Emerging Challenges and Opportunities in Agricultural Research ICAR perspective and Response

National Academy of Agricultural Research Management Hyderabad, AP, India http://www.naarm.ernet.in

Outline
Driving forces of future agricultural research
agricultural scenario food security and livelihoods security market driven agriculture: research to innovation sustainability concerns: climate change - risk, adaptation, mitigation natural resources conservation - soils, water, biodiversity, environment agricultural mechanization robotics, automation, precision agriculture emerging sciences: nanotechnology, bioinformatics, systems biology, ecosystems science, biofuels; data driven science intellectual property management and technology commercialization agricultural knowledge systems networks of data, information, knowledge, institutions

ICAR response - new vision, mission, strategy, partnerships Scientist response acquiring required competencies (KSA)

Agricultural scenario - changing context of production systems

Source: USDA, 2011

Agri- outputs = f (policies, markets, technology/knowledge, stakeholder interests) Multifunctionality of outputs: commodities (food, feed, fibers, biofuels, medicinal products, ornamentals) non-commodities (energy, environmental services)

Agricultural Scenario economy

GDP growth

5.43%

6%

8%

GDP growth

5.43%

6%

8%

Agricultural Scenario: Food demand (million tons)

GDP growth

5.43%

6%

8%
Pressure on food more food diversified food better quality food safe food

Ramesh Chand - 2012

Agricultural Scenario land resources for agriculture

Needed: Sustainable intensification of agriculture

Agricultural Scenario water, energy, labour

2050 5.4% 6% 8%

increase in Net area under irrigation from current level of 63 mha to 81 mha and gross irrigated area from 88 mha to 117 mha

Ramesh Chand - 2012

Required Increase in Resource Use Efficiency 2010 to 2050

5.43% 6% 8%

5.43% 6% 8% Needed: four fold increase in land productivity doubling of energy use efficiency three fold increase in water productivity six fold increase in labour productivity

Agricultural scenario risks: oil prices, drought, pests, policies

Connections among commodities and prices Corn-oil connections - Oil > up to $ 140 a barrel led to corn for biofuel -Financial speculation in grains Impact of 25% change in oil prices Wheat prices affected by: - Drought in Australia - outbreak of new wheat rust UG99 - shift to livestock feed Rice prices affected by: - Indias ban on exports - poor weather - consumer subsidies

Agricultural scenario : food Inflation

Source:, Gulati, 2013

Food security
Food security is the ability of all people at all times to access enough food for an active and healthy life.
Two levels over 40 percent in China and India National

Household

Hunger index
Source: IFPRI, 2008

Drivers of food insecurity and complexities

Increasing population Slowing of increases in agricultural productivity Changing and converging consumption patterns Growing demand for livestock products (meat and dairy), particularly those fed on grain Increasing water and land scarcity Adverse impacts of climate change Growing demand for biofuels

Source: Royal Society UK, 2009

Food security productivity concerns yield gaps

(Global)

Source USDA, 2011

Yield gaps global yield variability is controlled by fertilizer use, irrigation and climate management practices needed to close yield gaps vary by region meeting food security will require considerable changes in nutrient and water management.
Mueller et al, 2012

Source Lobell et al, 2010

Food security productivity concerns TFP

India

Source USDA, 2011

increases in fertilizer use were dominant sources of productivity increase in green revolution years increases in TFP raise efficiency of input use in later years

Source: Ramesh Chand, 2011

cause of concern in India is declining TFP trends for major crops .

Markets: Changing the perspective of agricultural research

Agricultural production systems are increasingly affected by: markets/consumers/retail global integration through trade regulatory frameworks and ethical choices uncertainty of production, consumption, trade Increasing access to knowledge National and global policy consensus: need to raise rural incomes agricultural research & technological improvements will continue to be prime drivers of rural In the Agricultural Innovation System: incomes knowledge generation and technology value addition in agriculture is largest untapped transfer are based on complex source of income backward and forward linkages between agricultural research, production, agro-industry and Value addition links farmers with consumers consumers and research with innovation requires transforming NARS to NAIS

Markets: Increasing share of private investment in research

In sectors like biotechnology investment capacities of private sector >> public sector US $ million Company Bayer Syngenta Monsanto Pioneer BASF CGIAR ICAR (XI FYP) Crop protection 730 500 40 215 340 Seed/ biotechnology 110 310 490 312 93 Total (R&D as % of sales) 840 (11%) 810 (11%) 530 (10%) 527 (11%) 433 (10%) 428 ~ 500 R in R&D 126 122 80 79 51 257
Adapted from : Spielman, 2007

Increasing role of private sector: Investments in the food sector by the corporate world
Need to engage with the corporate system across the food chain

Source: Von Braun 2008

Research focus: production-consumption chain

focus on commodities and value addition add and accumulate value from one link to next in the value chain innovations at each link for improved competitiveness addresses complex forward and backward linkages along value chain through public-private partnerships (PPP)

Research focus: livelihood security

Fig Source: DFID

focus on forward and backward linkages among livelihood opportunities, resources and factors at macro and micro economic levels partnerships with NGOs, Govt Depts

Agricultural research

Climate change

Fig Source : IPCC, 2001

Climate change (IPCC Definition): change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer

The climate change process

Emissions GHGs Concentrations of GHGs in atmosphere Warming (climate forcing) Climate change (Temp, rain, sea-level) Impacts
Sources: transportation, energy, agriculture (methane, Nitrous oxide, CO2)

Observed and simulated temperature change (IPCC, 2007)

state-of-the-art climate models, reproduce almost perfectly the last 125 years of observed temperatures.

Predicting climate change and impacts

EMISSIONS CONCENTRATIONS CO2, methane, etc.

Scenarios from population, energy, economics models Carbon cycle, chemistry and hydrology models Gas properties Coupled climate models

HEATING EFFECT Climate Forcing.

CLIMATE CHANGE Temp, rain, sea-level, etc.

IMPACTS Flooding, food supply, etc. Fig source: Srinivasan, IMD

feedbacks

Impacts models

Scenarios IPCC (AR4)

40 scenarios grouped in 4 families - A1, A2, B1, B2 - A1: rapid growth in globalized world, high energy use - A2: slow development, slow convergence; use of renewable energy - B1: similar to A1;more emphasis on energy conservation and environment (information, services) - B2: slow development, local solutions for sustainable development corresponding GHG emission levels for each scenario marker scenarios: for each family identified

IPCC AR 5 scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Radiative forcing target levels in 2100

Rise in CO2 conc. and temperature for different IPCC scenarios

2005 - 2009, actual emissions above those for marker scenarios except A1B, but within range of the scenario envelope reduction in emissions 2009 because of global economic downturn by 2050, the global surface warming for the A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios is about the same (1C above the reference) temperature increases diverge significantly after 2050: A2 scenario results in highest increases by the end of the 21st century, about 3.5 C

Climate projections- state-of-art

Wide range of temperature projections for SRES scenarios and RCPs of average temperature increase between 2090 and 2099 (Rogelj et al, 2012)

Source: Winkler et al, 2011

CMIP5 provides access to a wide range of gridded data sets of climate model projections impact models are sector specific lack of integrated assessments impact models typically use only one GCM projections - account only for a limited range of projections (outputs do not include climate model uncertainty) issues: integrated assessments; dealing with range of projections (climate uncertainty) ?

Climate change and food prices

Even With no climate change, world prices for rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans will increase by 62%, 39%, 63%, and 72% respectively between 2000 and 2050, because of increasing population and income growth, and biofuels Climate change results in additional price increases: 32 to 37% for rice, 52 to 55% for maize, 94 to 111% for wheat, and 11 to 14% percent for soybeans. Livestock are not directly affected, but effects of higher feed prices caused by climate change are passed on to livestock

Climate change impacts on food security

Calories Child malnutrition

prices

decline in calorie availability and per capita consumption of meat and cereals increase in prices affects household food security increase in child malnutrition
Nelson et al, 2009

Systemic impacts: Vulnerability and adaptive capacity

IPCC Definitions Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity is the degree to which the system can modify its circumstances to move to a less vulnerable condition Multiscale and multidimensional phenomena Vulnerability is intrinsic to the system whereas adaptive capacity is dependent on both intrinsic and exogenous factors (technology, institutions, etc)

IPCC framework for climate change assessments

Provides basic framework for research planning and identification of competencies for capacity building

India Impacts on agriculture

2010 Change in grain yield, % 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0 -25.0 -30.0 -35.0
Change in grain yield, % Year 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 Minimum Maximum 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Minimum Maximum

2020

2030

Year 2040

2050

2060

2070

Milk production

Wheat

Basmati quality

Rice
Source: Aggarwal, 2002

India Vulnerability and adaptive capacity

Biophysical vulnerability Social vulnerability Technical vulnerability

Adaptive capacity

Low adaptive capacity: districts in Bihar (Jharkhand), Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka

Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture

productivity decrease due to increase in temperature and decrease in water availability (especially in Indo-Gangetic plains). greater loss in rabi ; every 1oC increase in temperature reduces wheat production by 45 million tons. increased climatic extremes- droughts and floods- lead to increased production variability increased fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; leading to higher emissions loss of 1.5 million tons of milk by 2020 in business as usual scenario increasing sea and river water temperatures affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests effects on microbes, pathogens, and insects imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on Europe and N. America quality of several commodities could change, e.g basmati rice, medicinal and aromatic plants Less Favoured Areas can become more vulnerable

Source PK Aggarwal, 2008

Adaptation options
Agronomy: time of planting, changes in inputs, timing, water management New crops/varieties: drought/heat resistant diversification

Note: Even with adaptation poverty and hunger may not decline: T (+ 2C) + precipitation (+) 7% GDPAgri 7% T (+ 3.5C) + precipitation (+ 15% ) GDPAgri 2.5% Poverty Hunger (Kavikumar, 2002) climate change is global, whereas adaptation is intensely local uncertainties in scaling down model scenarios to local scales adaptation is seasonal and usually considered at 3 to 20 year time horizons, whereas climate change scenarios are for far future, 2050/2100 relevance of many current adaptation studies is therefore uncertain

Mitigation strategies
crop improvement Crop management: nutrient management, water management,rice management, land use change, agro-forestry - BMPs can significantly reduce emissions (intermittent irrigation and drainage reduces methane emissions by 40%; conservation tillage, fertilizer management can reduce N2O emissions) Grazing land management Management of Soil organic matter Restoration of degraded lands Livestock management: livestock feed improvements and feed management, dietary additives, animal breeding Waste management Carbon sequestration soil as carbon sink zero tillage, conservation tillage make agriculture a part of solution to climate change problem reduced GHGs can earn carbon credits (can be offset against subsidies) needs better understanding of processes and high traceability of BMPs

Farm Mechanization: Key Driver of agricultural Productivity

source: MM Pandey, 2011

Trend of power availability from different sources

Source; DAC - 2012

Farm mechanization across the production cycle

Inter Inter Cultivation Cultivation Sowing/ Sowing/ Planting Planting Fertiliser Fertiliser Applicati Applicati on on Irrigatio Irrigatio n n Harvesti Harvesti ng ng Post Post Harvesti Harvesti ng ng

Tillage Tillage & & seedbed seedbed Preparatio Preparatio n n

Plant Plant Protection Protection

Mechanized Solutions for whole chain

Essential for: for sustainable intensification of agriculture addressing scarcity of agricultural labour climate change mitigation
source: MM Pandey, 2011

Natural resources: issues for research

focus on multi functional outputs of agriculture ecosystem services productivity + externalities (degradation soil, water, air quality impacts/ loss of productivity) improving input use efficiencies (precision agriculture) systems approach for assessing and evaluating ecosystem services provided by agricultural systems integration across scales field to regional to global scales to connect local and global processes focus on soil health and water quality focus on carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation integrating traditional knowledge institutional frameworks for involving farmers, rural communities in NRM and engaging with civil society organizations

Emerging technologies
progress and convergence of molecular biology, nanotechnology, computer science, control theory, precision manufacturing and measurement technologies, enables in-depth understanding of living organisms at system-level while grounding firmly to the molecular basis integrating new sciences and technologies into agriculture to maintain flow of new technologies and stay globally competitive Many new technologies are enabling in nature integrate into all sciences Modern information technologies allow for collection and use of many different types of agricultural data including real time data: from soils, climate, crop and market conditions, to consumer nutrition and preferences, gene sequences and ecological variables Data sets are massive and present challenges of accessibility, interoperability, and persistence. need for better data-management strategies addressing such issues as data storage, search algorithms, analytical methods, data sharing, and data visualization.

Knowledge as factor of production S&T strategic focus

increasing importance of knowledge as a factor of production timely knowledge interventions at all links in the agri-supply chain: - delivery of inputs - increasing productivities and efficiencies - lowering post harvest losses - processing farm outputs to higher value foods systems for creating, processing and communicating knowledge designing knowledge systems: networking data, information and institutions IP management to increase Freedom to Operate (FTO) to address fragmented ownership of IP engage to promote acceptance by society proactive ex ante regulatory and health and environmental impact studies to design policies, tests and regulatory frameworks institutional arrangements for multidisciplinary and multi-institutional engagement including with private sector

ICAR 2050: Vision, mission, strategy

Vision In 2050 some 1.6 billion people have adequate, nutritous, safe and healthy food, and adequate fibre within limits of the natural system Mission Harness power of science and education with a human touch for higher and sustainable agricultural production. Strategic Focus farmer first green revolution 2 while enhancing natural resources input intensive to knowledge intensive; focus on efficiencies innovation: transform NARS to NAIS create globally competitive human resources foster linkages : PPP, national, international address climate change concerns

ICAR 2030 Harnessing Science

Potential of genetic enhancement: yield, resistance, animal health and quality Power of biotechnology, nanotechnology Synergies of frontier sciences: ICT, GIS, GPS Management of natural resources: IWM, INM, ICM, IPM Agricultural diversification Value addition during post-harvest Management of energy and agricultural waste Management of biorisk Carbon accounting Institutions and policies

Initiate new Research Platforms

Genomics Seed Climate Change Water Conservation Agriculture GM Foods Health Foods Feed & Fodder Fibre Diagnostics and vaccines Precision Farming Farm mechanization Energy Nanotechnology High value compounds Socio economic research E- extension and AKM biodiversity

Natural Resource Management

Climate Resilient Agriculture Dryland Agriculture Hill and Island Agriculture Conservation Agriculture Organic Farming Acid Soil Management

Crop Science
Genomics Stress-tolerant varieties Heterosis for developing hybrids New generation designer crop plants Bio-fortification of staple food crops Pre-breeding for resistance/tolerance to biotic & abiotic stresses Transgenic against biotic stress Microbial genomics in search of new genes

Crop Science (contd..)

Bio-fortification of staple food crops Pre-breeding for resistance/tolerance to biotic & abiotic stresses Transgenic against biotic stress Microbial genomics in search of new genes Development of functional foods and nutraceuticals Certification standards and procedures of transgenic and GM seed Seed production agronomy in relation to climate change Transgenic research, Gene pyramiding, nano-technology research to support conventional breeding Non-products development from good grains using fermentation technology

Horticulture
Hybrid-oriented genetic resources promotional approach Seeds/planting materials increased availability Rejuvenation / Replacement of unproductive orchards Insect pest and disease management Enhancing water and nutrient use efficiency Protected cultivation Precision horticulture Post-harvest management

Animal Science
Animal genomics Stem cell research for animal health and production Cloning Marker assisted selection of qualitative and quantitative traits Nano-technology for drug delivery Molecular diagnostics and vaccines Establishment of DNA, embryo, Vety. Pathgens, rumen/dairy microbe repositories Transgenic for pharmaceutical application Functional & nutraceutical animal products

Fisheries
Marine Fisheries Management Mariculture Breed Improvement Diversification of Species Water Management and Bioremediation Feed Formulations Health Management

Agricultural Engineering
Customized farm implements and machinery Conservation and precision agriculture Reduction in post harvest losses and Post harvest management Nanotechnology for enhancing input use efficiency and value addition of natural fibres Utilization of surplus agricultural residues for rural power supply Entrepreneurship Development for agro service centres and custom hiring of farm machinery and processing equipment

Required Competencies
Competencies: measurable or observable knowledge, skills and attitudes critical to success in a role/function Relevant competencies for NARS discipline competencies managing information and knowledge Leading and managing (people, work, change) personal effectiveness business orientation Building linkages including global linkages

Emphasis on different competencies will vary with stage of career both institutional support and individual initiative are pre-requisites

Critical career paths to leadership in ICAR

Director General Director General DDG/Director (NI) National Professor Director/JD(NI)/ADG Head of Division/PC Principal Scientist/ National Fellow Senior Scientist Scientist/Scientist Senior Scale Principal Scientist Senior Scientist Scientist/Scientist Senior Scale Refresher Course Foundation course EDP for RMP

Skill building

Pre-RMP

leaders are needed and exist at all levels no secret formula for leadership but competencies can be acquired leadership is a combination of strategic thinking and character

Refresher Course : competency framework

Discipline competencies
research methodology research prioritization literature and patent search developing winning research proposals research project management research impact assessment scientific writing and presentation science trends

Personal effectiveness
analysis, synthesis, critical thinking, problem solving

Managing information

Business orientation

Core research skills: Cognitive skills:

Awareness and Awareness of research/ use of IT tools : farming/business environment : documentation

communication Multimedia and web tools data analysis (SAS) networking managing work flow policies, scenario, perspectives, initiatives issues

Personal characteristics
self awareness & development relating to others relating to teams relating to organization professional ethics

Orientation to Organization
aligning work to mission, strategy, processes

Business development:
participatory stakeholder engagement (PRA/FET) intellectual property management

Database management
DBMS, GIS

Thank You