MS Projects Day 3 Final

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Training program on

Computer based Project Management Using MS Project 2010


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Day 3

Tasks Dependencies
A task dependency is the relationship between two tasks, in which the start or finish date of one task depends on the start or finish date of another. The task whose start or finish date depends on another task is called the successor. The task that the successor is dependent upon is the predecessor. The most common task dependency is a finish-to-start dependency. In this type of dependency, the second task in the relationship starts when the first task is finished.

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Lead and lag time


Overlapping linked tasks means that you want the successor task to begin before the predecessor task ends. Therefore, you give the successor task lead time. Lead time can be entered as a duration. When you are entering lead time for a task, make sure it is a negative (-) value. Working with lag time is like working with lead time, except that lag time is a positive value. It can be entered as a duration.

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WBS Coding
WBS codes provide a way to number tasks in a project; the structure of the WBS code helps the reader identify the phase of the project in which the task occurs.

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Task Constraints
Every task you enter into Project has some type of constraint applied to it. A constraint controls the start or finish date of a task and the degree to which that task can be rescheduled. There are three categories of constraints:

Flexible constraints Inflexible constraints Semi-flexible constraints

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Adjusting Working Time for Individual Tasks


By default, your tasks are scheduled according to your Project Calendar. But if a certain task needs to be done using a different calendar schedule, you can assign a different calendar to the task.

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Options

Help

Views
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Using Split Views

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Sorting Project Details


Tasks and resources appear in ID-number order in Project by default. However, you can change this by sorting them; sorting lets you rearrange the order in which tasks and resources appear.

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Grouping Project Details


Now we will concentrate on grouping. Grouping is a handy organizational tool, allowing you to focus on a variety of project angles. You can group tasks and resources the same way.

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Filtering Project Details


By filtering a list, you display only the records that meet your criteria, and hide the records that do not. There are several ways to filter your lists.

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Viewing Details

Using Zoom

Using View Bar

Building the Network


AOA Network AON Network

A Sample Set of Project Activities and Precedences

Stage 1 of a Sample AON network

Stage 2 of a Sample AON Network

A Completed Sample AON Network

Stage 1 of a Sample AOA Network

Stage 2 of a Sample AOA Network

A Completed Sample AOA Network

A Completed Sample AOA Network Showing the Use of a Dummy Task

A Sample Problem for Finding the Critical Path and Critical Time
Activity a b c d e f g h i j Predecessor --a a a b, c d d, e f g, h Duration 5 days 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 4

Stage 1 of a Sample Network

A Complete Network

Information Contents in an AON Node

Forward Pass
Begin at starting event and work forward
Earliest Start Time Rule:

If an activity has only a single immediate predecessor, its ES equals the EF of the predecessor If an activity has multiple immediate predecessors, its ES is the maximum of all the EF values of its predecessors

ES = Max {EF of all immediate predecessors}

Forward Pass
Begin at starting event and work forward
Earliest Finish Time Rule:

The earliest finish time (EF) of an activity is the sum of its earliest start time (ES) and its activity time

EF = ES + Activity time

Backward Pass
Begin with the last event and work backwards Latest Finish Time Rule:

If an activity is an immediate predecessor for just a single activity, its LF equals the LS of the activity that immediately follows it If an activity is an immediate predecessor to more than one activity, its LF is the minimum of all LS values of all activities that immediately follow it

LF = Min {LS of all immediate following activities}

Backward Pass
Begin with the last event and work backwards Latest Start Time Rule:

The latest start time (LS) of an activity is the difference of its latest finish time (LF) and its activity time

LS = LF Activity time

The Critical Path and Time for Sample Project

Calculating Activity Slack


Slack or Float
LST - EST = LFT - EFT = Slack

An MSP Version of PERT/CPM Network

A Modified Version of MSP Network

Resources
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What is a Resource?
Costs in a Project are associated with resources. If you want to account for costs in your project, you have to create resources and assign them to the tasks. When you do, you can see the resulting costs in the Total Cost column of the Gantt Chart spreadsheet.

You can create resources with no associated costs. You might do that so you can track only that resources time. Some people use Project strictly as a scheduling tool, so watching the time people are spending on tasks is their only interest, not what the time is costing. If you dont assign costs to resources, you get no cost or budget information back from Project.

Fixed costs arent assigned through resources because they dont accumulate costs by time of work or units used. A fixed cost is a set cost applied directly to individual tasks.

Types of Resources
Project works with three types of resources: Work, Material, and Cost resources Work resources are typically (but not always) people. They cant be depleted but can be reassigned. Their costs are associated with the amount of work time they put in, usually at an hourly rate or a cost per use. Work resources are assigned to tasks based on a Working Time calendar, where you specify their working and nonworking hours.

Material resources can have an hourly rate or a unit cost, and they also have an unlimited working time. This type of resource has no calendar, no overtime, and you make no settings for working and nonworking time.

Cost resources have a set cost associated with them. Calendars and units of work or unit costs have nothing to do with the amount such resources deduct from the bottom line of your project.

Setting Up People Resources


Once you have created a task list for your project, the next step is to create a resource list. Work resources are the people and equipment that do the work of the project.

The easiest way to enter resources in a project is to use the Resource Sheet.

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Resource Name: Type the name of the resource. For a person, you can type the persons name or you can type a job description, such as Product Analyst 1 or Product Analyst 2. Type: Use this column to specify whether youre defining a human, material, or cost resource. Project refers to human resources as Work. Material Label: For material resources, specify the unit of measure. You can set up any label that you want. For example, you can use minutes for long distance, feet for lumber, or miles for gasoline. Initials: Type initials for the resource, or accept the default that Project provides, which is the first letter of the resource name. This designation appears on any view to which you add the Initials field. Typically, a resources name appears, but you can customize the view to display initials if you prefer.

Group: Assign resources to groups if they share some common characteristic, such as job function. Then you can use this field as a filtering or sorting mechanism and display information about the group (a particular job function) as opposed to a specific resource. Just type a name to create a group. Max. Units: Project expresses the amount of the work resource that you have available for assignment as a percentage. For example, 100 percent equals one unit, or the equivalent of one full-time resource; 50 percent equals one-half of a unit, or one-half of a fulltime resources time; and 200 percent equals two full-time resources.

Std. Rate: The standard rate is the rate that you charge for regular work for a resource. Project calculates the default rate in hours. However, you can charge a resources work in other time increments. (For work resources, you can use minutes, days, weeks, months, or years. For material resources, think of the charge as per unit based on the Material Label.) To specify a time increment other than hours, type a forward slash and then the first letter of the word representing the time increment. For example, to charge a resources use in days, type /d after the rate that you specify. Ovt. Rate: The overtime rate is the rate that you charge for overtime work for a work resource. Again, Project calculates the default rate in hours, but you can change the default unit the same way that you changed it for the standard rate.

Cost/Use: In the Cost/Use column, supply a rate for costs that are charged for each use of the resource. Resource costs may be based on the Standard rate (which is calculated by multiplying the number of hours times the cost per hour), the Cost/Use rate (a fixed fee for use of the resource), or a combination of the two. Project uses a combination of the Cost/Use field and the Std. Rate field when calculating the cost of a task. If you rented a piece of equipment that costs you Rs.250/hour plus a setup charge of Rs10,000, you would assign a Std. Rate of Rs.250/hour and a Cost/Use of Rs.10,000. Accrue At: This field specifies how and when Microsoft Project charges resource costs to a task at the standard or overtime rates. The default option is Prorated, but you also can select Start or End. The three are described as follows: If you select Start and assign that resource to a task, Project calculates the cost for a task as soon as the task begins. If you select End and assign that resource to a task, Project calculates the cost for the task when the task is completed. If you select Prorated and assign that resource to a task, Project accrues the cost of the task as you complete scheduled work.

Base Calendar: Base calendar identifies the calendar that Project should use when scheduling the resource. The calendar identifies working and nonworking time. Project assumes that each resource uses the Standard calendar, but as you read later in this chapter, you can create calendars for resource groups (perhaps to handle shift work) or you can modify an individual resources calendar to reflect vacation or other unavailable time (such as jury duty). Code: You can use this field as a catchall field to assign any information that you want to a resource, using an abbreviation of some sort. For example, suppose that your company uses cost-center codes. You may want to supply the costcenter code for the resource in the Code field. You can sort and filter information by the abbreviations that you supply in the Code field.

Setting Up Equipment Resources


Equipment resources are also work resources, but they are different from people resources in the way they are used and scheduled. People generally have a set number of working hours that they will contribute to a task each day. But pieces of equipment don't really have a schedule: they can work around the clock if it's needed. You don't have to track every piece of equipment that is used in the project, but you should keep track of equipment that accumulates cost or that is shared.

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Setting Up Material Resources


Material resources are the goods needed by work resources to complete tasks. Tracking the use of material resources helps track the rate at which the resources are used, as well as their costs. This is especially applicable in building and construction projects that use a lot of materials, such as cement, steel etc.

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Setting Up Cost Resources


You can use a cost resource to represent a financial cost associated with a task in a project. Common types of cost resources might include categories of expenses youd want to track on a project for accounting purposes such as travel, entertainment, or training. Like material resources, cost resources do no work and have no effect on the scheduling of a task. However, after you assign a cost resource to a task and specify the cost amount per task, you can then see the cumulative costs for that type of cost resource, such as total travel costs in a project.

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Resource Information dialog box

This section discusses the fields in the dialog box that didnt appear by default on the Entry table of the Resource Sheet.

Adjusting Working Time for Individual Resources


A resource calendar controls the working and nonworking times of a resource. Project uses resource calendars to determine when work for a specific resource can be scheduled. Resource calendars apply only to work resources (people and equipment) and not to material or cost resources.

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Setting Up Resource Availability to Apply at Different Times


One of the values that Project stores for each work resource is the resources Max. Units value. This is the maximum capacity of a resource to accomplish tasks. A resources working time settings (recorded in the individual resource calendars) determine when work assigned to a resource can be scheduled. However, the resources capacity to work (measured in units and limited by the resources Max. Units value) determines the extent to which the resource can work within those hours without becoming over allocated. You can specify that different Max. Units values be applied at different time periods for any resource. Setting a resources availability Click to edit subtitle style over time enables you Master to control exactly what a resources Max. Units value is at any time. You set resource availability over time in the Resource Availability grid on the General tab of the Resource Information dialog box.

Booking type
You can specify a booking type for a resource assignment. Booking types are most useful in the Enterprise environment, where you are utilizing the Enterprise Resource Pool. The Booking Type field offers you two choices: Committed and Proposed. When you commit a resource, you are officially assigning the resource to the project. When you propose to use a resource, you are indicating that the resource is not yet officially assigned to the project, which essentially leaves the resources calendar untouched by the proposed assignment to your project. Another project manager could commit the resource to a different project for the same time frame, and Microsoft Project will not identify the resource as being overallocated. Project does not consider proposed bookings when calculating resource allocation. The Booking type that you choose for a resource applies to all tasks in your project to which you assign the resource.

Generic Resource Generic Resources resources (as defined by you) that arent specific
people, equipment, or materials, but rather descriptions of the skills that you need for a task when you dont know what specific resources are available. To mark a resource as generic, place a check mark in the Generic box on the General tab of the Resource Information dialog box. Your company may have set up custom fields in Project that apply to your generic resource. To assign the appropriate custom fields, click the Custom Fields tab and assign any appropriate values to your generic resource.

Budget Resource Budget resources give you the opportunity to specify how work or costs will be
allocated during the project. Suppose, for example, that you want to budget for the cost of a storage unit required during the life of your project. You would create a resource for the storage unit, setting its type as Cost, and then check the Budget check box on the General tab of the Resource Information dialog box to make it a budget resource. Project doesnt allow you to enter any cost information for a budget resource on the Resource Sheet. To assign a value to the budget resource, you first assign it to the project summary taskand Project wont let you assign a value as you assign the budget resource. Then, you supply a value by adding the Budget Cost field to the table in the Task Usage view or the Resource Usage view.

Budget Resource You also can set up a work budget resource that you can use to budget for the
number of hours of work you intend to perform for the entire project. You then assign the work budget resource to the project summary task. To record the number of hours of work you want to budget for the entire project, add the Budget Work field to the Task Usage view or the Resource Usage view and enter your budget value. As you track the work for your projects tasks, you can compare the work performed with the budgeted work.

Resources that work in groups


Although you can't assign a group of resources to a single task, it is helpful to organize resources into logical groups for organizational purposes. Grouping allows you to view how resources are related, similar to outlining the task list.

Assigning Resources to Tasks


Matching up tasks and resources to do work is called an assignment. Assignments enable your project to move forward and make progress. Technically, you could complete a project without any resources, but resource assignments help you find out valuable information:

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Assigning Equipment Resources to a Task

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Assigning Material Resources to Tasks

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Assigning Cost Resources to Tasks

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Assigning a fixed cost to a task


Some tasks are fixed-cost tasks, that is, you know that the cost of a particular task stays the same regardless of the duration of the task or the work performed by any resources on the task. To assign a fixed cost to a task, use the Gantt Chart view and apply the Cost table. Follow these steps: 1. Use the View bar or the View menu to switch to the Gantt Chart view. 2. Choose View Table: Entry Cost to switch to the Cost table view of the Gantt Chart, 3. Select the task to which you want to assign a fixed cost. 4. Type the cost for that task in the Fixed Cost column and press Enter. You can control the way that Project accrues Click to edit Master subtitle style the fixed cost for a task from the Fixed Cost Accrual column. Your choices are Start, Prorated, and End. You can assign more than one fixed cost as well as variable costs to a task.

Assigning a fixed resource cost to a task


Set up the resource in the Resource Sheet view. If the resource has some sort of per unit cost (an hourly or daily rate), assign that rate in the Std. Rate field. Otherwise, assign a standard rate of Rs.0. Supply the fixed-cost amount in the Cost/Use field.

Assigning a budget resource


To assign a budget resource to your project, you must first display the project summary task. Choose Tools Options and click the View tab. Place a check in the Show Project Summary Task check box. When you click OK, the first task in your project bears the filename of the project. Click the project summary task and then choose Tools Assign Resources to open the Assign Resources dialog box. Click the budget resource and click Assign. Project places a check in the leftmost column beside the resource to indicate that the resource is assigned to the selected task. You cannot assign any value to the budget resource at this point, so click Close. To assign a value to a budget resource, switch to the Task Usage or the Resource Usage view; in, Im using the Task Usage view. To add the budget resource value on a specific day, add the Budget Cost or Budget Work fields to the Details section of the view and enter the budget value. To add the budget resource value to the project, regardless of the timeframe, add the Budget Cost and Budget Work fields to the table portion of the view and enter the budget value.

Getting help while selecting resources to assign


You may have noticed a plus sign (+) next to Resource List options at the top. If you click the plus sign, the box expands, to provide you with ways to make selecting resources easier.

Removing or replacing a resource assignment


To remove a resource assignment, select the task from which you want to remove the resource assignment using the Gantt Chart view. Then click the Assign Resources button or choose Tools Assign Resources to display the Assign Resources dialog box. Highlight the resource that you want to remove from the task. You should see a check mark next to the resource in the leftmost column of the dialog box. Click Remove.

Effort Driven Scheduling


The Scheduling Formula

Work = Duration x Units

40 hours task duration x 100% resource Click to edit Master subtitle style units = 40 hours of work 20 hours task duration x 200% resource units = 40 hours of work

You can turn off effort-driven scheduling for every new task that you create. Select Tools >> Options from the menu, click the Schedule tab, and uncheck the New tasks are effort driven checkbox.

What Drives Task Timing


The timing of tasks is at the heart of all projects. When you perform a task, the time it takes to complete it might be a set time, or the task might not finish until all the work is done. Task types Task types define the relationship that balances a tasks duration, the work required to complete the task, and resource availability. Fixed Units Fixed Duration Fixed Work

Fixed Units: This is the default task type. With this task type, when you assign resources to a task with a certain number of units (hours of work expressed as a percentage of the working day), the resources assignments dont change even if you change the duration of the task and the work amount.

Fixed Duration: This task type takes a set amount of time to complete, no matter how many resources you add to the mix.

Fixed Work: The number of resource hours assigned to the task determines its length. If you set the duration of a Fixed Work task at 40 hours, for example, and you assign two resources to work 20 hours each (simultaneously) at units of 100 percent, the task will be completed in 20 hours. If you take away one of those resources, the single resource must put in 40 hours at units of 100 percent to complete the task.

Task Types

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Assigning Additional Resources to a Task


There are two ways to assign multiple resources to a task: Assign multiple resources when the assignment is created. Assign additional resources after the assignment is created.

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Changing Task Types


Defining task types changes how tasks are scheduled. For any task, setting the task type determines which part of the scheduling equation Microsoft Project uses to schedule a task. Once a resource assignment is created, tasks are scheduled using this formula:

Duration = Work / Units Work = Duration x Units


"Effort driven" checkbox This option tells Microsoft Project to keep the total task work at its current value. The duration of a task shortens or lengthens as resources are added or removed from a task, while the amount of effort necessary to complete a task remains unchanged.

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Advance Resource Schedule

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Entering Multiple Pay Rates for a Resource Some work resources might perform different tasks with different pay rates.

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Setting Up Pay Rates to Apply at Different Times


Resources can have both standard and overtime pay rates. By default, Project uses these rates for the duration of the project. However, you can change a resources pay rates to be effective as of the date you choose.

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Delaying the Start of Assignments


If more than one resource is assigned to a task, you might not want all of the resources to start working on the task at the same time. You can delay the start of work for one or more resources assigned to a task.

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Applying Contours to Assignments


In the Resource Usage and Task Usage views, you can see exactly how long each resource is scheduled to work on each task. In addition to viewing assignment details, you can change the amount of time a resource works on a task in any given time period. There are two ways to do this:

Apply a predefined work contour to an assignment. Edit the assignment details directly.

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Applying Different Cost Rates to Assignments


You can set as many as five pay rates per resource, which allows you to apply different pay rates to different assignments for a resource. Project initially uses rate table A by default, but you can specify that another rate table should be used.

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Entering Material Resource Consumption Rates


Material Resource Consumption

fixed consumption rate variable consumption rate

A fixed consumption rate means that, regardless of the duration of the task to which the material resource is assigned, an absolute quantity of the resource will be used. For example, pouring concrete for a house foundation requires a fixed amount of concrete no matter how long it takes to pour it. A variable consumption rate means that the quantity of the material resource to edit subtitle consumed Click depends on Master the duration of style the task. When shooting film, for example, you can shoot more film in four hours than in two, and you can determine an hourly rate at which you shoot (or consume) film. After you enter a variable consumption rate for a material resources assignment, Project calculates the total quantity of the material resource consumed based on the tasks duration. The advantage of using a variable rate of consumption is that the rate is tied to the tasks duration. If the duration changes, the calculated quantity and cost of the material resource will change as well.

PROJECT UNCERTAINTY AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Calculating Probabilistic Activity Times


Three Time Estimates
pessimistic (a) most likely (m) optimistic (b)

The Statistical Distribution of all Possible Times for an Activity

Activity Expected Time and Variance


( a + 4m + b) TE = 6 (b a ) = 6 (b a ) Var = = 6
2 2

95 Percent Level
Task will be a or lower 5 percent of the time Task will be b or greater 5 percent of the time

(b a ) = 3.3

90 Percent Level
Task will be a or lower 10 percent of the time Task will be b or greater 10 percent of the time

(b a ) = 2.6

95 Percent Level (Alternative Interpretation)


Task will be between a and b 95 percent of the time

90 Percent Level (Alternative Interpretation)


Task will be between a and b 90 percent of the time

(b a ) = 3.29

An AON Network

An MSP Version of a Sample Problem Network

A Pert/CPM Network for the Day Care Project

An MSP Calendar for the Day Care Project, 4/16/00 to 5/27/00

The Probability of Completing the Project on Time


Z= (D )

=NORMDIST(D,,,TRUE)

The Statistical Distribution of Completion Times of the Path a-b-d-g-h

Selecting Risk and Finding D

D=+Z

NORMINV(probability,,,TRU E)

AON Example

Activity Description A Build internal components B C D E F G H Modify roof and floor Construct collection stack Pour concrete and install frame Build high-temperature burner Install pollution control system Install air pollution device Inspect and test

Immediate Predecessors A A, B C C D, E F, G

Project Schedule
Activity A B C D E F G H Description Build internal components Modify roof and floor Construct collection stack Pour concrete and install frame Build high-temperature burner Install pollution control system Install air pollution device Inspect and test Total Time (weeks) Time (weeks) 2 3 2 4 4 3 5 2 25

AON Network
F A C E

Start

H G

AOA Network
2
(B Co uil A m dI po nt ne ern nt al s)

C (Construct Stack)

4
F Co (Ins nt tall ) rols

E (Build Burner)

H 7 (Inspect/ Test)

Ro (M B of odi /F fy lo or )

D 5 (Pour Concrete/ Install Frame)

G ll ta ion s (In llut ice) Po ev D

Determining the Project Schedule


Perform a Critical Path Analysis
Activity Name or Symbol Earliest Start Latest Start A ES EF Earliest Finish

LS 2

LF

Latest Finish

Activity Duration

LS/LF and ES/EF Times


0 0 0 0
Start

A 2

2 2

2 2

C 2

4 4 E 4

4 10

F 3

7 13 H 2

0 0 B 3 D 4

4 4

8 8 G 5

13 13

15 15

0 1

3 4

3 4

7 8

8 8

13 13

Computing Slack Time


Activity Earliest Start ES Earliest Finish EF Latest Start LS Latest Finish LF Slack LS ES On Critical Path

A B C D E F G H

0 0 2 3 4 4 8 13

2 3 4 7 8 7 13 15

0 1 2 4 4 10 8 13

2 4 4 8 8 13 13 15

0 1 0 1 0 6 0 0

Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes

Critical Path
0 0 0 0
Start

A 2

2 2

2 2

C 2

4 4 E 4

4 10

F 3

7 13 H 2

0 0 B 3 D 4

4 4

8 8 G 5

13 13

15 15

0 1

3 4

3 4

7 8

8 8

13 13

ES EF Gantt Chart
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

A B C D E F G H

Build internal components Modify roof and floor Construct collection stack Pour concrete and install frame Build hightemperature burner Install pollution control system Install air pollution device Inspect and test

LS LF Gantt Chart
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

A B C D E F G H

Build internal components Modify roof and floor Construct collection stack Pour concrete and install frame Build hightemperature burner Install pollution control system Install air pollution device Inspect and test

Variability in Activity Times


CPM assumes we know a fixed time estimate for each activity and there is no variability in activity times PERT uses a probability distribution for activity times to allow for variability

Variability in Activity Times


Three time estimates are required
Optimistic time (a) if everything goes according to plan Pessimistic time (b) assuming very unfavorable conditions Most likely time (m) most realistic estimate

Variability in Activity Times


Estimate follows beta distribution Expected time: t = (a + 4m + b)/6 Variance of times: v = [(b a)/6]2

Variability in Activity Times


Estimate follows beta distribution Expected time: Figure 3.12 t = (a + 4m + b)/6 Variance of times: Probability of 1 v = [(b a)/6]2 in 100 of Probability of 1
Probability

< a occurring

in 100 of > b occurring

Activity Time Optimistic Time (a) Most Likely Time (m) Pessimistic Time (b)

Computing Variance
Activity Optimistic
a

Most Likely
m

Pessimistic
b

Expected Time
t = (a + 4m + b)/6

Variance
[(b a)/6]2

A B C D E F G H

1 2 1 2 1 1 3 1

2 3 2 4 4 2 4 2

3 4 3 6 7 9 11 3

2 3 2 4 4 3 5 2

.11 .11 .11 .44 1.00 1.78 1.78 .11

Probability of Project Completion


Project variance is computed by summing the variances of critical activities
2 p = = ( )

Probability of Project Completion


Project variance is computed by summing the variances of critical Project variance activities
2 p = = 3.11 = 1.76

= .11 + .11 + 1.00 + 1.78 + .11 = 3.11

Probability of Project Completion


PERT makes two more assumptions:

Total project completion times follow a normal probability distribution Activity times are statistically independent

Probability of Project Completion


Standard deviation = 1.76 weeks

15 Weeks (Expected Completion Time)

Probability of Project Completion


What is the probability this project can be completed on or before the 16 week deadline? Z = due /
date expected date of completion

Where Z is the number of standard = (16 deviations 15 )/1.76 the due date or target date lies from the mean or expected date

= 0.57

What is the probability this project can be .00before .01the 16 week .07 .08 completed on or .52790 .53188 deadline? .1 .50000 .50399
.2 .5 .6 .53983 .54380 .56749 .57142 .71904 .75175

Probability of Project Completion From Appendix I

Z .69146 = due .69497 expected.71566 date /


date .72907 of completion .72575 .74857

Where Z is the number of standard = (16 deviations 15 )/1.76 the due date or target date lies from the mean or expected date

= 0.57

Probability of Project Completion


Probability (T 16 weeks) is 71.57% 0.57 Standard deviations

15 Weeks

16 Weeks

Time

Determining Project Completion Time


Probability of 0.99 Probability of 0.01

From Appendix I
Figure 3.15

2.33 Standard deviations

Z 2.33

Variability of Completion Time for Noncritical Paths


Variability of times for activities on noncritical paths must be considered when finding the probability of finishing in a specified time Variation in noncritical activity may cause change in critical path

What Project Management Has Provided So Far


The projects expected completion time is 15 weeks There is a 71.57% chance the equipment will be in place by the 16 week deadline Five activities (A, C, E, G, and H) are on the critical path Three activities (B, D, F) are not on the critical path and have slack time A detailed schedule is available

Thank You

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