Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Julian Chang - China's New Economy
Julian Chang - China's New Economy
Domestic Trends
Geographical and industrial transformation:
east and mfg to west/lower tier and services/retail
Chinas demographics
an aging population will cause the proportion of non-earners to soar in the coming years combined with gender imbalance:
Demographic implications
unmarried men appear to suffer greater health risks than their married counterparts; old-age support for that rising cohort?
BUT,
Future Confidence
Life will be better for my children, 83% vs. 65% in India, 21% in US, 13 in Germany (from a BCG survey 2012) Household Consumption spending will be 35% of GDP
33%/43% for
discretionary spending
37%/37%
Opportunities in Challenges
Green technologies Elder Care Services: hospitality and travel Food safety Education Financing
Outward Investment
Why CODI ?
Annual surpluses Diversify foreign-exchange reserves; increasingly uncertain market at home, where profit growth has slowed; Beijing's ongoing banking overhauls shrinking lending margins.
Investment by Ownership
Government: 149 deals / $12,609 Private: 444 deals / $10,016
Industry
Aero, Auto & Transport Consumer Products Electronics and IT Finance & Bus. Services Fossil Fuels & Chemicals Health, Bio & Pharma Hospitality & Real Estate Industrial Machinery Logistics Metals and Minerals Renewable Energy
Number of Deals
60 deals 80 142 55 45 38 21 67 18 22 45
USD millions
$1,541 $441 $3,357 $348 $8,277 $591 $3,849 $3,051 $23 $419 $729
Canaries
How to keep on top of it all, besides usuals, like data on electricity demand, monthly inventories, trade figures, etc. Provincial leadership (6th Gen)