The Global Energy Challenge

Roel Snieder

Photo: USFWS/Susanne Miller
 The Global Climate and Energy Project
Mission
• Research on low-GHG emission energy
conversions
• Focus on fundamental and pre-commercial
research
• Applications in the 10-50 years timeframe

Strategy
• Research projects with potential for significant
impact on GHG emissions
• Look for potential breakthroughs for new
conversion options
• High risk / high reward
• Work at Stanford and at other institutions
around the world

Schedule and Budget

• 10 years (2003 – 2013+)
Stanford • $225 M
Participating outside institutions
Pending outside institutions
Total global energy demand

70%
increase

(International Energy Outlook 2006)

Developing countries
… and our energy use
Our energy-dependence (1)
Our energy-dependence (2)
Energy use by type

(International Energy Outlook 2006)

 Peak oil

N.B. based on USGS estimates, these are among the most optimistic

(Energy Information administration)

 Peak oil (again)

http://info.energyscenariosireland.com/Overview
 Declining production (1)
Production

resource
depleted

p l y
u p
s
Time
 Declining production (2)

a n d
d em
Production

production gap!

p l y
u p
s
Time
 Oil Tops Inflation-Adjusted
Record Set in 1980
(NYT, March 4, 2008)

$103.76, April 1980 $102.45, March 2008

Price of a barrel of oil,

adjusted for inflation

1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008

(Source: Federal Reserve Energy Information Administration)

 John Hess, CEO of Hess Corp.
“We've moved from a supply-led market to a demand-led one.
In the past, the world has relied on OPEC's spare capacity,
which in 1985 was 10 million barrels per day. Today that
number is about 2.5 million barrels a day. We no longer have
a safety margin to ensure price stability in the face of supply
interruptions and demand spikes. Right now it's hard to see
any relief in sight. Then there's demand. About 50 percent of
oil demand is for transportation, and auto ownership in the
developing countries is growing swiftly, especially in India and
China. ….. Put those two things together - limited supply and
increasing demand - and you get high oil prices.”

(Newsweek, March 15, 2008, http://www.newsweek.com/id/123482)

 International Energy Agency
Fall 2008
The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global 
trends in energy supply and consumption are patently 
unsustainable ­ environmentally, economically, socially. But that 
can ­ and must ­ be altered; there’s still time to change the road 
we’re on. It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of 
human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle the 
two central energy challenges facing us today: securing the 
supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid 
transformation to a low­carbon, efficient and environmentally 
benign system of energy supply. What is needed is nothing 
short of an energy revolution.

http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/WEO2008SUM.pdf 
 New find in GOM
(Jack No. 2 test well)

• up to 3-15 billion barrels of oil

• US consumption 20 million barrels/day
• 5 months - 2 years
• reservoir is 8 km under sea level
 A Quest for Energy in the Globe’s
Remote Places
(New York Times, October 9, 2007)

A natural gas cargo ship passing Melkoya Island, across the bay from Hammerfest, Norway.
 Oil-Rich Nations Use
More Energy, Cutting Exports
(New York Times, December 9, 2007)
 Who has the oil?
USA China

India

(http://www.energybulletin.net/37329.html)
What is the plan?
 A New, Global Oil Quandary: Costly
Fuel Means Costly Calories
(NYT, January 19, 2008)

Rising prices for cooking oil are forcing residents of Asia’s

largest slum, in Mumbai, India, to ration every drop. Bakeries
in the United States are fretting over higher shortening costs.
 Carbohydrates and biofuel
glucose cellulose

Do we feed humans or cars?

Is it a good idea to compete with our machines for calories?
 Research: biofuel from cellulose
25

Processing costs ($/GJ)

20 cellulose

15
vegetable
starch oil
(glucose)
10
gas
oil
5 (100$/barrel)

0 5 10 15 20 25
Feed cost ($/GJ)
http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/biomass.html
(Figure adapted from Lange, J.P., Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, 1: 39-48, 2007)
First solar 2 MW array
Ft. Carson, CO
Research: efficient solar cells

1 mm

http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/solar.html
 Fossil fuel reserves
Production Ratio at End 2004
Proven World Reserves-to-

200 • The R/P ratio is the number

of years that proved
reserves would last at
164 yrs. Your children
current production rates.
(Years)

Your grand-children
 World R/P ratios are:
Oil = 40.5 years;
Natural Gas = 66.7 years;
Coal = 164 years
100
 U.S. R/P ratios are:
66.7 yrs. Oil = 11.1 years;
Natural Gas = 9.8 years;
40.5 yrs. Coal = 245 years

0
Oil Gas Coal

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005

 Non-conventional reserves
(excluding gas and coal)
Produced (gone)
Proved Reserves
Undiscovered(?)

Conventional Extra Heavy Oil

(“easy”) EOR & Tar Sands Shale Oil

0 25 50 Unconventional petroleum resources:

(more difficult & dirty, and therefore expen$ive)
Years Supply at
2005 Production

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Trillions of Barrels Recoverable

(Courtesy of Joe Stefani)
 World’s unconventional production

N.B. World’s annual oil consumption 2006 is 85 million barrels/day

Source: Energy Information Administration, 2007
 Non-conventional oil
2 tons of tar sands produce 1 barrel of bitumen (~asphalt)

Tar Sand

Heavy
Oil

from National Geographic, June 2004

Oil
shale
CO2 emissions vs fuel type

Coal
Natural gas
564
lbs per MWh

331

NREL technical report NREL/TP-840-400665

The Greenhouse Effect
 Temperature and CO2 records

Carbon Dioxode (ppmv)

400
350
Temperature change (oC)

300
250
2
0 200
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10

1 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 now

Thousands of year before present
IPCC 4th Report
850 ppm CO2 in 2100 (A2)
680 ppm CO2 in 2100 (A1B)
550 ppm CO2 in 2100 (B1)
Year 2000 constant concentration
20th century

4oC

http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
 What is 4oC difference?

4oC
Temperature change (oC)

2
0
-2
-4
-6 4oC
-8
-10
Riss Würm

1 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 now

Thousands of year before present
Arctic sea ice 1995-2007

(National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder)

Arctic sea ice 2005-2007

4.3
4.3million
millionsq
sqkm
km

(National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder)

Sea-level rise in Florida
…. and in other parts of the world

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Sea_Level_Rise_Maps_Gallery
Curbing CO2 emissions

(Pacala and Socolow, Science, 305, 968-971, 2004)

 The 7 wedges

(Pacala and Socolow, Science, 305, 968-971, 2004)

 Choose 7 out of 15 wedges
distributed over:
• energy efficiency and conservation
• nuclear energy
• renewable energy and fuels
• more efficient forest and land use
• injecting CO2 in the subsurface
 One wedge is …..

• generate electricity at 60% efficiency

• wind turbines: 3% of the USA surface
• photovoltaics: 700 X today’s use
• nuclear power: double (build 500)
• inject 3 Giga-ton of CO2 per year
Energy efficiency
Lost energy = 60%!
 Research: high-temperature
combustion

fuel/H20
turbine

http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/combustion.html
 Efficiency can pay off
Cost per ton CO2
90

60

30

0
1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0
-30 Gigatons/year

-60

-90

-120

-230

Current USA emissions: 7 Gigatons CO2/year

Source: McKinsey analysis, http://mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/greenhousegas.asp
 Cost ($ per ton CO2)

-80
-40
0
40
ele
ct
ro
ef ni
fic cs
i an
ef ent d
fic c l
ie ars ight
ag ing

1
co nt n a
ric ot m n
ult he po bin ew d tr
ur ri
e n we ed bu uc
im ,f
or
cl. ot r g he ildi ks
he e a n g
pr
ov e st
nu
c r ne t/p s
e ry le ra o w
, a r tio e
ex l a n/ r
is t nd in
in u
g s e
du
st
re bu ry

2
ne ild
ca wa in
rb bl gs
on e
en
se er
qu gy
es
40% of current US emissions!

tra
t io
n
US CO2 emission avoided (gigatons/year)
3
 How much CO2 to sequester?

1 km

2 km
• one wedge is 3 GtCO2/year
• world oil production is 4 Gt/year
The Sleipner project as a
X 3500 !
show-case
Kuwait from space
30 km

N
 Research: gas separation

Develop membranes to
separate H2 or CO2 for
carbon-free hydrogen
production.

http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/co2capture.html
 What can I do as educator?
“I think we have the responsibility to insist that
education is more than learning job skills, that it is
also the bedrock of a democracy. I think we must be
very careful that in the race to become wealthier,
more prestigious, and to be ranked Number One,
we don't lose sight of the real purpose of education,
which is to make people free - to give them the
grounding they need to think for themselves and
participate as intelligent members of a free society.”

Myers, T.M., A student is not an input, NYT, March 26, 2001

 How much CO2 is produced by
burning the coal in one railroad car?
Conservation requires education
 From the thirteen myths ….
• Today’s energy crisis is a hype
• The public is well informed about energy
• The hydrogen economy is a solution
• Efficiency improvements have reached their potential
• Climate policy will bankrupt the US economy
• World-wide power systems are optimal

(Energy and American society - thirteen myths, eds. B.K. Sovacool and M.A. Brown)
 Lobby for a climate
commitment

• Initiate the development of a comprehensive

plan to achieve climate neutrality as soon as
possible.
• Initiate two or more of the following tangible
actions to reduce greenhouse gases while
the more comprehensive plan is being
developed….
• Make the action plan, inventory, and periodic
progress reports publicly available ……

http://www.presidentsclimatecommitment.org/
 What can I do as consumer?

Lighting Transportation Appliances

 Oil needed to produce bottled water

(http://www.armchairenvironmentalist.com/blog/index.php?paged=2)
 Kirsch Center
DeAnza Community College

Energy saving: $65,000/year

Plug-in vehicles
Consider the life-cycle
Consider the life-cycle
 Recycle!
Local passenger
transport 12% Goods and materials 38%

Building
energy use
31%

Inter-city Food 12%

passenger
transport 7%

US CO2 emissions per sector (2005), source US EPA

What can I do as student?

• become a professional
• seek out new opportunities
• push for energy conservation
 Seek projects

http://community.uui.asu.edu/features/solar.asp
 What can I do in business?
• Seek opportunities in sustainable business (for ideas:
http://www.sustainablebusiness.com)
• Create an energy plan and save.
• Imagine what is possible when
energy prices rise.

http://www.danchiras.com
 What can I do as citizen?

• Ask: what is our energy plan?

• Start a discussion in your community.
• Demand that the United States becomes a
world-leader in responsible use of energy.

“That which we are, we shall teach, not voluntarily but involuntarily.” [Emerson] 
 What if we had the courage to
dream …..
and raise fuel standards for cars by 25% to European levels,
generate 20% of electricity by wind (as Denmark does),
generate another 20% of electricity from sunlight,
and conserve 20% by increased efficiency.
This can be done if we want it to happen!

“To have sustainable economic growth 10 years from now, both

consumers and producers need to start acting now.”
John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation in Newsweek, 3/15/2008
http://www.newsweek.com/id/123482
 Questions/comments?

“The difference between stumbling blocks

and stepping stones is how you use them.”

Send feedback to Roel Snieder: email rsnieder@mines.edu

Presentation: http://www.mines.edu/~rsnieder/Global_Energy.html