Professional Documents
Culture Documents
11 - Project Risk Management
11 - Project Risk Management
11 - Project Risk Management
Management
Unit
11
- 11
11-
Agenda
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1. Plan Risk
Management .
2. Identify Risks .
3. Perform
Qualitative Risk
Analysis.
4. Perform
Quantitative Risk
Analysis .
5. Plan Risk
Responses.
2 -11
3 -11
11-4
5 -11
6 11
Risk Event
A discrete
possible future
occurrence that
may affect the
project for better
or worst.
Can have :
Positive outcome
(Opportunities).
Negative outcome
( Risks).
Can be evaluated
by combining its
probability of
.
:
. ( )
. ( )
.
4
.
.
.
.
.
:
. 1.
. 2.
5
.
.
.
.
( )
.
.
Uncertainty
) ( :
:
)( .
)( .
.
)
( .
)
( .
Certainty:
when one can specify
exactly what will happen
during the period of time
covered by the decision.
This situation is not
happen very often in
project management .
Risk:
Risk has a place in a
calculus of probabilities
and lend itself to
quantitative expressions.
Uncertainty:
A situation in which there
are no historic data or
previous history relating
the situation being
considered by decision
-maker.
Uncertainty
) )
Many decisions are
taken while most of
the information are
not complete.
Decisions should be
taken with certain
amount of
uncertainty.
Only when things
are certain, the
decision will be to be
found wrong or
right.
There are not wrong
decisions !!
.
) (
. ( )
,
.
.!!!
Thresholds :
Is the point at which a
risk become
unacceptable .
Example : If there is a
delay for 3 weeks or
less , then go on .
: ( )
.
, , )
( ...... ,
.
:
.
:
.
:
. ,
Risk
Management
Planning is the
process of
deciding how to
approach and
conduct the risk
management
activities for a
project.
.
10
Unknown risks:
Cannot be managed.
Project managers
may address them by
applying a general
contingency plan,
based on past
experience with
similar projects.
:
.
.
:
.
,
.
11
:
.
.
.
12
Inputs
1.
2.
3.
4.
Inputs
.
.
.
.
.
.
13
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1.
6.
Source: PMBOK Guide Fourth Edition,
page 227
Outputs
1. Risk management plan
Outputs
1.
.
6.
Project scope
statement
Cost management
plan
Schedule
management plan
Communication
management plan
Enterprise
environmental
factors
Organizational
process assets
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
14
Project teams hold
planning meetings
to develop the risk
management plan.
Attendees at these
meetings may
include:
Project manager.
Selected project team
members.
Stakeholders.
Anyone in the
organization with
responsibility to
manage the risk
planning and
execution activities.
Others, as needed.
.
:
.
.
.
.
.
15
General
organizational
templates for risk
categories and
definitions of terms
will be tailored to
the specific project
such as:
Levels of risk.
Probability by type of
risk.
Impact by type of
objectives.
Probability and
impact matrix.
:
.
.
.
.
.
16
The risk
management
plan describes
how risk
management
will be
structured and
performed on
the project.
It becomes a
subset of the
project
Methodology
.
Roles and
responsibilities
Budgeting
Timing
Risk categories
Definitions of risk
probability and impact
Probability and impact
matrix
Revised stakeholders
tolerances
Reporting formats
Tracking
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
18
.
19
Identify
Risks
determines
which risks
might affect
the project
and
documents
Risk Categories
) (
:
20
: ,,
, .
: ,,
, )
( ,
,,
, ,
... .
: .
:
%10 .
By source of
risks :
External :
regulatory,
environmental,
government, market
shifts.
Internal : time, cost,
scope changes,
inexperience, poor
planning, people,
staffing, materials,
equipments Etc..
Technical : changes
in technology .
Unforeseeable :
Risk Categories
) (
Caused or
generated by
risks :
The customer .
Lack of project
management efforts .
Lack of knowledge of
project
management .
The customers
customer .
Suppliers .
Resistance to
:
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
21
Quality risks:
Failure to complete
tasks to the
required level of
:
,
.
:
.
22
Risk Categories
) (
,
300 .
)
( :
23
.
. $ 12,000
.
%25
.
Scope :
We may not have
prepare a good
statement of work for
building the ramp . That
will delay us more four
days and cost more
$12,000 .
Resources :
The experienced
engineer will not arrive
until next week , this
can add 300 working
hours to the schedule .
Customer
satisfaction
( Stakeholder
satisfaction ) :
If our customer was not
satisfied for the results
of submitted work . It
may increase our
) ( :
:
.
)
( :
24
.
.
:
.
.
.
:
)( .
.
Items or situations
containing no uncertainty.
Risks that where identified.
Example : Death It will
happen & there is no
uncertainty about it.
Known Unknowns:
Unknown Unknowns
(Unknown Risks):
Neither know about them
nor know about effects.
Risks that where not
identified.
Example : before the first
Technical quality, or
performance risks:
Project management
Risks:
Organizational Risks:
External Risks:
,
:
:
, ,
.
:
, :
,
.
:
, :
, ,
........ , ,( )
:
,, :
, ,
,
.
25
Pure ( Insurable )
Risks:
Risks that presents
:
.
.
.
. :
)
: (
.
. :
26
)
: (
, , , () )
. (... ,
)
( )
:
)(
.
.
: ( )
.
)
: ( .....
, ,
. )(
27
28
29
:
.
.
. ( )
.
.
.
.
.
.
30
.
.
.
.
.
31
Risk MP
Activity cost estimates
Activity duration estimates
Scope baseline
Stakeholder register
Cost MP
Schedule MP
Quality MP
Project documents
Enterprise env. factors
Organizational process assets
1.
1. Documentation reviews
2. Information gathering
techniques
3. Checklist analysis
4. Assumptions analysis
5. Diagramming techniques
6. SWOT analysis
7. Expert judgment
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Risk register
Outputs
Inputs
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
32
Outputs
Inputs
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
1.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
33
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
34
Documentation Reviews
A structured review
may be performed of
project
documentation,
including:
Plans
Assumptions
Prior project files
Contracts .
Other information
:
.
.
.
.
.
35
36
Information gathering
techniques
Brainstormin
.
g
.
Delphi
.
technique.
.
Interviewing .
Root cause
analysis .
.
SWOT
Information Gathering
Techniques
Brain storming :
:
Done in a meeting where one
idea helps generate another .
Delphi technique :
Interviewing (expert
interviewing):
Team or project manager
interviewing project
participants, stakeholders , or
experts to identify risks on the
project or specific element of
work .
:
.
,
.
.
:
.
: ( )
. , ,
.
37
Checklist analysis
Risk identification
checklists can be
developed based on
historical information
and knowledge that has
been accumulated from
previous similar projects
and from other sources
of information.
The lowest level of the
RBS can also be used as
a risk checklist.
While a checklist can be
quick and simple, it is
impossible to build an
exhaustive one.
Care should be taken to
explore items that do
not appear on the
checklist.
The checklist should be
reviewed during project
closure to improve it for
use on future projects.
.
.
.
.
.
38
Assumptions analysis
39
.
.
.
Every project is
conceived and
developed based on a
set of hypotheses,
scenarios, or
assumptions.
Assumptions analysis
is a tool that explores
the validity of
assumptions as they
apply to the project.
It identifies risks to the
project from
inaccuracy,
inconsistency, or
Diagramming techniques
System or process
flow charts:
Influence diagrams:
These are graphical
representations of situations
showing causal influences,
time ordering of events, and
other relationships among
variables and outcomes.
:
.
:
.
.
.
40
SWOT Analysis
,,
.
.
.
.
.
41
SWOT Analysis
,,
42
.
.
.
.
Strengths
Weaknesse
s
Opportuniti
es
Threats
internal to your
, (
project and
organization, and
:
can be assessed
through:
.
Internal surveys
Focus Groups
.
Open Forums
,
,
:
Internal reports:
. ,
finance,
performance,
quality, production
capabilities
43
)
(
:
.
.
. ( )
44
,,
SWOT
Risk register
.
. ( )
.
:
.
.
46
Perform
Qualitative
Risk Analysis
includes
methods for
prioritizing the
identified risks
for further
action, such as
Quantitative
Risk Analysis or
,
.
47
)(
.
.
48
Outputs
Inputs
Tools & Techniques
1.
2.
3.
4.
Risk register
Risk management plan
Project scope statement
Organizational process
assets
Inputs
.
.
.
.
49
1.
2.
3.
4.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Outputs
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
1.
.
.
, , ,
. ,
.
.
:
.
/ )
. (
.
50
1. Risk register
2. Risk
management
plan
3. Project scope
statement
4. Organization
al process
assets
.
.
.
.
1.
2.
3.
4.
51
1. Risk probability
and impact
assessment
2. Probability and
impact matrix
3. Risk data
quality
assessment
4. Risk
categorization
5. Risk urgency
assessment
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
52
Risk probability
assessment
investigates the
likelihood that each
specific risk will
occur.
Risk impact
assessment
investigates the
potential effect on a
project objective
such as time, cost,
scope, or quality,
including both
negative effects for
threats and positive
.
.
53
.
.
.
54
.
. (
)
( , , ,
. (0.1,0,3,0,5,0.7,0.9 )
55
.
.
.
56
Risks requiring
near-term
responses may
be considered
more urgent to
address.
Indicators of
priority can
include time to
affect a risk
"
."
"
"
.
58
"
":
59
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Prioritized Risks
*
RISK Item
Overall
Prb. Impact
Risk
2
Unavailable
H/W before 3rd party arrival
3
Unavailable
resources during Ramadan
4
Hardware
component de-release
5
Management
change
6
Requirements
Change
60
Prioritized Risks
6
61
"
"
""
.
"
"
.
.
62
Outputs
Inputs
1. Risk register
2. Risk management plan
3. Cost management
plan
4. Schedule management
plan
5. Organizational process
assets
Inputs
63
.
.
.
.
.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1.
.
2.
.
. 3.
Source: PMBOK Guide Fourth Edition,
page 295
Outputs
1.
.
1. Risk register
2. Risk
management
plan
3. Cost
management
plan
4. Schedule
management
plan
5. Organizational
.
.
.
.
.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
64
1. Data
gathering
and
representatio
n techniques
2. Quantitative
risk analysis
and modeling
techniques
3. Expert
judgment
1.
.
2.
.
. 3.
65
Interviewin
g.
Probability
distribution
s.
Expert
.
.
.
66
Interviewing
.
.
.
67
Interviewing
techniques are
used to quantify
the probability and
impact of risks on
project objectives.
The information
needed depends
upon the type of
probability
distributions that
will be used
Probability distributions
Continuous
probability
distributions
represent the
uncertainty in
values, such as
durations of
schedule activities
and costs of project
components.
Discrete
distributions can be
used to represent
uncertain events,
such as the outcome
of a test or a
.
.
68
Probability distributions
Distribution Type Description
Uniform
Normal
Triangular
)
. (
)
. (
,
,
.
69
:
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
70
Mean :
Sum of exposures
divided by the
number of exposures.
Median:
The mid point in a
range of exposures.
Mode:
The most frequently
occurring values.
Probability:
Probability of
occurrence as
estimated.
: ( )
.
:
.
:
.
71
72
We have the
following
numbers
12,22,26,25,22,17,24
,22,26,22,27 .
Sum = 245
Number of reading
= 11
= Mean = 245L11
22.27
Median = 22
Mode = 22
Probability
( )
73
:
:
) ( =
X =
:
1
:
1 =
:
0,80 = ( )
0,70 =
( )
0,80X 0,70 = 0,56 = ( )
0,80X 0,30 = = ( )
0,24
0,20X 0,70 = = ( )
0,14
X 0,30 = 0,20= ( )
74
0,06
:
/
= 100% = 1
: 1
75
0,25 = 1
0,30 = 2
0,45 = 3
= 1,00
: 2
+
= 1,00
)
( = 0,70
)
( =
0,30 = 0,70 1,00
Summation Rule :
Sum of Probabilities of
alternatives for a given event /
decision :
= 1 = 100%
Example 1 :
) Probability ( Alternative 1
=0.25
) Probability ( Alternative 2
=0.30
) Probability ( Alternative 3
=0.45
Total
= 1.00
Example 2 :
= ) Pr ( No Event ) + Pr ( Event
1.00
Probability that we get
approval for our project next
= month
Pr( Approval ) = 0.70 = 70%
Sensitivity
analysis
Expected
monetary
value analysis
Decision tree
analysis
Modeling and
simulation
.
.
.
.
76
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis
helps to determine
which risks have the
most potential impact
on the project.
It examines the extent
to which the
uncertainty of each
project element
affects the objective
being examined when
all other uncertain
elements are held at
their baseline values.
.
.
77
78
) (.
.
.
(EMV) analysis is a
statistical concept that
calculates the average
outcome when the future
includes scenarios that
may or may not happen
The EMV of opportunities
will generally be expressed
as positive values, while
those of risks will be
negative.
EMV is calculated by
multiplying the value of
each possible outcome by
its probability of
occurrence, and adding
them together.
Example
:
Work
packa
ge
A
B
Proba
bility
8%
35 %
57 %
Expec
ted
impac
monet
t
ary
value
8%
$30,0
00
$
2,400
35 %
$75,0
00
$
26,25
0
57 %
$48,0
00
$
27,36
0
$30,0
00
$
2,400
$75,0
00
$
26,25
0
$
27,36
0
$48,0
00
79
Decision Tree
Analysis:
Is a diagram
that describes a
decision under
consideration
and the
implications of
choosing one or
another of
available
alternatives.
.
80
)
, (
.
) (
,
.
,
.
81
.
X )
(
.
82
Quantitative Risk Analysis Modeling Techniques Tools & Techniques of Quantitative Risk Analysis
Decision Tree : select
the path with
maximum Expected
monetary value (EMV):
Chance
Event
Decision
Point
:
.
Outcome
100,00
0.70
s
s
e
c
Suc 0
0
0,7
Failu
re 0
0,30 .30
0. 40
s
s
e
c
Suc
0,40
Failu
re 0
0,60 .60
- 30,000
200,00
0
40,000
EVM
100
k X 0.70
= 70 k
100 k X 0.30
= - 9 k 61
k
200 k X 0.40
= 80 k
-40 k X 0.60
= 24 k
56
k
83
$ 242,000
5%
3
y
e
ur bilit ,00
l
i
Fa oba 000
pr $ 12 ct
d
pa
n
m
A
I
Pass
: No
Impa
ct
et
s
e
yp
t
o
ot up
r
P
00
0
00,
$2
Do
n
t P
r
set ototy
pe
u p
$0
Prototype - -
70%
e
r
lu
it y
Fai babil 000
,
pro 450
$
t
d
A n mpa c
I Pa
s
Imp s No
a ct
35% X $ 120,000
42,000
=$
$42,000+$200,000 = $
242,000
Dont Prototype
70% X $450,000
=$
84
eA0
n
i
0
rl
Ai $ 9
e
Fe
$ 1,300
Air
Fee line B
$3
00
Late
$ 4 ,0
00
im e
T
On 0%
7
Lat
$4 e
,00
0
85
.
.
86
.
.
.
.
)
. (
.
.
87
.
.
.
88
Quantified Risks
*
RISK Element
Overall
Risk
Prb. Impact
50%
1,000 500
40%
2,000 800
30%
1,500 500
40%
2,000 800
30%
1,000 300
TOTAL
89
2,900
Quantified Risks
500
1,000
50%
800
2,000
40%
500
1,500
30%
800
2,000
40%
300
1,000
30%
2,900
TOTAL
90
.
.
.
: )
%80
%60 ,
$ 345,000
.
.
.
. ,
91
Risk Response
Planning is the
process of
developing
options, and
determining
actions to
enhance
opportunities
and reduce
threats to the
projects
.
92
1. Risk register
2. Risk management plan
Inputs
. 1.
2.
.
93
.
.
.
.
Outputs
1. Risk register updates
2. Risk-related contract
decisions
3. Project management
plan updates
4. Project document
updates
Outputs
1.
2.
3.
4.
.
.
.
.
1.
2.
3.
4.
1. Risk
register.
2. Risk
manageme
nt plan .
. 1.
2.
.
94
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
95
96
)(.
)( .
)(.
.
Avoid .
Transfer .
Mitigate .
Accept .
Contingent
Response
Strategy.
Risk Avoidance
) )
Eliminate the threat
by eliminating the
causes .
Is changing the
project plan to
eliminate the risk or
condition or to
protect the project
objectives from its
impact.
Although the project
team never eliminate all
risks events, some
specific risks may be
avoided.
Eliminating a specific
threats usually by
eliminating the cause.
Remove a work
.
.
)(
.
.
.
97
Risk Avoidance
) )
Examples :
Some risk event that
arise early in the
project can be dealt
with by clarifying
requirements, obtaining
information, improving
communication, or
acquire expertise.
Reducing scope or re
scoping to avoid high
risk activities .
Adding resources or
time.
Adopting a familiar
approach instead of an
innovative one.
Adopting an unfamiliar
subcontractor.
:
,
.
.
.
. ( )
. ()
.
98
Risk Transference
) )
)(
.
. ,
) (
.
.
. -
.
99
Risk Mitigation
) )
/
.
.
/
.
,
.
100
Risk Mitigation
) )
Implementation of a
new course of action to
reduce the problem:
Example : adopting less
complex processes,
conducting more seismic or
engineering tests, or
choosing a more stable
sellers.
Changing conditions to
reduce probability of
the risk:
Example : adding resources
or time to the schedule (Not
to the degree of avoidance).
Prototype development
to reduce the risk of
scaling up from a bench
scale model.
Targeting linkages that
determine the severity:
:
, :
. ,
:
:
. ()
.
)(
:
:
.
101
Risks Acceptance
strategy that is
adopted because it
is seldom possible
to eliminate all risk
from a project.
This strategy
indicates that the
project team has
decided not to
change the project
management plan
to deal with a risk,
or is unable to
identify any other
suitable response
.
.
102
Risks Acceptance
Indicates two
things:
The project team has
decided not to change
the project plan to deal
with a risk.
Is unable to identify any
other suitable response
strategy.
Two types:
Active acceptance:
May include having a
contingency reserve.
Passive acceptance:
Require no action,
leaving the project team
to deal with the risk as
:
.
.
:
: ( )
: ( )
.
103
4. Acceptance.
5. Contingent
Response
Strategy.
:
. ( ) 1.
. ( ) 2.
. ( )3.
4.
5.
.
104
Risk Exploiting
) )
Reverse of avoid .
This strategy may be selected for risks
with positive impacts where the
organization wishes to ensure that the
opportunity is realized.
This strategy seeks to eliminate the
uncertainty associated with a
particular upside risk by making the
opportunity definitely happen.
Sharing a positive risk involves
allocating ownership to a third party
who is best able to capture the
opportunity for the benefit of the
project.
Examples :
Forming Risk Sharing
partnerships, teams, special
purpose companies, or joint
ventures, which can be
established with the express
purpose of managing
opportunities.
Team work Or Joint Venture .
Assigning more talented resources
to the project to reduce the time
to completion, or to provide better
quality than originally planned.
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:
, ,
,
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. ( )
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. ) (
105
Risk Enhancing
) , ) -
.
/
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.
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106
( The reverse of
) mitigate
This strategy is used
to increase the
probability and/or the
positive impacts of an
opportunity.
Identifying and
maximizing key
drivers of these
positive-impact risks
may increase the
probability of their
occurrence.
Examples of
Risk Enhancing
) - , )
A strategy to modify the
Size of an opportunity
by :
Increasing probability or /
and positive impacts.
Identifying and
maximizing key drivers
of the positive - impact
risks.
Seeking to facilitate or
strengthen the cause of
the opportunity , and
proactively targeting
and reinforcing its
trigger conditions ,
might increase
probability.
Impact drivers : can also
be targeted ,seeking to
:
/
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,
. ,
:
,
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107
Risk Share
) )
.
.
.
share.
Sharing a positive risk
involves allocating
some or all of the
ownership of the
opportunity to a third
party who is best able
to capture the
opportunity for the
benefit of the project.
Examples of sharing
actions include forming
risk-sharing
partnerships, teams,
special-purpose
companies, or joint
ventures, which can be
established with the
express purpose of
taking advantage of the
Risk Acceptance
Being willing
to take an
advantage of
the
opportunity
if it comes
along, but
.
will not
actively
109
110
Contingent Response
Strategies
.
.
) (
.
Contingent Response
Strategies
a response plan
that will only be
executed under
predefined
conditions, if is
believed that there
will be sufficient
warning to
implement the plan.
Examples of events
that trigger the
contingency
response:
Risk: Missing
intermediate
milestones.
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:
:
:
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:
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Description of strategy
Name of
risk
response
strategy
Accept .
Remove a troublesome
recourse from the project .
Avoid .
Mitigate
the
Probabili
ty .
Transfer .
Mitigate
the
impact .
) (
.
. ( )
112
Description of strategy
Name of risk
response
strategy
Avoid .
Mitigat
e of
impact.
Exploit
.
Enhanc
e the
Impact
.
( )
.
.
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1.
2.
3.
4.
114
()( )
)
(
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"
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115
)
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116
Monitor and
Control Risks is the
process of:
Implementing risk
response plans
Tracking identified
risks
Monitoring residual
risks
Identifying new
risks
Evaluating risk
Inputs
.
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.
118
1.
2.
3.
4.
Outputs
1. Risk reassessment
2. Risk audits
3. Variance and trend
analysis
4. Technical performance
measurement
5. Reserve analysis
6. Status meetings
Outputs
.
.
.
.
.
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
.
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.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
119
) (
.
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.
)
( .
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) ( .
.
,
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( )
) (
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120
1. Risk register
2. Project
management
plan
3. Work
performance
information
4. Performance
reports
.
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.
.
1.
2.
3.
4.
121
122
.
.
) ( .
.
.
.
1. Risk
reassessment
2. Risk audits
3. Variance and
trend analysis
4. Technical
performance
measurement
5. Reserve
analysis
6. Status
Risk Reassessment
123
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.
Risk Audits
:
,
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124
A team auditors
conducts risks
auditing .
Checking for plans,
risk owners if they
take actions
regarding their
risks .
Arranged by
project manager
and results in
identification of
lesson learned
Risk Audits
) (
.
125
Risk audits
examine and
document the
effectiveness of
risk responses
in dealing with
identified risks
and their root
causes, as well
as the
effectiveness of
the risk
.
,
.
.
126
Reserves
Reserves
( Contingency ) :
You cannot come with costs
or schedule without reserves
.
Two types of reserves :
Contingency Reserve :
Account for
Known Unknowns
or Known . These
are items you identified
in risk management .
They cover the residual
risks in the project .
Management Reserve :
Account for
Unknown Unknowns
or Unknowns .
Items you did not or
could not identified in
risk management .
: ( )
.
:
:
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:
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.
127
Reserves - Example
-
8 Cost Budget
7 Management Reserve
6 Cost Baseline
5 Contingency Reserve
4 Project Estimates
2 Work Packages
Estimates
1 Activity Estimates
128
Project Data
Reserves - Example
-
Cost Contingency
reserve calculation
There is 30 %
probability of a delay
in the receipt of
parts , with cost of $
9,000 .
30 % X $ 9,000 = $
2,700
Add $ 2,700
There is 20 %
probability that parts
will cost of $ 10,000
less than expected .
20 % X $ 10,000 = $
2,000
Subtract $ 2,000
There is 25 %
probability that two
parts will not fit
together when
installing , with extra
cost of $ 3,500 .
25 % X $ 3,500 = $
$875
Add $ 875
30 % X $ 2,500 = $
2,000
Subtract $ 750
There is 5 %
probability of a
design defects, with
5 % X $ 5,000 = $
$250
Add $ 2500
%30
. $9,000
X $ 9,000 = $ % 30
2,700
2,700 $
%20
. $10,000
X $ 10,000 = $ % 20
2,000
2,000 $
%25
,
. $3,000
X $ 3,500 = $ % 25
$875
875 $
%30
. $2,500 ,
X $ 2,500 = $ % 30
2,000
750 $
%5
,
. $5,000
X $ 5,000 = $ % 5
$250
2500 $
1,075 $
129
Reserve Analysis
130
.
.
Throughout
execution of the
project, some risks
may occur, with
positive or negative
impacts on budget
or schedule
contingency
reserves.
Reserve analysis
compares the
amount of the
contingency
reserves remaining
to the amount of risk
remaining at any
time in the project,
in order to
Reserve Analysis
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,
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) (
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.
131
Status Meetings
132
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
133
Requested Changes
Implementing
contingency plans or
workarounds frequently
results in a requirement
to change the project
management plan to
respond to risks.
Requested changes are
prepared and submitted
to the Integrated Change
Control process as an
output of the Risk
Monitoring and Control
process.
Approved change
requests are issued and
become inputs to the
Direct and Manage
Project Execution process
and to the Risk
.
.
( )
.
134
135
.
)
( .
.
.
This includes
contingency plans and
workaround plans.
The latter are
responses that were
not initially planned,
but are required to
deal with emerging
risks that were
previously unidentified
or accepted passively.
Workarounds should
be properly
documented.
Recommended
corrective actions are
inputs to the
Integrated Change
Control process
Workarounds
.
.
.
136
Contingency
responses are
developed in
advance.
Workarounds are
unplanned
responses
developed to deal
with the occurrence
of unanticipated risk
events .
Project manager
who do not perform
risk management
Recommende
d preventive
actions are
used to bring
the project
into
compliance
with the
project
management
.
137
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,
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138
It may allowed
team to
concentrates
on risks still
alive .
Closing a risk
event may
require to
retaining back
its reserve to
.
.
139
Questions
?
140