COMFORTS OF HOME

Group 11:
PAUL JINTO JOSE | PANII NGAONII | AJINKYA LOKARE | D K DEEPAK | VAIBHAV SHARMA

Agenda
Introductio n

CW #2

CW #4

CW #1

CW #3

Business parallels

Home team advantage: is no myth

It exists Remarkable consistency Across all sports, all level Majority of time Team hosting a game wins

FACTS: 19 Sports leagues across 40 countries

Years 2002-2009 1993-2009 2001-2009 1993-2009 2003-2009 1993-2009 2000-2009 2005-2009 Years 1947-2009 1946-2009 2003-2009 International Soccer MLS (U.S.) Serie A (Italy) Central America La Liga (Spain) South America English Premier (U.K.) Europe Asia/Africa Basketball NCAA (collegiate) NBA WNBA % of games won by home team 69.1% 67.0% 65.2% 65.0% 63.6% 63.1% 61.9% 60.0% % of games won by home team 69.1% 62.7% 61.7% % won by home team last 10 years 68.8% 60.5% 61.7% % won by home team last 10 years 69.1% 65.7% 65.2% 64.3% 63.6% 63.0% 61.9% 60.0%

The Facts
Years 1877-2009 Years 1871-2009 Years 1917-2009 Years 1869-2009 1966-2009 1987-2008 Years 1903-2009 1998-2009 Cricket International cricket Rugby International Rugby Hockey NHL Football NCAA (collegiate) NFL Arena football Baseball MLB Nippon League (Japan) % of games won by home team 60.1% % of games won by home team 58.0% % won by home team last 10 years 56.9% % won by home team last 10 years 57.4%

% of games won by home team

59.0% % of games won by home team 64.1% 57.6% 56.0% % of games won by home team

% won by home team last 10 years

55.7% % won by home team last 10 years 63.0% 57.3% 56.5% % won by home team last 10 years

54.1% 53.3%

53.9% 53.6%

Basketball
70.0% 68.0% 66.0% 64.0% 62.0% 60.0% 58.0% 56.0%

% of games won by home team % won by home team last 10 years

NCAA (collegiate) 1947-2009 69.1% 68.8%

NBA 1946-2009 62.7% 60.5%

WNBA 2003-2009 61.7% 61.7%

International Soccer
70.0% 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% MLS (U.S.) 2002-2009 % of games won by home team 69.1% % won by home team last 10 years 69.1% Serie A (Italy) 1993-2009 67.0% 65.7% Central America 2001-2009 65.2% 65.2% La Liga (Spain) 1993-2009 65.0% 64.3% South America 2003-2009 63.6% 63.6%

English Premier (U.K.) 1993-2009 63.1% 63.0%

Europe 2000-2009 61.9% 61.9%

Asia/Africa 2005-2009 60.0% 60.0%

The Facts
Home field advantage for Soccer worldwide is: 62.4% HFA: Is eerily constant through time though sports have changed radically through the years Collectively home teams have won more games than road teams across - NBA, NHL and international soccer leagues in every season Home teams success rate is almost same in the last decade as it was 50 or even 100 years ago HFA is same no matter where the games are played These statistics pertain only to the regular season in each sport

The HFA SET UP: Baseball: Home team bats last how many runs to win Strategy Team WINS at Home vs On Road: NBA: 98.6% better at Home NFL, MLB: 75% better at Home Reward HFA for the best teams during playoffs

The Facts
Play for the TIE at home and the WIN on the road Teams in Identical situation: Strategize differently based on where the game is being played Considerable economic incentive for home team to WIN as often as possible Home team wins: Ticket buying fans Happy Merchandising revenue, ticket sales increases Sponsorships business and Corporations Local television networks bid high for rights fees Leagues and Executives fixing games ? -- NO Subtle measures to endow the home team with edges (legal) - Irrational if otherwise

Conventional Wisdoms
Teams win at home because of crowd support

#1

Teams win at home because the rigors of travel doom the visitors

#2

Teams win at home because they benefit form a kinder, gentle schedule

#3

#4

Teams win at home because they built to take advantage of unique home characteristics

Conventional Wisdom #1
Teams win at home because of crowd support We play better when cheered and applauded Oppositely, we perform bad when crowd booed at us with angry words Getting pelted with water bottles, batteries coins, laser etc

Our thinking: Crowd support contributes a lot

Reality: Crowd influence on the players is pretty small

Justify by taking examples of some sports: Basketball (NBA) Ice Hockey (NHL) Football (NFL) Baseball (MLB)

Conventional Wisdom #1
Teams win at home because of crowd support Basketball (NBA): Inorder to measure the impact of crowd on the player, we have to isolate the other factor such as defender, teammates, opponent players. Possible through free throws There is relation only between the player and crowd, standardized, same distance and height wherever it is played Data of last two decade: 23,000 games 75.9 % success for both home and away team So the effect of crowd significantly affecting the performance of NBA players is hard to find

Ice Hockey(NHL): Shootout is equivalent to free throws here Similar to penalty in soccer Played after the games remained tied after the last whistle 2005-09 data, 624 games: 49.4% home win only The significant home ice advantage seems to evaporate Both shooter and goalies have low success rate Similar disappearance of home field advantage in tournament soccer penalty kicks

Conventional Wisdom #1
Teams win at home because of crowd support
Football (NFL): We look at kickers or punters It turns out that the yards per punt and field goals are identical for both home and away team NFL home teams rush better at home, but away team pass better Crowd noise doesnt seems to affect the quarterbacks

Baseball(NBA): Examining the pitcher by his velocity, movement and placement Data more than 2 million pitches Do pitchers actually pitches differently at home versus away? Found that it is accurate at both within the strike zone
Home: 44.3% Away: 44.5%

Whether the crowd encourage or curse the player he is going to play equally better

Throw with the same velocity too - 87mph on average Comparing first inning and second innings also doesnt make any difference

Conventional Wisdom #2
Game in Houston In the Night Complete Exhaustion

Teams win at home because the rigors of travel DOOM the visitors Boards a Plane Post Match Take a Bus Private Airstrip Lands in San Antonio Midnight

Reach Hotel

General Behaviour of Players on Road

Late to Rotate

Sluggish Defense

Mental Errors

Overall a Step Slow

Half hearted efforts

STATISTICS PLAY THE SAME TUNE

% of GAMES WON BY HOME TEAM % Won BY HOME TEAM LAST 10 YEARS

SPORTS

YEARS

NBA NHL NFL MLB NCAA

62.7% 59.0% 57.6% 54.1% 69.1%

1946-2009 1917-2009 1966-2009 1903-2009 1947-2009

60.5% 55.7% 57.3% 53.9% 68.8%

REALITY STRIKES DIFFERENTLY

Rigors of the road exist, but they dont underpin the home court advantage
NBA
Teams from same or nearby city playing each other. Ex: Los Angeles Lakers vs Los Angeles Clippers They share the same arena Natural Time zone Both team get to enjoy sufficient sleep time

NHL
Teams not only travel long distance but also cross borders. Ex US teams that play in Canada & vice versa Need to negotiate customs and other procedures No abnormal home ice advantage

MLB
Its the similar story be it interleague play or others. Ex Chicago cubs and White Sox

The home field advantage is constant over the last century Same from 1903 to 1909 as it was from 2003 to 2009

HOME TEAM WINS without much difference

Conventional Wisdom #3
36% 14/20 Back-to-back Games Win percentage

Teams win at home because they benefit from a kinder, gentler schedule

You show up because they pay you to show up. But deep in your belly, you know you aint gonna win - Charles Barkley Home Team
Advantage of 1 or 2 games due to scheduling Not only fewer consecutive games but also fewer games within the same time span
LOW

Majority of the b-2-b games are played by road teams HIGH

Physical demands of running the court up and down

Energy or full strength to compete on consecutive days

21%
League Scheduling

NBA
All teams play more consecutive games on the road Relatively lesser for most valuable franchises in the biggest markets They play 3 games in 4 nights roughly MEDIUM BIAS

NHL
Team in NHL are brutalized by back-to-back games Typical season, road team play 6 more consecutive games than the home teams

MEDIUM BIAS

MLB
Scheduling is less of an issue 162 games is setup such that teams play in three-, four-, and five-game series Player exerting more efforts get to rest more WEAK BIAS

NFL
Scheduling is less of an issue 162 games is setup such that teams play in three-, four-, and five-game series Player exerting more efforts get to rest more NO BIAS

 Scheduling has huge role in the home team advantage It is mainly the scheduling of weak opponents Individual schools are free to negotiate their own preseason schedules Teams from 6 big football conferences the Big Ten, Pac10, SEC, ACC, Big 12, and Big East- win almost 90% Even a defeat will make small team to come on TV and in turn help in drawing potential recruiters

Incentive big schools: Increase in Alumni Contribution Incentives for small schools: 1. To raise Revenue 2. Chance to make a name for themselves 3. Elevate their profile

STRONG BIAS ( 50%)

Conventional Wisdom #4

Teams win more at home because they are built to take home characteristics advantage

Spurs beat the blazers handily in their home game playing impeccably whereas the blazers compete with no urgency or passion Parker the star despite Duncan missing due to injury Blazers win the return leg at home despite Spurs having Duncan in their lineup All this despite the standardised playing surface, climate controlled conditions Blamed more on the defeatist approach adopted by the away team

Personnel decisions depend more on Players fit into the team Cost Gelling with other players Rather than performance on the specific home turf

NFL
Climate and playing condition vary immensely Weather is seemed to give no additional advantage No difference found in performance of a warm weather team in cold conditions or when playing at home No difference found in the performance of a cold weather team at home or tropical condition The domed teams are supposed to play in controlled climate conditions and are insensitive to weather Variation may be attributed to certain other factors rather than weather

Baseball
Boston red sox have an advantage of playing at fern way park Attributed to acquaintance with caroms, angles ,effect of the wind, shallowness, depth Misconception related to home field advantage familiarity with unique optics of the home parks leads to home field advantage Tailoring the rosters to the idiosyncrasies of the ballpark Teams from hitter parks outhit their visitors by more than teams from pitcher parks do

Deception and dark arts lead to home field advantage

Boston celtics notorious for jacking up the heat in the visitors locker rooms University of iowa painted the oppositions locker rooms pink thinking that it would make them enervated Difficult to pull off considering the standardized league rules, technology and strict deterring punishment

Drawing parallels China govt. policies favors home/local companies Indian govt. gives subsidies to local firms to make it competitive Apple vs Samsung Pre liberalization - Closed market in India. Only Indian companies could enter sectors such as defense/railways etc

Thank you