National Efficiencies in Publishing Scientific Papers

R. D. Shelton and P. Foland WTEC, Baltimore, MD, USA

Sponsored by NSF Grant ENG-0739505.

Updates needed
Up date with OECD 2008/1 from Cpaper master file, has interpolations etc. Add charts on paper share and change in paper share Add new chart from Cpaper on Chinas progress

Theme
Efficiency indicators in publishing allow smaller or less wealthy countries to better compete One can divide publications by population, GDP, or GERD (national R&D investment) One useful indicator is to divide publication share by GERD share For the larger economies this relative efficiency ki, has been fairly constant, which permits forecasts However, some smaller countries have high and increasing relative efficiencies

Outline
1. Examples of several efficiency indicators with rating charts 2. Interpretations of ki as an efficiency indicator 3. Which countries have the greatest relative efficiencies? 4. Which countries are most rapidly increasing their relative efficiencies? 5. Why? Can other countries do the same? TBD.

Population Efficiencies in Papers / 10,000

14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 CH SE DK FI IL NL SG CA NO AU UK NZ IS US BE AT DE SI IE EU JP OG CN

Countries with values above 5.0 shown, plus some large countries for comparison. OG is OECD Group. Fractional paper counts from NSF 2008. Population from OECD 2007/2.

GDP Efficiency in Papers / $ Billion

40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 SE IL CH FI NZ SG DK NL CA UK AU SI BE IS EU DE US NO CN AT FR ES KR OG CN

Values above 15 plus some large countries for comparison. In 2005 current dollars with PPP weights. Source OECD 2007/2.

R&D Investment Efficiency in Papers / $ 1 million

3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00

IT

TR

NZ

CZ

IR

GR

AR

AU

EU

HU

CH

OG

NO

RO

Values above 1.0 shown, plus some large countries for comparison. GERD in 2005 dollars with PPP weights. Source: OECD 2008/1.

CN

PL

PL

SK

NL

ES

BE

UK

CA

DK

US

JP

SI

Review of Shelton Model

National Publication Systems (The Black Box) Resources In

Papers Out

Multiple Linear Regression Is Used to Identify Which Inputs are Most Important

Regression Findings: In Producing Papers

Research investments are much more important than the number of researchers. Government investments are much more important than those from industry. Government investments in non-defense sectors are somewhat more important than their investment in defense. Not surprising to bibliometricians, but regression quantifies these statements. Causality cant be proven, but strong associations can be found.

More Detailed Model of Publication System (Inside the Black Box)

$ Inputs
g1
US EU Journal AT Editors

Papers
p1

Published

ROW

G (total) National Research Systems -- Fairly Independent Highly Interdependent Paper Selection

P (total)

wi = gi/G GERD share

mi = pi/P Paper share

A Simple Model for Country i mi = k iwi

mi is share of papers published (fractional basis) wi is the share of GERD for the OECD Group k i is a "constant" of proportionality; it differs by country. k i is also the efficiency of country i in producing papers per $1 million in GERD, normalized by the OECD overall efficiency. ki = mi/wi = (pi/P)/(gi/G) = (pi/gi)/(P/G) For data in a single year the equation is an identity, but it is most useful over a range of years when k i is approximately constant

Relative efficiencies are fairly constant for the major players

Relative Efficiency ki
1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 US EU27 PRC ROG

Now PRC is not so much less efficient than US, with OECD 2008/1 data.

Merit of ki as an efficiency indicator

For most large economies ki is a (fairly) constant of proportionality that allows forecast of output publication share from input GERD share Using this model, a poster paper here shows that China will likely come to challenge U.S. and EU leadership within 10 years It is also the number of papers per $1 million of R&D investment, normalized over the whole set of countries. (Overall it took about $1.3 million by an OECD country to produce one paper in the SCI in 2005. Thus ki not only measures efficiency of one country, but compares it to others, with a normalization that shows relative changes to others with time

Forecasts of National Leadership Using Shelton Model

Paper Share Forecast After 2005

40.0 35.0 30.0
Percent

25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 20 20

US EU27 PRC

Where do OECD countries stand in relative efficiencies ki?

4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 GR NZ PL SK PT HU TR SI NL ES UK IT AU AR SG CA RO CH DK BE NO CZ IE EU US JP CN

Values above 1.5 shown, plus some large countries. OECD 2007/2.

Top Countries in Relative Efficiency

Very High Efficiencies
4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Poland Slovakia New Zealand Greece

Some Nations Rapidly Becoming More Efficient

Fast Growing Ki 2001-5

3.00

Ki Relative Efficiency

2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Belgium Netherlands Turkey S. Korea

Also, Greece and Poland are both efficient and fast growing

19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05

Appendix
Original data, slides, and citations: http://itri2.org/Epaper/