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Yankee Fork and Hoe Company1
Yankee Fork and Hoe Company1
By:
David Sigler
Cole Carlson
John Federiuk
Melissa Kirkman
History
Product Range:
Continued
The Problems
Anticipated Promotions
Changes in the economy
Previous years shortages
Shipment
Variation
Year 1
Demand
Year 1
Shipment
Variation
Year 2
Demand
Year 2
Shipment
Variation
Year 3
Demand
Year 3
Shipment
Variation
Year 4
Demand
Year 4
-15,171
53,630
-8,474
51,078
-17,910
53,977
-10,637
50,040
-10,511
56,289
-20,338
59,298
-26,409
60,998
-25,473
63,781
19,030
17,345
15,337
20,223
19,152
22,568
20,432
23,266
12,788
26,199
12,010
25,970
12,996
26,504
12,169
28,140
-5,619
23,099
-1,067
24,705
2,337
26,932
-319
27,566
604
15,700
-5,479
13,400
3,259
16,421
-4,327
15,898
700
16,560
4,587
17,788
-2,291
13,045
4,293
18,209
-7,551
18,200
-3,068
16,465
2,918
18,991
2,022
17,690
7,380
15,510
2,967
17,433
-1,113
21,604
-8,085
22,887
10
-19,371
55,088
-420
57,400
-56,257
59,297
-16,479
54,777
11
21,605
84,188
223
85,455
-1,217
81,521
26,547
83,709
12
4,121
71,088
358
73,886
3,733
74,699
2,223
75,432
Forecasting Error
Bias error due to use of wrong model
RSFE = At Ft = Error
Month
1 Actual (At)
1 Forecast (Ft)
RSFE
2 Actual (At)
2 Forecast (Ft)
RSFE
38,459
53,630
-15,171
42,604
51,078
-8,474
45,778
56,289
-10,511
38,960
59,298
-20,338
36,375
17,345
19,030
35,560
20,223
15,337
38,987
26,199
12,788
37,980
25,970
12,010
17,480
23,099
-5,619
23,638
24,705
-1,067
16,304
15,700
604
7,921
13,400
-5,479
17,260
16,560
700
22,475
17,788
4,587
10,649
18,200
-7,551
13,397
16,465
-3,068
22,890
15,510
7,380
20,400
17,433
2,967
10
35,717
55,088
-19,371
56,980
57,400
-420
11
105,793
84,188
21,605
85,678
85,455
223
12
75,209
71,088
4,121
74,244
73,886
358
8,005
-3,364
Tracking Signals
Only in range 5 times in 2 years
Month
RSFE
Tracking Signal
RSFE
Tracking Signal
-15,171
-22.7
-8,474
-30.2
-10,511
-15.8
-20,338
-72.6
19,030
28.5
15,337
54.7
12,788
19.2
12,010
42.8
-5,619
-8.4
-1,067
-3.8
604
0.9
-5,479
-19.5
700
1.0
4,587
16.4
-7,551
-11.3
-3,068
-10.9
7,380
11.1
2,967
10.6
10
-19,371
-29.0
-420
-1.5
11
21,605
32.4
223
0.8
12
4,121
6.2
358
1.3
Total Error
8,005
-3,364
MAD
667
280
Seasonal
Factor
Year 4
Average
Seasonal
Factor
Year 5
Forecast
Month
Year 1
53,630
1.421
51,078
1.324
53,977
1.359
50,040
1.247
1.338
54,721
56,289
1.491
59,298
1.537
60,998
1.536
63,781
1.590
1.538
62,930
17,345
0.460
20,223
0.524
22,568
0.568
23,266
0.580
0.533
21,800
26,199
0.694
25,970
0.673
26,504
0.667
28,140
0.701
0.684
27,978
23,099
0.612
24,705
0.640
26,932
0.678
27,566
0.687
0.654
26,767
15,700
0.416
13,400
0.347
16,421
0.413
15,898
0.396
0.393
16,086
16,560
0.439
17,788
0.461
13,045
0.328
18,209
0.454
0.421
17,201
18,200
0.482
16,465
0.427
18,991
0.478
17,690
0.441
0.457
18,694
15,510
0.411
17,433
0.452
21,604
0.544
22,887
0.571
0.494
20,219
10
55,088
1.460
57,400
1.487
59,297
1.493
54,777
1.365
1.451
59,369
11
84,188
2.231
85,455
2.214
81,521
2.053
83,709
2.087
2.146
87,785
12
71,088
1.884
73,886
1.915
74,699
1.881
75,432
1.880
1.890
77,304
AVG
37,741
Total
Demand
452,896
38,592
N/A
463,101
Year 3
Seasonal
Factor
Seasonal
Factor
Seasonal
Factor
39,713
2.25%
476,557
40,116
2.91%
481,395
40,905
1.02%
2 yr SMA
1.965%
490,854
Missing Information
Delivery service
Inventory Accuracy
Plant Visit
Production layout
Promotion info
Non-adjusted sales projections
Regional sales breakdown
Our Recommendations
Demand based
Seasonality
Class A SKUs
Two-bin system
Ensure order fulfillment in a timely manner
Continuing Actions
Continuing Actions
Continuing Actions
Benchmarking
Questions?