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Why Is Our Population Aging? How Will This Aging Affect Us?
Why Is Our Population Aging? How Will This Aging Affect Us?
Why Is Our Population Aging? How Will This Aging Affect Us?
National Press Foundation Presented by Karen Glenn and Steve Goss Office of the Chief Actuary Social Security Administration April 8, 2013
But why?
Is it the:
Baby boomers? Individuals living longer? Lower birth rates?
65+
Millions
20 to 64
Under 20
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
65+
40%
30% 20%
20 to 64
10%
0% 1950
Under 20
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Permanent
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
Male at Birth
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
the puzzle
Aging
of the Population
10
This
Immigration
11
TFR
AdjTFR
2
Ave TFR Ave AdjTFR 3.67 2.85 2.84 2.69 1.99 1.95 2.01 1.99
1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
0 1875
12
1
0.5 0 1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
13
working-age people
Or
Dependancy Ratio
AGED dependency ratio 0.20 0.10 0.00 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 (Population 65+ / Population 20-64)
15
Dependancy Ratio
0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 AGED dependency ratio
2020
2025
2030
Year
16
Intermediate Projection
Dependancy Ratio
0.60 0.50
Intermediate Projection
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
2055
2065
2075
2085
Year
17
Goods and services of todays workers are shared with all in the population Economics is just how we distribute the scarce resources
18
Demographic Change
One Example: US Social Security Cost Rising as Percent of GDP Above Currently Scheduled Revenue
10 9 Historical 8 7 Cost 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Non-interest Income Projected
Percent of GDP
20
This Aging Transition Is Not Just About Retirement (OASI); It Has Already Happened for Disability (DI)
Figure 2: OASDI Cost as Percent of GDP 1975-2090
7
OASDI
6
OASI
DI
1
21
What to Do ?
Aging
With
Need lower consumption per person Workers share more, or others just get less
Will
we find ways to encourage working longer? balance will determine the outcome
22
Political