Tools for Systems Thinking and Modeling

Dynamics: Graphs over time Structure: Causal-loop Diagrams

System Dynamics Group, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany

A Systems Perspective
Reactive

Events and Decisions

Adaptive

Patterns of Behavior
Generative

System Structure

System Dynamics Group, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany

Distancing...
A systems view stands back just far enough to... Deliberately blur discrete events into patterns of behavior
Deliberately move from a focus on individual decisions to a focus on policy structure

System Dynamics Group, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany

The Systems Perspective

Reactive

Events and Decisions

Adaptive

Patterns of Behavior
Generative

System Structure

System Dynamics Group, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany

Dynamic Thinking
Define problems in terms of graphs over time.
Graph important variables Graph historical data Graph anticipated dynamics Graph preferred dynamics

Use these to focus systems thinking and modeling

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Unemployment (%)

11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 19 48 19 58 19 68 19 78 19 88 19 98

System Dynamics Group, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany

New York City Populations

8000000 7000000 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Bronx Brooklyn Manhattan Queens

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Percentages of high school grads completing college, by ethnicity

40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 W hite Black Hispanic

System Dynamics Group, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany

19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97

Unemployment & Welfare in Dutchess County, NY

Welfare roll

Unemployment

System Dynamics Group, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany

New York State K-12 Public Education Expenditures per Pupil

$14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 1965 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
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Strive for Dynamic Insights

Heres where we went wrong...

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So youre getting more education

Income
Your Historical Income

Your Hoped For Income

Your Feared Income Time

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The Systems Perspective

Reactive

Events and Decisions

Adaptive

Patterns of Behavior
Generative

System Structure

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System Structure
Accumulations
AKA Stocks Accumulations are both tangible and intangible
Resources, populations Preferences, feelings, pressures, perceptions

Causal structure: feedback loops Delays Policies governing decisions

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Causal Diagrams
Causal mapping is a powerful tool for representing structure in complex systems. Arrows indicate causal influence.

Student native ability

Family stress

Student achievement in school Underage drug and alcohol use in the community Teacher talent and resources

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Polarities of Causal Links

Positive and negative signs show the direction of causality: + = direct relation = inverse relation

Student native ability

Family stress

Student achievement in school Teacher talent and resources

Underage drug and alcohol use in the community

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Definitions of Link Polarities

An increase in A makes B greater than it would have been without the change; a decrease in A makes B less . An increase in C makes D less than it would have been without the change; a decrease in C makes D greater. All words phrases are expressed as quantities that have a clear sense of increase or decrease. No verbs the action is in the arrows.
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Examples
+
Parental Support for School Administration

Test Scores

Higher test scores mean more support; lower scores, less support.
More teachers mean smaller classes; smaller classes mean more learning. Fewer teachers would mean larger classes and less learning.

Teachers

Class Size

Student Learning

Ceteris paribus... All other influences held constant as we assign polarities.

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Feedback Loops
A feedback loop exists when decisions change the state of the system, changing the conditions and information that influence future decisions.
Action Decisions Perceptions State of the system

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The Joy of Feedback

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The Joy of Feedback

System Dynamics Group, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany

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No its more like the life cycle of the famous scientist

System Dynamics Group, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany

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Examples of Feedback Loops

Teacher morale

+
Teacher effort

+
Student achievement

+
Student effort

+
Quality of communication

Quality of communication between teams

Trust

Quality of communication within teams

+
Risk taking

+
Teamwork

+
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Two kinds of feedback loops

Reinforcing loops
self-reinforcing growth producing destabilizing accelerating even number of s

Counteracting loops
balancing goal seeking stabilizing compensating odd number of s

Symbolized by
R +

Symbolized by
B C

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Examples of Reinforcing Loops

Performance

Births per year

+
Population

+
Motivation

+
Attractiveness for business Expected profitability of business

+Number of private
businesses

+
Tax base

Tax rate

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Reinforcing Feedback in the Newspaper

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Reinforcing Feedback in the Newspaper

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Reinforcing Feedback in the Newspaper

Garfields (R) Jons happiness suspicion

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Examples of Balancing Loops

Desired spending on education

Pressure to raise tax revenues for education

Total education revenues

Share of tax revenues to education

+ +

Pressure to raise taxes

Tax revenues

Education revenues from the lottery

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What are these loops, and what stories do they tell?

+
Number of agencies involved

Desired educational improvement Educational improvement

+
Network complexity

+
Total school improvement effort

+
Teacher morale

Ease of communication and collaboration

Average agency effectiveness

+
Teacher effort

Student achievement

+
Student effort
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System Dynamics Group, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany

Tips for Determining Link and Loop Polarities

For each link, determine the effect of an increase in the variable at the tail of the arrow:
If the variable at the head increases, assign a plus. If the variable at the head decreases, assign a minus.

For each loop, count the number of negative signs:

An even number of negative links is a reinforcing (R) loop. An odd number of negative links is a balancing (B) loop.

Most important: For each loop, tell a self-reinforcing or balancing/counteracting story, and check that the story matches the loop polarity.
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Linking Feedback Structure and Dynamic Behavior

Linking causal loop thinking with graphs over time

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World Population (billions)

8
6

4
2 0
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

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Self-reinforcing processes in world population growth

Births per year

Population

Deaths per year R

Capital accumulation R Knowledge accumulation

Average lifespan

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Typical Reinforcing Loop Behavior

Attractiveness for business Expected profitability of business Tax rate Number of private businesses

Lets assume a tax increase. What will the graph look like?
10,000

Tax base

9,000

8,000

7,000

Businesses and taxes loop in a reinforcing decline

0 25 50 75 100 35

6,000 System Dynamics Group, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany

Typical Counteracting Loop Behavior

Desired amount of water in glass

Water in glass

+
Pouring rate

Fraction filled

20 15 10 5 0

Filling a Glass

10

20

30

40
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System Dynamics Group, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, University at Albany

Typical Counteracting Loop Behavior

Gypsie moth net growth Gypsie moths

Wasps

Wasp net growth

Predator-prey interactions

7.5

15

22.5

30

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Summary of Structure and Behavior

Reinforcing loops are responsible for accelerating growth, accelerating decline, or traps due to inertia Counteracting loops are much more prevalent but often less obvious; they balance and adapt Counteracting loops can compensate for policy initiatives and defeat intended effects Combinations of reinforcing and counteracting loops are responsible for all the complex dynamics we create in our complex systems.
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