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Why Reclamation of Nearshore Manila Bay Is A Very Bad Idea Part I
Why Reclamation of Nearshore Manila Bay Is A Very Bad Idea Part I
Rapid subsidence of coastal lands is enhancing the risk of flooding and high tides. 2. Storm surges are an ever-worsening threat, due in part to subsidence, but also from climate change because typhoons are increasing in strength and frequency. 3. Reclaimed coastal areas are the most susceptible to liquefaction during earthquakes.
1. Land subsidence
At Manilas South Harbor, mean sea level rose at about 2 millimeters per year from 1902 to the early 1960s. . . (Global warming)
1770 MLD in 2004 (CEST 2004) 989 MLD in 1990 (JICA 1992)
Groundwater withdrawal!
778 MLD
250 MLD
1600
1400
1200 1000
If we use more water than nature can put back (recharge), the land must sink!
10
8
989 778
800
600 400
4
2
2000
200
0
1900 1920
<20
1940
1960 Year
1980
1800
1770
12
Pumps extract water from aquifers layers of sand and gravel soaked with water. Pumping water too rapidly out of the aquifer reduces the pressure pore spaces between grains of sand and gravel. Water in the clay layers is sucked into the aquifer.
This causes the clay layers to shrink . . .
When water is removed, Volume is grains crowd somewhat together a reduced, so little more land sinks a closely. little. But sand cannot compact very much. Clay deposits contains much and can more water . . shrink much . more.
1.40
1.46
Benchmarks used for releveling (1978 vs 2000) survey (Jacob 2004) Maximum magnitude of subsidence 1.46 meters or 6.4 centimeters/year (about 2 inches/year) .
0.16
0.57 0.46
0.43
0.46
0.47
0.46
More recently, Lagmay et al. of National Institute of Geological Sciences have measured subsidence using satellite-borne Permanent Scatterer Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar
Malolos
Obando Valenzuela
+ 19.2 mm/y
Subsidence in Greater Metro Manila and vicinity from 2003-2006 from PSInSAR (precision satellite data)
0 mm/y
Kawit
Dasmarias
San PedroBian
-43.8 mm/y
Tokyo, Japan
Osaka, Japan Shanghai, China
Shanghai
Tokyo Osaka
Yun-Lin Yun-Lin, 1989-97 0.66 8.25 Hanoi Taiwan (Fishpond area!) Manila Hanoi, 1988-93 0.1-0.3 2-6 Vietnam Bangkok KAMANAVA 1991-2002 0.3-1 2.7 9.1
Bangkok, 1980-90 Thailand Jakarta, 1991-99 Indonesia 0.5-1 0.3-0.8 5-10 4-10
Jakarta
Dahil halos pantay ang lupain sa paligid ng Manila Bay, kahit maliit na pagtaas ng dagat ay mahalaga.
10 o 20 kilometros mula sa dalampasigan . . . Ang lupa ay nakaangat ng 1 metro lamang mula sa taas ng dagat.
Ang ibig sabihin nito ay kung tataas ang dagat ng isang metro lamang, susulong ang tubig-dagat ng 10 o 20 kilometro.
Lowering of coasts (land subsidence) makes them increasingly vulnerable to the attack of waves and storm surges.
2. Storm surge
23 September 2011 Super Typhoon Pedring Roxas Boulevard [stop the slide show and click the video icon below before resuming the presentation]
Roxas Boulevard