THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE, BANDWAGON EFFECT, & FEAR OF ISOLATION

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CONCEPTUAL DEVELOPMENT & PURPOSE OF STUDY

College students and their reaction to an unfamiliar environment is a broad topic that yields little scientific conclusion. The research that is going to be discussed will be based upon measurements of political ideology held by current college students. We hypothesized using the spiral of silence theory to statistically identify those faced with new social surroundings and whether the unfamiliar confrontation of opposing opinions by peers would cause an individual to react differently and subsequently modify their behaviors ranging from topic avoidance to completely succumbing to the bandwagon effect. We are looking to quantitatively measure whether or not those APPENDIX E

SPIRAL OF SILENCE, BANDWAGON EFFECT, FEAR OF ISOLATION

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SPIRAL OF SILENCE THEORY

created by Elisabeth Noelle-Nueman states:

the term spiral of silence refers to the increasing pressure people feel to conceal their views when they think they are in the minority (Noelle-Nueman 372).

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It has been suggested that if most people fear social isolation it is not isolation from some general amorphous public but only from specific groups to which they are attracted and want to belong (Lasorsa, 1991, p. 131).

The direct reaction of the students acknowledgement to the opposing opinion from peers and their decision to not involve themselves based on the fear that the groups reaction to minority opinion will inevitably cause judgment, seclusion, and isolation from your group.
Much empirical evidence supports Noelle-Neumann's belief that people may be so affected by their perception of what others thinks of a message that they feel pressured to conceal their real opinion. In the presence of a hostile climate of opinion, one may very well be hesitant to speak out, as Noelle-Neumann repeatedly has shown. (Lasorsa 132).

College students who have opposing political opinions/beliefs to the majority of APPENDIX E peers may be faced theoretically with circumstances that cause them to alter

Individuals base their perceptions of majority opinion on cues from the environment. Therefore, those opinions having the most visible (vocal) adherents may appear to an observer to be more widely held than may actually be the case. (Glynn 453) The tendency to talk among the winning faction and the tendency to be silent among the losing faction is evident both among those who are politically interested and among those who are not. (Lasorsa 134)
College students who affiliate themselves with social circles that express opposition toward their personally pre-established political constructs are more prone to assimilate, succumbing to the bandwagon effect.

Conceptual Definition: Opposition is identified as the conflict created by majority opinion of the social group members in contrast to the beliefs being measured in response. APPENDIX E

THE CONFORMITY HYPOTHESIS: William J. Gonzenbach Individuals fear isolation from the majority and thus conform to what they perceive to be the dominant opinion. (Gonzenbach 633) OPINION EXPRESSION AVOIDANCE: Andrew Hayes According to spiral of silence theory, if you are not confident that the opinion climate is friendly to your position you might feel uncomfortable providing your opinion and perhaps you would even refrain from doing so. (Hayes 788) DIRECTLY COORELATES TO HYPOTHESIS 3 Independent Variable: Fear of isolation from the peers Conceptual Definition: Fear of isolation is defined by a psychological variable representing a negative emotional state associated with the prospect of voicing ones opinion about a given topic (Neuwirth, Frederick, & Mayo, 2007, p. 452). Dependent Variable: Decision to engage in opinion expression avoidance APPENDIX E Conceptual Definition: Decision to engage in expression avoidance will be defined by

Considerations for Measurement Given the opportunity to express an opinion, people do so by factoring in expectations about likely outcomes based on (a) their past history of interactions (reected in traits), (b) the fear engendered by the controversy surrounding the issue itself, and (c) more immediate situational factors associated with the particular and unique circumstances of speaking out(Neuwirth 452) Fear of isolation is signicantly linked to avoidance strategies such as lying, making neutral comments but not revealing ones true belief, saying nothing, and general (i.e., lying and neutral comments combined) Avoidance. (Neuwirth 459) The people with whom one identifies provide the best social reality tests: The perceived, expected or believed agreement of similar others in the APPENDIX E same situation implies that our behavior is a function of the objective

 OPERATIONAL, INDEPENDENT, DEPENDANT, CONCEPTUAL

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RESEARCH QUESTION

INDEPENDENT VARIABLE: Holding opposing political ideologies

Operational Definition: Opposing political ideology will be measured by a 5 point Likert scale that will establish the participants perception of opposing political ideology

Conceptual Definition: Opposing political ideologies is when the a student

political ideology differs from their peers

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: The altered behaviors and their social

interactions.
Operational Definition: A 5 point Likert scale that will determine and illustrate the alterations in communication behaviors and social interactions.
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Conceptual Definition: An alteration in communication behavior will be

INDEPENDENT VARIABLE: Receiving support from their peers with

regard to their political ideology Operational Definition: 5 point Likert scale that will determine if the participant feels as if they receive support of their political ideology

Conceptual Definition: received support will be defined by an individual perceives

that their opinion will be favored by or consistent with the vast majority.

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: The willingness to express

Operational Definition: A 5 point Likert scale that will be measuring the willingness of the participant to enter into a conversation with conflicting opinions. Conceptual Definition: Willingness will be defined as whether the individual is
APPENDIX E willing to have or enter an open conversation expressing their true opinions.

INDEPENDENT VARIABLE: Affiliation themselves with social circles that express

oppositions toward their pre-established political construct Operational Definition: This will be measured with a 5 point Likert scale that will establish the participants perception of opposition in social arenas and will quantitatively measure their reaction to conflict. Conceptual Definition: Opposition is identified as the conflict created by majority opinion of the social group members in contrast to the beliefs being measured in response.

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Assimilate among peers, succumbing to the band wagon

effect Operational Definition: 5 point Likert scale will be used to identify levels of assimilation the student would engage in when responding to paralleling social situations that present a conflict

of antagonistic manner from peers.

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INDEPENDENT VARIABLE: Fear of isolation from the peers

Operational Definition: This will be measured by a 5 point Likert scale that illustrate when a student fears isolation. Conceptual Definition: Fear of isolation is defined by a psychological variable representing a negative emotional state associated with the prospect of voicing ones opinion about a given topic (Neuwirth, Frederick, & Mayo, 2007, p. 452).

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Decision to engage in opinion expression avoidance

Operational Definition: A 5 point Likert scale that will demonstrate the student lack of
expression of their opinion and what actions they would or would not conduct. Conceptual Definition: Decision to engage in expression avoidance will be defined by lying, making neutral comments, saying nothing, and/or general avoidance but not revealing their

true beliefs.

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MEASUREMENTS & SURVEY TYPE

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5 point Likert scale: Strongly Agree Strongly Disagree Face to face survey
o Closed ended questions

Non Probability sample:

o Volunteer and Convenience sample o Queens Students

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BASIC PEARSON CORRELATION

Association between two interval or rational variable Interval :

Likert Scale
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DEMOGRAPHICS & DATA COLLECTION

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participants changes to consent form

Made

We

added a part of the question we accidently omitted.

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Do college students who have opposing political ideologies to fellow peers alter their communication behaviors and social interactions?

INDEPENDENT

DEPENDENT

Holding opposing political ideologies

The altered behaviors and their social interactions

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Students who receive little or no support of their political ideas from their peers are less willing to express their opposing opinions to their peers.

INDEPENDENT

DEPENDENT

Receiving support from their peers with regard to their political ideology

The willingness to express

APPENDIX E

College students who affiliate themselves with social circles that express opposition toward their personally pre-established political constructs are more prone to assimilate, succumbing to the bandwagon effect INDEPENDENT DEPENDENT

Affiliation themselves with social circles that express oppositions toward their preestablished political construct

Assimilate among peers, succumbing to the band wagon effect

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A college students fear of isolation from peers is has an impact in the decision to engage in opinion expression avoidance.

INDEPENDENT
Fear of isolation from the peers

DEPENDENT
Decision to engage in opinion expression avoidance

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Queens University students. Have peers of opposing and similar political ideology However when a peer has opposing political ideology college students tend to slightly alter their communication behaviors and social interactions

College students express only a little opposition towards their peers who oppose their pre-establish political construct 50/50 on the Bandwagon effect Fear of isolation has some but little influence When confront with opposing APPENDIX Eopinions majority college

LIMITATIONS

Questionnaire Hypothesis 1:
o Lack of correlation

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEACHERS

Sample:
o Too small o Few lower classmen o Few Hayworth & Graduate

Students

Focus group Ask better questions toward bang wagon effect Pre-test on respondents evaluation of the studied subject Find a correlation with a Hypothesis 1

APPENDIX E

Glynn, C. J., Hayes, A. F., & Shanahan, J. (1997). Perceived support for one's opinions and willingness to speak out. Public Opinion Quarterly, 61(3), 452. Gonzenbach, W. J. (1992). THE CONFORMITY HYPOTHESIS: EMPIRICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE'S FIRST LINK. Journalism Quarterly, 69(3), 633-645 Hayes, A. F. (2007). Exploring the Forms of Self-Censorship: On the Spiral of Silence and the Use of Opinion Expression Avoidance Strategies. Journal Of Communication, 57(4), 785-802. doi:10.1111/j.1460-2466.2007.00368.x Lasorsa, D. L. (1991). Political Outspokenness: Factors Working Against the Spiral of Silence. Journalism Quarterly, 68(1/2), 131-140. Neuwirth, K., Frederick, E., & Mayo, C. (2007). The Spiral of Silence and Fear of Isolation. Journal Of Communication, 57(3), 450-468. doi:10.1111/j.14602466.2007.00352.x

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