U.S.

EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program

Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers

and Consequences GEOMORPHOLOGY
Jim Pizzuto and students University of Delaware

Outline
EPA STAR Water & Watersheds project goals and some selected results EPA NCEA/GCRP Effects of Jointly Changing Climate and Land Use 1: This Project goals and proposed products

EPA STAR Water & Watersheds project goals

To develop and calibrate a model that forecasts, conditional on land use changes through time, stream morphology and sediment characteristics at decadal time scales throughout a watershed. To collect observations at a fine spatial grain within watersheds to determine how spatial pattern and history of watershed development influence stream morphology

A Watershed Scale Geomorphic Model for a Network of Gravel-bed Rivers

FORECAST changes in bed elevation (slope), depth, width, bed mobility, the grain size distribution of the bed and bank sediment throughout a watershed over decadal timescales.

COMPONENTS OF A WATERSHED SCALE RIVER EVOLUTION MODEL

Governing Equations (sub-models that represent important processes) Boundary Conditions (sediment flux boundary condition a focus for this project (EPA
NCEA/GCRP Effects of Jointly Changing Climate and Land Use)

Initial Conditions Spatial Discretization Temporal Discretization

Submodels of Important Processes

The hydraulic sub-model will be used to predict water depth and from discharge and channel characteristics. The bedload transport sub-model will quantify bedload transport rates for each grain size fraction. The sediment continuity sub-model will employ a modified Exner equation for mixtures of sand and gravel to predict changes in bed elevation. The washload sub-model will route suspended silt and clay through channel networks, accounting for deposition on the floodplain, bed, and banks, and for erosion from the bed and banks. The channel cross-section submodel will account for bank erosion and deposition and lateral channel migration.

Some Preliminary Modeling Results A Test Case Good Hope Tributary of Paint Branch, Maryland
Try to reproduce changes in width and extent of channel migration 1951-1996. Try to compute measured sediment budget.

Estimate Changes in Morphology, 1952-1996 Using Regression Equations Based on Land Use
Horizontal Distance (meters)
0 0 0.5
Good Hope Tributary - 1998 Hollywood Tributary - 1998 Good Hope Tributary - 1952

10

15

20

Depth (meters)

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

Model Computations of Width versus Time

FIELD DATA
Measurements of Channel Morphology, Sediment Characteristics, Post-Settlement Allluviation at 62 sites Needed to determine initial conditions for forecasting channel change, model calibration, etc.

Field Sites

Cross Sectional Geometry Survey: an example

Paint Branch Site 6 (19)

0 -0.5

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-1

-1.5

Depth

-2

Width determined from location of post settlement paleosol paleosol depth

-2.5

-3

-3.5 Width 6/15/01 1/26/96

Slope is Determined from Longitudinal Profiles at Each Site

Other activities
Mapping thickness of overbank sedimentation post European settlement Evaluating sediment budgets Historical observations of channel morphology Calibrating bedload transport functions using bucket samplers

Grain Size Data: an example

PB6 100 80
%

60 40 20 0 1 10 D 2001 pointcount+weight 1996 pointcount 2001 pointcount 100 1000

EPA NCEA/GCRP Effects of Jointly Changing Climate and Land Use 1: This Project goals and products

Produce preliminary model predictions showing interactions between climate/land use change on a typical Maryland Piedmont watershed . Develop a convincing methodology for forecasting sediment delivery to 1st order streams

Preliminary Model Predictions for a Typical Watershed

Clarify key processes and parameters that are either likely to be particularly important or where our understanding is insufficient Produce some generalized "scenario" forecasts that will provide the basis for subsequent detailed predictions of the effects of climate change.

Some Questions to Answer

1) What are the nature and magnitudes of geomorphic changes to stream channels that are likely to occur under reasonable scenarios of land use and climate changes in the watershed? 2) What parameters in the model have the strongest influence on forecasted changes? 3) How does uncertainty in model parameters influence uncertainty in model forecasts? 4) Do specific spatial patterns of development either amplify or dampen the effects of climate changes?

Sediment Supply to First-order Streams

The upstream boundary condition needed to route sediment through a network of stream channels. No established method exists for urban/suburban watersheds

Approach
Literature review of relevant studies on sediment supply in urban/suburban piedmont watersheds. Analysis of existing literature and data to suggest the most significant sources and how these sources are likely to change under different climate scenarios. Evaluate current models for predicting changes in sediment supply in the context of changing climate and land use.

The Product
Identify HOW to model changes in sediment supply, Determine what field data are needed to calibrate realistic models for sediment production under changing land uses and climate.

Existing Data
Historical observations Ongoing data collection (many sources) New initiatives just being established

Historical Observations (Yorke and Herb, 1978)

Historical Observations
Regression equations relating sediment yield to % of the basin under construction (Yorke and Herb, 1978) % construction only explains 50% of variance.

Combine Regression Equations with Historical GIS data

Fraction of the Watershed Under Construction, 1952-1998
0.035 0.03

0.025

Fraction Under Construction

0.02

0.015

0.01

0.005

19 52 19 54 19 56 19 58 19 60 19 62 19 64 19 66 19 68 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98
Year

Montgomery County Water Quality Monitoring Data (and similar efforts elsewhere)

Evaluate Existing Strategies

RUSLE, WEPP, etc. Chesapeake Bay Program HSPF based model Ongoing and new initiatives (Johns Hopkins/State of MD Patuxent Watershed study, Gwynns Falls Watershed urban LTER, etc.)

SUMMARY
EPA STAR Water & Watersheds project will produce a watershed scale geomorphic model to forecast decadal timescale changes in stream morphology caused by landuse changes. EPA NCEA/GCRP Effects of Jointly Changing Climate and Land Use 1 project will result in
a proposed approach for predicting upland sediment production to first-order streams. scenario forecasts of geomorphic changes caused by changing land use AND climate for a single watershed.