Forecasting :

Petra University

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad



.

:
-1


.
-2


.
-3
.
2

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

Petra University


-1 :
.
( )
.


(. )
-2
:

) ) Time
/ )(cost
(Accuracy) .

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

Petra University

 Time horizons of
forecasting

:
-1 Short term forecasting
-2 Intermediate term forecasting
-3 Long term forecasting
.

.


.
4

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

Petra University

 Demand forecasting



.



.
Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

Petra University



:
Qualitative methods

.
Quantitative
methods Time
series analysis Causal
.methods
6

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

Petra University

Forecasting Models

Qualitative
Models

Forecasting
Techniques

Time-Series
Methods

Causal
Methods

Delphi
Methods

Moving
Average

Regression
Analysis

Jury of Executive
Opinion

Exponential
Smoothing

Multiple
Regression

Sales Force
Composite

Trend
Projections

Consumer
Market Survey

Decomposition

Petra University

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

Petra University

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

 Factors affecting demand

External factors

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

Petra University

.
Time series
( )
:
The average
.
Trend
.
:Seasonal Influence
.
:Cyclical Influence
( ) .

.
Petra University
Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad
10

Petra University

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

11

Petra University

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

12

Petra University

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

13


-1 Causal methods:
Linear regression
Multiple regression
-2 :
Simple moving average
method
Simple exponential smoothing
method
Trend line method

14

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

Petra University

 -1 - Causal methods
Linear Regression
.

.
( (Dependent variable
y

Independent variables X
:
Y=a+bX
a ,b .
15

Petra University

X=
= average (mean) of X values
n

Y=
= average (mean) of Y values
n

( X - X )(Y - Y )

b=
(X - X )
xy - n x y

b=
x - nx
2

a =Y -b X
Petra University

Dr. Abdelkareem Alzo'ubi

 : 1

.
:
310000

17

) 1000(
x

132
58

500
260

80
50
110

180
200
400
.

Petra University

(X1000)

xy

x2

500

132

66000

250000

260

58

15080

67600

180

80

14400

32400

200

50

10000

40000

400

110

44000

160000

1540

430

149480 550000

Petra University

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

x 1540

x=
=

= 308

y 430

y=
=

= 86

xy - nx y 14980 - 5 308 86 1740

b=
=
=
= 0.23
x - nx 550000 - 5 308 75680
2

a = y - bx = 86 - (0.23)(308) = 15.16

Petra University

19


:
y=a+bx= 15.16+0.23 x
310000
:

= 15 . 16 + 0 . 23 x 310 = 86 . 46
310000

86460
20

Petra University

 Coefficient of Correlation
: ) )r ( 1 ) 1-





-1
0
+1

21

nxy - xy

- x ny - y

nx

=r
Petra University

:3
2 :
xy

250000 17424

66000

132

500

3364

67600

15080

58

260

6400

32400

14400

80

180

2500

40000

10000

50

200

160000 12100

44000

110

400

550000 41788

149480

430

1540

y2

x2

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

)(X1000

Petra University

nxy - xy

2
2
2

- x ny - y

nx

=r

5 149480 - 1540 430

5 550000 - 1540 5 41788 - 430

2

85200

85200
=
= 0.89
37840024040 95377

.
23

Petra University

 -2 :
Simple exponential smoothing method


.
:
( Ft= Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1
:

Ft t
Ft-1
At-1
0 1
:
2
n+1

= a

n
24

Petra University

 :4
150
170 .
. 0.1

:
( - F + )A = F F
) = 150+0.1(170 -150
= 150+2
=152

Petra University

 :5
:
F

350
400
450
480
500

1
2
3
4
5
6

A
340
410
420
460
450
-

Petra University

-1 a

= 0.33

2
n +1

=a

2
5 +1

-2 :
)F6 = 500 + 0.33 (450-500
F6 = 484

Petra University

 :6
()
.0.3

410

450

2004

495

2005

518

2006

563

2007

584

2008
2009

.2009
28

Petra University

F2005 = F2004+ 0.3 (A 2004 - F2004)

F2005 = 410+ 0.3 )450 410 ( = 422
F2006 = 422 + 0.3 (495 - 422(= 443.9
F2007 = 443.9 + 0.3 (518- 443.9)= 466.1
F2008 = 466.1 + 0.3 (563 -466.1 )= 495.2
F2009 = 495.2 + 0.3 (584- 495.2)= 521.8

Petra University

29

 -2 :
Trend line method
( )t
(: )Y
y =a+bt
a,b Least Squares
.Method :

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

Petra University

y
y=
n

t
t = n

ty - nt y
b = t2 - n t 2
a = y - bt
Petra University

31

 :7

.2010 2011 2009

2005
100
2006
120
2007
118
125

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

2008

Petra University

2005
2006
2007

1
2
3

y
100
120
118

2008

125

10

463

Petra University

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

ty

t2

100
240

1
4
9

354
500
1194

16

30

t =

10
=
= 2 .5
4

463
=
= 115 .75
4

y=

ty - nt y 1194 - (4)(205)(115.75) 36.5

=
=
= 7.3
b=
5
30 - (4) 205
x - nt
2

a = y - bt = 115.75 - (7.3)(2.5) = 97.5

year

Petra University

= 97 . 5 + 7 . 3 t
.

t
34

35

5 = 134

= 97 . 5 + 7 . 3

2009

= 97.5 + 7.3x 6 = 141.3 @ 142

2010

= 97.5 + 7.3 x 7 = 148.6 @ 149

2011

Petra University


Forecasting Error

.

.
) Tracking signal (TS


.
.
4

36

Dr. Abdullah Abuhamad

Petra University

 Mean Absolute
(MAD(deviation
:
n

A- F
t

i =1

= MAD

:

Ft t
At t

Petra University

Running
Sum
of
Forecast
Error
RSFE
=
TS=
MAD
Mean Absolute Deviation
=

A-F
=
MAD

Petra University

38

 :8


4 = TS

.
A
Period
F
1
217
215
2
213
216
3
216
215
4
210
214
5
213
211
6
219
214
7
216
217
8
212
216
39

Petra University

 :
A-F
2
3
1
4
2
5
1
4
22

E
A
F
A-F
217
215
2
213
216
-3
216
215
1
210
214
-4
213
211
2
219
214
5
216
217
-1
212
216
-4
1716 1718 RSFE = -2
.

Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Petra University

22
=
= 2 . 75
= MAD
n
8
-2

RSFE
=
= -0.73
= TS
MAD
2.75
TS
4
41

Petra University