DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

Presented By: Ayesha Zafar Saima Zafar Raja Ahmed

DEMAND FORECASTING
Demand forecasting means estimation of the demand for the good in the forecast period. We can also says: It is a process of estimating a future demand using past data, experience of the top management and other forecasting techniques

Factors involved in Demand Forecasting

Undertaken at three levels:
Macro-level Industry level e.g.., trade associations Firm level

Criteria of a good forecasting method

Accuracy measured by (a) degree of deviations between forecasts and actual, Simplicity. Economy. Availability. Maintenance of timeliness.

Length of forecasts
Short-term forecasts up to 12 months, e.g., sales quotas, inventory control, production schedules, planning cash flows, budgeting. Medium-term 1-2 years, e.g.., rate of maintenance, schedule of operations, budgetary control over expenses. Long-term 3-10 years, e.g.., capital expenditures, personnel requirements, financial requirements, raw material requirements.

Forecasting techniques
Qualitative Techniques Survey Methods Trend Projection Method Quantitative Techniques

Expert opinion Method Complete Enumeration Survey Method

Barometric Technique Econometric Techniques Simultaneous Equation Method

Sample Survey Method

End Use Survey Method

Sales force Opinion survey Method Regression Method

Methods of demand forecasting

No forecast can be expected to be cent percent correct There are several methods of forecasting basically for three reasons: 1. No method is perfect and no method is useless 2. No method is best under all circumstances, and 3. The best method may not be available in particular situation due to constraint from data , time and money.

Demand Forecasting

Qualitative Techniques

Quantitative Techniques

JUDGEMENTAL METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING

Qualitative/ Judgmental Demand Forecasting Techniques

Jury/Panel of Executive Opinion

Sales force Composite Analysis

Delphi Method

Methods of demand forecasting

1. Survey of buyers intentions: also known as Opinion surveys. Useful when customers are industrial producers. (However, a number of biases may creep up). Not very useful for household consumers.

2. Delphi method: it consists of an effort to arrive at a consensus in an uncertain area by questioning a group of experts repeatedly until the results appear to converge along a single line of the issues causing disagreement are clearly defined.

Case Study of CPE

Mission
PE`s mission is to train people to become business professionals of tomorrow. As such, we view a first rate and dedicated careers service as an integral part of the service we provide.

Vision
To be the best at all we do

Programs

ACCA
FIA CFA CA HHD

DELPHI METHOD

Each member of the panel writes answers to the questions

Answers of the panel are summarized and returned to the members of panel

Each member of the panel either maintains or reevaluates his/her forecast

ADVANTAGES: Reduces effects of group think on decision making process Bias is minimized

DISADVANTAGES: Time consuming Expensive Used mostly for long term strategic level forecasts

FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
To see how many students will enroll in their next session, CPE use expert opinion poll: Experts from their faculty sits together and estimates that how many papers students will give in next session.

SWOT ANALYSIS

Strengths.
Competent Staff

Middle of City which is easily reachable for students Attractive fee packages (also give discount to needy students & for students who achieve good %.

Weakness
Small building difficult to handles No proper Place of Parking

Opportunities
Located in that area where they can easily capture many students. Attractive fee packages (also give discount to needy students & for students who achieve good %.

Threats
New comes with better facility. Main product ACCA is finishing slowly. HID is almost over.

Recommendations
My Group recommend CPE to have their own campus which meet their own demands.

Thank You