
Temperature Measurements
Impact of La Nina in Last 12 Months
Ocean temperature models predict a warm 2008-2009 winter in Alaska
NASA 2008
Why has Alaska warmed the most?

The Albedo Effect
Snow and sea ice reflect 85-90% of suns energy Ocean surface and dark soil reflect only 10-20%
(ACIA, 2004)
Increased melting of snow and sea ice More dark earth and ocean surface is exposed More of suns heat energy is absorbed
Land or water warms faster
Its like wearing a white shirt v. a black shirt
Why has Alaska warmed the most?

Other Factors:
(ACIA 2004)
1) Albedo effect 2) More energy goes directly into warming than into evaporation 3) Atmosphere layer is thinner in the Arctic 4) Increased heat transfer from oceans as sea ice retreats
ACIA Graphic
5) Alterations in atmospheric and ocean circulation
Temperature Measurements
Impact of La Nina in Last 12 Months
Ocean temperature models predict a warm 2008-2009 winter in Alaska
NASA 2008
Impacts in Alaska
Impacts of Warming in Alaska

NOAA photo Tony Weyiouanna, Sr Columbia University photo
1. Melting ice, glaciers

and permafrost
2. Animals 3. Wetlands and forests 4. Weather and storms
5. People and culture
Impacts in Alaska
Melting Sea Ice

23% smaller than
1. Melting
previous minimum; 39% smaller than average

Ice 50% thinner
(D. A. Rothrock et al., 1999)
Ice only 3 feet thick

in most locations
(NOAA FAQ, 2007)
Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 1978 - 2008
In September 2007 an area the

size of Florida (69,000 square miles) melted in six days (NSIDC 2007)
Humpback whales spotted in

Arctic Ocean for first time in 2007
Impacts in Alaska
The Ice Cap in September

New minimum:
1. Melting
1.59 million square miles (4.13 million square km)

September median ice edge 1979-2000
Previous minimum:
2.05 million square miles (2005)
Sea Ice edge Sep. 16, 2007
Average minimum:
2.60 million square miles (1979 2000)
1 million square miles is an area roughly the size of Alaska and Texas combined, or ten United Kingdoms (NSIDC, 2007)
Melting Sea Ice: Sept. 2008

Arctic sea ice extent reached annual low on September 12, 2008: The second-lowest level ever 33% less than average minimum from 1979-2000
Impacts in Alaska 1. Melting
NSIDC (2008)
Melting Sea Ice

Arctic winter ice 2008: Loss of older, thicker (12 15 ft) ice
Impacts in Alaska 1. Melting
Old ice (6+ years) has declined from over 20% to about 6%
Over 70% of ice is first-year
NSIDC (2008)
Impacts in Alaska
Melting Sea Ice

The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by 2040.
(U.S National Center for Atmospheric Research 2006)
1. Melting
Our research indicates that society can still minimize the impacts on Arctic ice.
Dr. Marika Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research
2000
2040
Impacts in Alaska
Glacial Retreat
McCall Glacier
The rapid retreat of Alaskas glaciers represents 50% of the estimated mass loss by glaciers through 2004 worldwide
(ACIA, 2004)
1. Melting
Loss of over 588 billion cubic yards from 1961 to 1998 (Climate Change, 11/05) Alaskas glaciers are responsible for at least 9% of the global sea level rise in the past century (ACIA, 2004) Bering Glacier, representing more than 15% of all the ice in Alaska, is melting twice as fast as previously believed, releasing approximately 8 trillion gallons of water per year into the ocean -- or the equivalent of two Colorado Rivers
(Michigan Tech Research Institute, 5/07)
1941 1958
USGS photo
2004 2003
Bruce Molnia photo
Matt Nolan photo
Austin Post photo
Impacts in Alaska
Glacial Retreat
Accelerated melting of glaciers and ice caps could add an additional 4 to 9.5 inches of sea level rise. (Science 7/07)
1. Melting
Alaskas Columbia Glacier has decreased by approximately 9 miles since 1980 and thinned by as much as 1,300 feet.. (Science 7/07)
Impacts in Alaska
Permafrost Thawing
All the Observatories show a substantial warming during the last 20 years, causing permafrost to melt at an unprecedented rate. (State of the
Arctic 2006)
1. Melting
Soil Temperature at 20m Depth Soil Temperatures at

-6C
0 DEPTH
Osterkamp and Romanovsky Osterkamp and Romanovsky Franklin Bluffs
1987
2003
2003
z
-8C
Average Deadhorse Deadhorse 1987-
West Dock West Dock
-10C
1m |
-8 -7 1980
-6
TEMPERATURE
-5 1988
-4
-3 -2 1996
-1oC
2004
NSIDC
Consequences: Damage to infrastructure, lakes, rivers, and forests Rising sea levels Release of stored carbon (methane and CO2)
Vladimir Romanovsky photo
Impacts in Alaska
Animals at Risk
Polar bears Walruses Ice seals Black guillemots Kittiwakes Salmon Caribou Arctic grayling
2. Animals
Rising temperatures
Shrinking habitat Food harder to get Expanding diseases Competition
Impacts in Alaska
Polar Bears in Peril

Numbers in western Hudson Bay have declined 22% in 17 years (U.S. Geological
Service & Canadian Wildlife Service, 2005)
2. Animals
87% on sea ice (19791991) vs. 33% on sea ice (1992-2004) (Monnett et al., 12/05) Alaska polar bear drownings in 2004: 4 documented, 27 estimated total
(U.S. Minerals Management Service, 2004)
Cannibalism in 2004
(Amstrup et al., 2006)
Photo environmentaldefense.org. All rights reserved
Impacts in Alaska
Polar Bear Cannibalism

Photos courtesy of Steven Amstrup, USGS
2. Animals
Amstrup et al., Polar Biology - accepted March 27, 2006 Springer-Verlag 2006
Impacts in Alaska
Polar Bears in Peril

Cubs perishing (61 cubs per 100 females between 196789; 25 cubs per 100 females between 1990-2006 ), smaller skulls and adult starvation
(Regehr & Amstrup, 2006)
2. Animals
Shifting denning sites: 62% on ice (1985-94); 37% on ice (1998-2004) (Fischbach et al., 2007) USGS predicts the extirpation of Alaskas polar bears by 2050, with an overall elimination of two-thirds of the global population (USGS, 2007) Secretary Kempthorne proposed listing the polar bear as threatened
Impacts in Alaska
Walrus Warning Signs
2. Animals
Female walruses depend on sea ice over the continental shelf for feeding and nursing platforms
Abandoned walrus calves: They were swimming around us crying (Aquatic Mammals 4/06) Haulout on Land: Thousands of walruses on shore in Alaska in 2007; 40,000 in one haulout in Russia (AP 10/07) Stampeding Deaths: 3,000 to 4,000 stampeding deaths in Russia in 2007 Other Concerns: More energy expended in foraging; depleted habitat; increased calf mortality
Photo Viktor Nikiforov, WWF-Russia Photo: Corel Corp., Courtesy of www.exzooberance com
Impacts in Alaska
Brown Bears
Factors of Concern:
Hibernation disturbances for reproducing females (Jan-May) 2 months to implant Cub growth Flooding of dens (Sean Farley, ADF&G, 2007)
Reduction in productivity and survival rates following salmon decline in Kuskokwim; additional research underway
(Steve Kovach, FWS, 2007)
2. Animals
Diet impairment: fish and berries (Kenai Brown Bears fish 90% of diet vs. black bears 10%)
Impacts in Alaska
Caribou
The Western Arctic Caribou Herd shrank by 113,000 (more than 20%) between 2003 and 2007; mid-winter warm spells may have played a role
(AP 5/08)
2. Animals
Since 1989, the Porcupine Caribou Herd has declined at 3.5% per year to a low of 123,000 animals in 2001 (ACIA 2004) Freezing rain coats lichen Changing rivers Less tundra
Impacts in Alaska
Dall Sheep

2. Animals
were going to have declining Dall sheep. Were losing their habitat.
Dr. John Morton - Kenai National Wildlife Refuge
Dall sheep live exclusively in alpine tundra Due to warmer temperatures, the tree line in the Kenai Mountains has risen at a rate of about 1 meter/year over the past 50 years 20% of the tundra above 1,500 ft. has disappeared, is now shrub or open woodland
(Refuge Notebook, 6/07)
Photo: Tim Craig, Wildlife Biologist BLM
Impacts in Alaska
Muskoxen
2. Animals
Population in northern Alaska and Canada declined from approximately 700 to 400 (Pat Reynolds, FWS, 2007)
Risk Factors:
Icing events
Lower calf production Deeper snow Not highly mobile Increase in disease (e.g. nematode lungworm, able to complete life cycle in 1 year v. 2 years)
(Kutz et al., 2004)
Impacts in Alaska
Birds Threatened
Kittlitzs Murrelet
Declines in Kittlitzs Murrelet:
Prince William Sound: 97% from 1989 - 2001
2. Animals
Glacier Bay: 89% from 1991 - 2000

Kenai Peninsula: 83% since 1976
(BirdLife International, Kittlitzs Murrelet Species Fact Sheet, 2006)
Photo 2004 Gary Luhm. All rights reserved.
The fate of the Kittlitzs Murrelet may hinge on the fate of Alaskas glaciers, and therefore Kittlitzs may be among the worlds first avian species to succumb to the effects of rising
Subsistence observations:
Birds flying higher, farther away Lakes and rivers too low Fewer birds seen
global temperatures.
(John F. Piatt, USGS, and Kathy Kuletz, USFWS)
Impacts in Alaska
Alaska Waterfowl
Hatch dates have advanced 5 - 10 days since
1982 in all 5 species studied in Yukon Delta NWR
2. Animals
Cackling Hatchlings
Sea-level rise, increased storm frequency and

intensity, and wetland drying will likely cause dramatic changes in waterfowl communities
Julien Fischer, Scientist, USFWS (2007)
Aleutian Cackling Geese
White Front Goose on Nest
Brandt Geese
Impacts in Alaska
Waterfowl -- Scaup
2. Animals
Population appears to be in peril

(Consensus Report, 2006)
Declined from over 7 million (in 1970s) to 3.39 million (2005) (CR) Record low in 2006: 3.2 million
(Ducks Unlimited)
70% breed in western boreal forest; Fastest rate of decline there (94,000 birds per year from 1978 - 2005) Declines reflect breeding season events. (CR)
19% wetland loss in Yukon Flats

(1985 - 89 v. 2001 - 03)
Where ponds lose 20% or more surface, scaup food sources decline (i.e. amphipods, gastropods and chironomid larvae)
(Corcoran et al., 2007)
Impacts in Alaska
Yukon Chinook Diseased

Yukon River: Water Temperature
2. Animals
E.R.Keeley photo
E.R. Keeley photo
Courtesy of Dr. R. Kocan
Protozoan parasite Icthyophonus never found in Yukon salmon before 1985 Today, up to 45% of the Yukons Chinook salmon are infected
(Kocan et al., 2004)
R. Kocan photo R. Kocan photo
Infection is causing:
AFIP photo
Wastage Reduced returns to spawning grounds Mortality
Photo: Armed Forces Institute of Pathology
Impacts in Alaska
Kenai Salmon Streams Warming

Kenai Streams: Days Above Temperature Standard
2. Animals
Temperatures in Kenai Peninsula streams now consistently exceed Alaskas standard to protect salmon spawning areas (13o C/ 55o F)
Source: Cook Inlet Keeper, August 2007
Impacts in Alaska
Smaller Fry in Silted Skilak Lake

Photo: NWS/APRFC, NOAA
2. Animals
Glacial melt has increased silt in Skilak Lake (major rearing area for Kenai River sockeye)
Less light, plankton production and food for salmon fry
Fry in 2004 were about 50% smaller than average for the prior decade; fry in 2005 were 60% smaller
(AK Department of Fish & Game, 2005)
Photo Adams River Salmon Soc
Impacts in Alaska
Low Pink Salmon Harvests

ADFG 2006 SE purse seine Predicated: 52 million Actual: 11.6 million
2. Animals
Low number was due in large part to the warmer temperatures of 2004, when the parents of this seasons mature fish would have been affected (ADFG, 2006)
Impacts in Alaska
Exotic Species Appearing

Juneau Empire
September 25, 2005
2. Animals
Squid, sharks and barracuda are among species newly arrived in Alaska waters. Seiners and troll fishermen have sighted sardines, anchovies, jumbo squid, sharks, barracuda and large concentrations of brilliantly hued open-ocean fish such as pomfret and opah.
Photo courtesy of the Deep Blue Gallery.
2005 GOA water temperatures were 2-3o higher than average.

Juneau Empire, 9/25/05
Photo Ocean Research, Inc.
Impacts in Alaska
Bering Sea Ecosystem Changing

Change from arctic to subarctic conditions underway in the northern Bering Sea Prey base for benthic-feeding gray whales, walrus, and sea ducks is declining
2. Animals
North Pacific Fisheries Management Council cut 2007 catch quotas for pollock by 6% due to fish migrating northward into cooler waters
Gary Luhm
Image: NASA Earth Observatory
Photo courtesy of J. Overland
Scientists predict 40% loss of Bering Sea Ice by 2050 (USGS, 2007)
NOAA photo
NOAA Photo
Impacts in Alaska
Wetlands and Forests

Over the last 5 decades, in areas of the Kenai NWR:
Open areas decreased by 34% Wet areas decreased by 88% Water and lakes decreased by 14%
(Klein, Berg and Dial, 2004)
3. Wetlands and Forests
USFWS photo
8-14,000 year old sphagnum peat bogs are drying out and becoming shrub lands
(Ed Berg, Kenai Nat. Wildlife Refuge)
USFWS photo courtesy of Ed Berg
Impacts in Alaska
Disappearing & Shrinking Ponds

Disappearance of Ponds since 1950s
Study Area % Decrease in Number of Ponds 54 % 36 % 30 % 10 %
(Riordan et al., 2006)
% Decrease in Area of Ponds 28 % 25 % 31 % 18 %
Copper River Basin Minto Flats SGR Innoko Flats NWR Yukon Flats NWR
Based on Inventory of 10,000 closed-basin ponds
Impacts in Alaska
Forest Decline: White Spruce
photo Barbara Logan 2005. dlogan@alaska.net
In 1950, critical temperature threshold crossed (16o C/60o F); since then, growth has declined Species could be eliminated from central Alaska by the end of this century (ACIA, 2004)
Impacts in Alaska
Forest Decline: Black Spruce
The dominant tree in about 55% of Alaskas boreal forest Warming temperatures result in strongly reduced growth Trees also disrupted by thawing ground
USFS photo
By 2100, predicted temperature scenarios would not allow black spruce to survive in Fairbanks area
(ACIA, 2004)
Impacts in Alaska
Forest Decline: Yellow Cedar

A dramatic decline has affected over 500,000 acres of yellow cedar in SE Alaska.
The suspected cause is spring freezing injury, due to: - Warmer winters
(premature dehardening in springtime)
(less insulation)
(Hennon/USFS 2004; Schaberg & Hennon 2005)
Paul Hennon photo
Paul Hennon photo
- Reduced snow cover
Impacts in Alaska
Spruce Bud Worm
With increased warming, all white spruce in Alaska will be vulnerable to outbreaks.
Before 1990, spruce budworm was not able to reproduce in central Alaska After warm summers in the 1990s, large infestations of budworms have occurred
(ACIA, 2004)
USDA Forest Service, Dave Powell photo
Impacts in Alaska
Spruce Bark Beetle
USFS photo
The worlds largest outbreak of spruce bark beetle has infested approximately 4 million acres on the Kenai Peninsula
(ACIA 2004)
Cause: Warmer summers One year life- cycles Warmer winters No kill-off
Columbia University photo http://www.columbia.edu/~jas194
Impacts in Alaska
Forest Fires
6.6 million acres burned in 2004
4.6 million acres burned in 2005
6.0
millions of acres 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0
Alaska Acres Burned 1956-2005

Bureau of Land Management John McColgan photo
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: NOAA National Climate Data Center
Impacts in Alaska
Tundra Fires
Total Tundra Fire Area (Acres) Burned Reported thousands acres North of 68 deg. north1956-2007* o latitude burned North Lat of 68 from 1950-2007 Alaska Fire Service, 2007 250
*2007 fire still active as of 9/21/07
200
Thousands of Acres
150
Anaktuvuk River Fire, 2007

100
50
0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
North Slope Fire, 2004
Impacts in Alaska
Invasive Plant Species

EXAMPLE:
Purple Loosestrife
Requires warm temperatures for germination (15-20C)

(ADFG)
Now seen for the first time in Alaska, along Chester Creek
WI Dept Natural Resources
Northern limits of distribution may be strongly influenced by low growing season temperature. (USFS)
Canadian Dept of Agriculture
Aggressive invader of wetlands, serious threat to habitat and species diversity
Impacts in Alaska
Insect Pests
Woolly sawfly
Warmer conditions can allow or worsen a variety of pest infestations: European slugs: New to
Alaska, now flourishing from Kenai to Interior
Aphids: Growth increases

exponentially with temperature
Canadian Ministry of Forests
European black slug
Birch leaf roller, birch leaf miner, larch saw fly, aspen leaf miner (Glenn Juday, Professor of
Forest Ecology, UAF)
Woolly sawfly: Longer growing

season can allow two life cycles within one year
Ralph Berry OSU
Plants stressed by heat or drought are more susceptible

(Michael Rasy, IPM, UAF Coop. Ext.)
Impacts in Alaska
Infrastructure and Storms

September 2005: Storm surges 9 ft, waves 15 ft. 34 communities affected. Unalakleet lost 10-20 feet of beach.
4. Weather and Storms
Kotzebue Nome
Golovin Unalakleet
Newtok lost 10 ft of beach and a 1000 gallon fuel tank. Golovin homes were flooded for an unprecedented third year in a row.
(Anchorage Daily News 9/28/05)
Newtok
Bethel
Golovin, September 23, 2005.
photo courtesy of Toby Anungazuk, Jr.
Shishmaref, October 2002
Photo Gary Braasch
Impacts in Alaska
Infrastructure
Some shorelines have retreated more than 1500 feet over past few decades.
(National Assessment Synthesis Team)
Newtok lost 2-3 miles in 40 years. In a single storm in 1997, Shishmaref lost 125 feet of beach. 184 communities are at risk from flooding and erosion
(GAO estimate).
12:37 PM October 8, 2002 2:32 PM
Coastal villages are becoming more susceptible to flooding and erosion caused in part by rising temperature.
(GAO 2004) Shishmaref
photos courtesy of the Nome Nugget, from arctic.noaa.gov
Impacts in Alaska
Infrastructure
Costs of Future Erosion Protection Kivalina Newtok Shishmaref Bethel Dillingham Kaktovik Unalakleet 15,000,000 90,000,000 16,000,000 $5,000,000 10,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 Cost to Relocate $ 95 125 million $ 80 130 million $100 200 million N/A N/A $ 20 40 million N/A
Army Corps of Engineers, April 2006 Report

How Long Does The Community Have 10 15 years 10 15 years 10 15 years > 100 years > 100 years > 100 years > 100 years
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
Impacts in Alaska
Infrastructure
A
warming climate will damage Alaskas infrastructure because it was designed for a cold climate. (Larsen and Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research 6/07)
- Damage to infrastructure may add $3.6 to $6.1 billion (10% to 20%) to future costs for public infrastructure from now to 2030 and $5.6 to $7.6 billion (10% to 12%) from now to 2080. - Damage will be concentrated in areas of thawing permafrost, flooding, and eroding coastlines.
Impacts in Alaska
Alaskas Arctic Coast

USGS documented that in the last 50 years, a section of the Alaska North Slope coastline has eroded by as much as 3,000 ft (0.9 KM).
(Geology 07/07)
Erosion rates for the area increased from .48 km2/year (19551985) 1.08 km2/year (1985-2005).
(Geology 07/07)
Impacts in Alaska
National Security
NORAD AK Region
Three North American Aerospace Defense Command early-warning radar sites in Alaska to be shut down due, in part, to erosion caused by climate change; Point Lonely already closed
(New York Times, 12/07)
The Northwest Passage

Canadian Internal Waters or International Straits?
September 2008: Northwest Passage & Northern Sea Route both open (less than one-tenth surface ice) for first time since satellite observations began
(US National Ice Center)
Sept. 8, 2008
(NASA)
Maritime Jurisdiction & Boundaries

Staking Claims: The First Map (Aug. 2008)
Countries that control Arctic coastline:
United States Canada Russia Norway Denmark (Greenland) Each allowed 200-mile economic zone beyond shoreline or continental shelf, if geologically related
May 2008: 5 Arctic states agree that UN Commission will settle competing territorial claims
International Boundaries Research Unit, Durham University www.durham.ac.uk/ibru
The Lomonosov Ridge

No one owns the North Pole Yet
Potential claimants to North Pole ownership: Russia Canada Denmark (via Greenland) July 2008 USGS estimate: 13% of undiscovered oil & 30% of undiscovered gas lie under Arctic seabed Oil & gas recovery possible But at what environmental & human costs?
International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean
(geology.com)
Health Impacts
South Fairbanks smoke, June 2004
Oyster contamination in summer of 2004 (New England

Journal of Medicine, 2005)
Hazardous travel, hunting and fishing

Adverse dietary impacts Beaver range expanding
Health damage from fires -respiratory illnesses, especially in elderly, children

Water and sewer failures First yellowjacket sting deaths in Fairbanks in 2006; 50% increase in sting-related emergencies
(Dr. Jeffrey Demain, UAA)
Impacts in Alaska
Alaskas Uniqueness
Global warming threatens Alaskas very soul and special quality of life
5. Human Impacts
Race Cancelled 3 of last 8 years
Start Moved 6 of last 10 years
Impacts in Alaska
Subsistence Impacts
the Arctic is becoming an environment at risk Sea ice is less stable, unusual weather patterns are occurring, vegetation cover is changing, and particular animals are no longer found in traditional hunting areas during specific seasons.
Photo Alaska Division of Tourism
5. Human Impacts
Local landscapes, seascapes, and icescapes are becoming unfamiliar, making people feel like strangers in their own land.
(ACIA, 2004)
NOAA photo Photo Alaska Division of Tourism
Impacts in Alaska
People and Culture

Climate change is occurring faster than people can adapt. [It] is strongly affecting people in many communities, in some cases threatening their cultural survival.
(ACIA 2004)
5. Human Impacts
Photo courtesy of Alaska Conservation Foundation
Impacts in Alaska
Indigenous Peoples
For the Inuit, climate change is a matter of livelihood, food, health, and individual and cultural survival.
5. Human Impacts
The erosion and potential destruction of our way of life brought about by climate change resulting from emission of greenhouse gases amounts to a violation of the fundamental human rights of Inuit.
Sheila Watts-Cloutier Former Chair, Inuit Circumpolar Conference
Impacts in Alaska
Indigenous Peoples
5. Human Impacts
In no case may a people be deprived of its own means of subsistence.

United Nations International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
Impacts in Alaska
Human Impacts
All of these villages have lost people on the ice. When you have a small village of 300 or 400 people, losing three or four of their senior hunters, its a big loss. A lot of the elders will no longer go out on the sea ice because their knowledge will not work anymore. What theyve learned and passed on for 5,000 years is no longer functional.
Will Steger Founder, globalwarming101.org
Photo: Environment Canada
5. Human Impacts
Due to unusual ice conditions, one of our young local hunters lost his life, which has not occurred in our community in my lifetime.
Fannie Weyiouanna, Shishmaref
Photo: Christoph Lpkes, Alfred Wegener Institute
Impacts in Alaska
If we do not Act: Worst Case

Average temperatures in many parts of northern North America will rise more than 25oF by 2100. Arctic tundra will decline from 8% to 1.8% of the worlds land area, and Alaska will lose almost all of its evergreen boreal forests. Extinctions and profound disruptions will ensue.
(Govindasamy and Caldeira, 2005)
5. Human Impacts
If we fail to act, and CO2 keeps rising at the current rate, then a new modeling study predicts that:
_ Predicted Temperature Increase _ _ _ _
+25oF +20
+15 +10 +5
Impacts in Alaska
Shishmaref & Elsewhere: We Must Help

Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photos
5. Human Impacts
The Options: Relocate entire village.
Pay villagers to disperse to Nome, Kotzebue, and Anchorage.

Do nothing.
Kelly Eningowuk photo
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr.
Adaptation
The Do Nothing Option

The no action option for Shishmaref is the annihilation of our community
1. Relocating Villages
Edwin Weyiouanna, AFE 2006
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photos
Robert Puschendorf
We are unique, and need to be valued as a national treasure by the people of the United States. We deserve the attention and help of the American people and the federal government.
Adaptation
Shishmarefs Request
We are worth saving.
[We request that] Shishmaref be used as a Federal demonstration project with maximum flexibility to determine what changes need to be made to lower the cost and impact of relocation, identify a Federal champion, and facilitate agency coordination.
1. Relocating Villages
Edwin Weyiouanna, AFE 2006
Global Cataclysmic Concerns
Inundation
Inundation from Four Meter Sea Level Rise (or 1m rise + 3m storm surge)
Weiss and Overpeck, 2006
Global Cataclysmic Concerns
Inundation
Inundation from Four Meter Sea Level Rise (or 1m rise + 3m storm surge)
Weiss and Overpeck, 2006
Adaptation
Adaptation: Other Needs

Alaska Highways and Communities Susceptible to Permafrost Melting
Permafrost: -- continuous -- discontinuous -- sporadic -- <10%
2. Infrastructure
Adaptation is needed in many other areas:

Lands management Fish and wildlife management Water and waste management Archaeology
Map courtesy of Orson Smith
Highway repair
Alan Parkinson photo
Courtesy of Peter Larsen, UAA

ANTHC photo
USFWS photo
Adaptation
Adaptation: Not always possible

Adaptation is critical but not sufficient.
If global warming emissions continue to increase, irreplaceable elements of our natural and cultural heritage will be lost forever.
3. Extinctions
ADCED
NMML
What We Can Do
Individual Actions
1. Conserve
2. Consume efficiently 3. Use renewables
4. Be involved
www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
What We Can Do
Measuring Your Carbon Footprint

Major Carbon Contributors:
Electric consumption Gas/heating oil consumption Car and miles driven Miles flown ORV use
Average Alaskan Carbon Footprint = 24,000 pounds
What We Can Do
Making a Difference as an Individual

Conservation Measures:
Walk, bike, ride public transit,
or carpool Make sure your tires are fully inflated and your car tuned up Lower your water heater and home thermostats Don't preheat your oven Only run your dishwasher with full loads Reduce your shower length and temperature Buy locally produced foodlook for the Alaska Grown Logo Unplug appliances not in use Turn off lights when leaving a room Use recycled paper Reuse or recycle as much as you can Cut down on consumerism
What We Can Do
Conservation: Three Examples

Unplug Appliances
Vampires! 43 billion kWH lost/year in U.S. Estimated savings = 1,000 lbs/year/person
Pump Up Tires
4 million gallon of gas wasted daily in U.S. Extends life of tires by 25% Estimated savings = 1,000 lbs/year/person
Lower Thermostat
2 degrees OR 6 degrees for 8 hours/day Estimated savings = 2000 lbs/year/person
What We Can Do
Making a Difference as an Individual

Energy Efficiency
Reduce your homes heat and energy loses Replace incandescent lights with fluorescents Replace your appliances with energy star rated appliances Buy a hybrid car
Renewables
Install renewable energy systems: wind, solar, geothermal, in-stream hydro Use biofuels
Carbon Neutral
Carbon offsets Denali Green Tags
Be Heard!
What We Can Do
Energy Efficiency: Two Examples

Compact Fluorescents
Four to six times more efficient Estimated savings = 100 lbs/year for each bulb converted
Hybrid Cars
Save money on fuel Tax credit Estimated savings = 5,600 lbs/year
Summary
Why Alaska Matters

in the Global Warming Crisis
We are at ground zero. We are the Paul Revere of global warming. Alaska contributes in unique ways to the earths natural and cultural heritage, and this heritage is imperiled. Our leaders matter. If we do not act..
Photo 2002 Robert Glenn Ketchum Courtesy of Alaska Conservation Foundation
Deborah L. Williams Alaska Conservation Solutions dlwilliams@gci.net
Thank You
JRA
For further information: Deborah L. Williams Alaska Conservation Solutions 308 G Street, Suite 219 Anchorage, AK 99501 dlwilliams@gci.net (907) 929-9370 www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
Presentation produced by Jennifer R. Allen Alaska Digital Graphics, Anchorage For technical assistance please contact: Jennifer Allen jrallen@ak.net (907) 360-2881 PO Box 212806 Anchorage, Alaska 99521
Scientific Contributors
We thank the following scientists and researchers for generous provision of data and figures presented here, and for valuable discussions and other assistance: Ed Berg Cook Inlet Keeper Paul Hennon Richard Kocan Peter Larsen Tom Osterkamp James Overland Jonathan Overpeck Vladimir Romanovsky Chris Rose Mark Willette Woods Hole Research Center
Photographic Contributors
We gratefully acknowledge the photographs made available by:
Adams River Salmon Society http://www.salmonsociety.com/ Toby Anungazuk, Jr., Golovin Alaska Conservation Foundation http://www.akcf.org *Alaska Department of Community & Economic Development www.dced.state.ak.us/apl/home.cfm *Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation http://www.dec.state.ak.us/ Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium http://www.anthc.org/index.cfm Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004 http://www.amap.no/acia/ *Armed Forces Institute of Pathology http://www.afip.org/vetpath/WSC/WSC95/95wsc18.htm Gary Braasch http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/ *Bureau of Land Management http://www.nifc.gov/gallery/ Columbia University http://www.columbia.edu/~jas194 Deep Blue Dive Shop, Utila, Honduras http://www.deepblueutila.com/ Kelly Eningowuk, Shishmaref Environmental Defense http://www.environmentaldefense.org E.R. Keeley, University of British Columbia Robert Glenn Ketchum http://www.robertglennketchum.com/ Barbara Logan dlogan@alaska.net Gary Luhm http://www.garyluhm.com/ *NASA Earth Observatory http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ *National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/
Photographic Contributors (cont.)

*National Snow and Ice Data Center http://nsidc.org/ *National Weather Service Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov/ Ocean Research, Inc., Honolulu http://www.ocean-research.com/ Alan Parkinson, CDC Anchorage Public Health Agency of Canada http://www.westnilevirus.gc.ca Robert Puschendorf The 7 Summits http://7summits.com/ The Age, Melbourne. http://www.theage.com.au The Nome Nugget http://www.nomenugget.com *USDA Forest Service http://www.forestryimages.org/ *US Fish and Wildlife Service http://www.fws.gov/ *US Geological Survey http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/photos.asp Web Portal of Bangladesh http://www.ourbangla.com Tony Weyiouanna, Sr., Shishmaref Richard Wilson, Harvard University
Copyright and intellectual property rights for all photographs, graphics, figures and maps in this presentation are retained by their respective creators or owners as indicated. Please contact them directly for permission to use their property and/or guidelines on permitted usage. *Public domain source exceptions are asterisked.
2006 Alaska Conservation Solutions. This presentation is the intellectual property of the author. Permission is granted for the presentation to be freely shared for non-commercial, educational purposes, provided that this copyright statement appears and notice is given that the copying is by permission of the author. To disseminate otherwise or to republish requires written permission of the author. Please contact the author if you plan to deliver the presentation orally to a public audience.

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Alaska Conservation Solutions

The Greatest Threat

Global Warming: The Greatest Threat 2006 Deborah L. Williams

Markku Niskala Secretary-General of the Red Cross January 2008

Photo The Age, Melbourne. All rights reserved

The Greatest Threat

Amanda Byrd/Canadian Ice Service

Global Warming Basics

What do these pollutants do? Global Fever

Our atmospheric blanket or parka is over 35% thicker than it used to be

Thicker blanket traps too much heat.

Weather vs. Climate

Global Warming: The Greatest Threat 2006 Deborah L. Williams

Global Warming: The Greatest Threat 2006 Deborah L. Williams

Weather vs. Climate

Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.

Anchorage, AK January 18, 2009

Global Warming Basics

Alaska is Ground Zero

In past 50 years, Alaska:

Temperatures have increased

Temperature Change oC 1970-2004

Future Temperatures in Alaska

Global Warming Basics

Why has Alaska warmed the most?

Global Warming: The Greatest Threat 2006 Deborah L. Williams

Land or water warms faster

Its like wearing a white shirt v. a black shirt

Global Warming Basics

Why has Alaska warmed the most?

5) Alterations in atmospheric and ocean circulation

Impacts of Warming in Alaska

1. Melting ice, glaciers

2. Animals 3. Wetlands and forests 4. Weather and storms

5. People and culture

Melting Sea Ice

previous minimum; 39% smaller than average

Ice only 3 feet thick

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 1978 - 2008

In September 2007 an area the

Humpback whales spotted in

The Ice Cap in September

1.59 million square miles (4.13 million square km)

Sea Ice edge Sep. 16, 2007

Melting Sea Ice: Sept. 2008

Impacts in Alaska 1. Melting

Melting Sea Ice

Impacts in Alaska 1. Melting

Melting Sea Ice

Dr. Marika Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Bruce Molnia photo

Matt Nolan photo

Austin Post photo

Soil Temperature at 20m Depth Soil Temperatures at

Osterkamp and Romanovsky Osterkamp and Romanovsky Franklin Bluffs

Average Deadhorse Deadhorse 1987-

West Dock West Dock

Vladimir Romanovsky photo

Polar Bears in Peril

Global Warming: The Greatest Threat 2006 Deborah L. Williams

Photo environmentaldefense.org. All rights reserved

Polar Bear Cannibalism

Polar Bears in Peril

Walrus Warning Signs