The Future of Information and Communication Technology

Vint Cerf

January 2009
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The Original ARPANET Dec 1969

940

#2 SRI #3 UCSB #1 UCLA Sigma 7

#4 UTAH

360

PDP 10

Internet 1999

Internet - Global Statistics 2008

542 Million Hosts

(ISC Jan 2008)

1,464 Million Users

(InternetWorldStats.com, June 30, 2008)

(approx. 3.5 B mobiles and 1 Billion PCs)

Regional Internet Statistics 6/30/08

Region Asia Europe North Am. LATAM/C Mid-East Oceania Africa TOTAL

Internet Population 578.5 Mil. 384.6 Mil. 248.2 Mil. 139.0 Mil. 41.9 Mil. 20.2 Mil. 51.0 Mil. 1,463.6 Mil.

% penetration 15.3 % 48.1 % 73.6 % 24.1 % 21.3 % 59.5 % 5.3 % 21.9 %

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Internet-enabled Devices

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Near Term Changes

IPv6 - 128 bit addresses (3.4 X 1038) DNSSEC (.se, .pr, .bg, .br, others?)
Internationalized Domain Names
Non-Latin Unicode characters

ASCII Punycode encoding xn--

Potential hazards (e.g. paypal, .py (paraguay or russia?))

New ccTLDs and gTLDs

ISO 3166-1 (ASCII 2 char) -> iCCTLDs (how many scripts?)

Rules for gTLD instantiation, dispute resolution at TLD level?

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Landscape
Failure of Moores Law (re: increasing clock speed)
Multi-core chips Off-chip I/O capacity? Parallel algorithms?

Conventional Relational DBs are not scaling Increasing need to segregate, compartment, protect data (privacy, legal protections (e.g. SEC), corporate trade secrets,) Huge data collections (sensor networks, WWW, digitized everything) Bit-Rot problem (its 3000, can you interpret 1997 PPT?)

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Inside the Cloud

Virtual Structures (file system, Big Table, Load Sharing)

Data replication (for reliability or speed)

Functionality (scheduling, MAP/REDUCE, Crawl, apps) Inter-machine, intra-cloud protocols (TCP/IP? Others?) Multiple Data Centers (replication, responsiveness)

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Between the Clouds

Inter-cloud data exchange (formats? Meta data?) Inter-cloud protocols (TCP/IP? Other?) Cloud Services? (what are they?) Analogy to pre-Internet (IBM/SNA, DEC/DECNET, HP/DS,) Inter-Cloud communication highlights key issues
How to refer to other clouds? How to refer to data in other clouds? How to make data references persistent (unlike URLs)? How to protect Clouds from various forms of attack (inside, outside)? How to establish an access control regime (inside, between clouds)? What semantics can we rely on with inter-cloud data exchange? What notion of object would be useful for inter-cloud exchange?

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Security and the Cloud

Intra-cloud security
Protection from infection, denial of service Access controls
Strong Authentication (users, hosts, processes?) Hardware assisted security? Sandboxing? Content access controls (discretionary, statutory)
Think: personnel records, health records, financial records Ephemeral access controls?

Data structures, efficient user/access control enforcement

Persistent computing (reliability)

Cloud has to work even if parts are broken Data has to be accessible even if disks fail Data transfer and storage implications

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Inter-Cloud Security
How to preserve access controls after data transfers? How to protect inter-cloud transfers in transit? What meta-data needs to accompany data transfers? Reestablishing context in a new Cloud. How to protect against inter-cloud infection? (trojan horses, viruses, worms) Clouds have virtual structures made up of hundreds of thousands or even millions of computers. How to protect the integrity of the virtual structures? The physical structures?

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Client/Cloud Interactions
How does a client interact with multiple clouds? Is the WWW metaphor sufficient? Can clients create unintended and unwanted Inter-Cloud signaling paths? Can a client initiate multi-Cloud computations? Transfers? How does collaboration work in an inter-Cloud environment? Is a personal digital assistant a cloudlet? Can it be connected to more than one Cloud at a time?

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Broadband Networking
Economics of access (rural, suburban, urban)?
Sustainable competition? Monopoly regulation? Prevention anti-competitive behaviors (vertical, horizontal) Varieties of technologies?

Impact of local conditions

Available power
Spectrum Fiber/copper Right-of-way Trained staff

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Legal Frameworks
Privacy and Law Enforcement
Law of the Net?

Domestic/international support for e-commerce

Legal value of digital signatures? Dispute resolution in international settings?

Intellectual Property Protection

Existing Copyright framework(s) New ideas (Creative Commons, Copyleft, etc.) Automatic detection of abuse (e.g. YouTube fingerprinting)

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Security
Strong Authentication (eg. Public Key Cryptography)
Users, hosts, processes Access Controls

Accounting/Audit trails
Recent MD5 Certificate attack demonstration!

Malware defenses
Browser and Operating System weaknesses and defenses

Botnet armies

End/End Cryptography
Wireless access Internet Protocol Security, Transmission Level Security, Secure Socket Layer, etc.

Domain Name System Security (DNSSEC)

Signed domain names

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Digital Libraries
Prospective acquisition Retrospective digitization User, Author, Publisher, Library rights and responsibilities Books that talk to each other (John McCarthy)

RSS feeds for publications that change?

Stable references (ie NOT URLs) and granularity?
E.g. Handle System, Digital Object Identifiers

Long-term stable repositories

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InterPlaNetary Internet

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Interplanetary Internet:InterPlaNet (IPN)

Planetary internets

Interplanetary Gateways Interplanetary Long-Haul Architecture

Licklider Transport Protocol (LTP) Bundle Protocol (RFC 5050) Delayed Binding of Identifiers Email-like behavior

(RFC 4838)

TDRSS and NASA in-space routing Delay and Disruption Tolerant Protocols
Tactical Mobile applications (DARPA)

Civilian Mobile applications (SameNet!)

Deep Impact Testing October/November 2008 Space Station Testing 2009

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End-to-end information flow across the solar system Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times Integrated communications and navigation services

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