World Population Growth Through History

Billions
12 11 10 9 Old Stone 7 Age 8 6 5 4 3 1950 2 1 Black Death The Plague 1900 1800 1975 Bronze Age Iron Age Modern Age Middle Ages

2100

New Stone Age

2000

Future

1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
2006 Population Reference Bureau

World Population Growth, in Billions

Number of years to add each billion (year)

First Billion Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth

All of Human History 130 (1930) 30 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 14 (2027) 21 (2048)

(1800)

Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
2006 Population Reference Bureau

Annual Increase in World Population

Millions

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
2006 Population Reference Bureau

Growth in More, Less Developed Countries

Billions

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950 1970
More Developed Regions Less Developed Regions

1990

2010

2030

2050

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
2006 Population Reference Bureau

Trends in Population Growth Worldwide

Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods
90 80 80 70 60 50
Millions

87

83

2 79 76 76 75 1.8 72 1.6 1.4 1.2 1

Percent increase per year

40 30 20 10 0 19801985 19851990 19901995 19952000 20002005 20052010 20102015 20152020

0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Net population added per year

Annual population growth rate

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
2006 Population Reference Bureau

Notes on Trends in Population Growth Worldwide

This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year. Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the worlds population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year). From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers and grandmothers generations.

2006 Population Reference Bureau

World Population Clock

2005

Natural Increase per Year Day Minute

World 80,794,218 221,354 154

More Developed Countries 1,234,907 3,383 2

Less Developed Countries 79,559,311 217,971 151

Less Developed Countries (less China) 71,906,587 197,004 137

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

2006 Population Reference Bureau

Projected Population Change, by Country

Percent Population Change, 2005-2050

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

2006 Population Reference Bureau

The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Birth rate Natural increase

Death rate

Time

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
2006 Population Reference Bureau

Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Birth rate Death rate

Natural Increase

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
2006 Population Reference Bureau

Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow. Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline.

2006 Population Reference Bureau

Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region

Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years
77 72 65 49 67 80 82 76 65 75

Africa

Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

2000-2005

More Developed Regions

World

2045-2050

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
2006 Population Reference Bureau

Notes on Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region

In 2045-2050, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years up ten years from today. Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years. Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa.

2006 Population Reference Bureau

Trends in Urbanization, by Region

Urban Population
Percent
76 85 74 82

61 54 47 42 37 29 15 17 37 55 53

World

Africa

Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

2030

More Developed Regions

1950

2000

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
2006 Population Reference Bureau

Notes on Trends in Urbanization, by Region

Currently, world regions differ greatly in their levels of urbanization. In more developed regions and in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 70 percent of the population is urban, whereas in Africa and Asia, under 40 percent of the population is urban. By 2030, however, the urban proportion of these two regions will exceed 50 percent. By 2030, roughly 60 percent of the worlds population will be living in urban areas.

2006 Population Reference Bureau

Largest Cities, Worldwide

Millions
1950 2000 2015
36

34

21 17 11 8 12 18

23

London Tokyo

New York

Sao Mexico Tokyo Paulo City

Delhi Mumbai Tokyo (Bombay)

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
2006 Population Reference Bureau

Notes on Largest Cities, Worldwide

The largest cities in the world are growing rapidly, and they are shifting from the more developed regions to the less developed regions. In 1950 the three largest cities were in more developed countries; by 2000, only Tokyo remained in the top three. In 1950, New York was the largest city in the world, with a population of about 12 million. By 2015, the largest city worldwide is projected to be Tokyo, with triple this population size: 36 million.

2006 Population Reference Bureau

Age Distribution of the Worlds Population

Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005
Millions

Less Developed Regions Age

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

More Developed Regions

Male

Female

Male

Female

300 200 100

100 200 300

300

100

100

300

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
2006 Population Reference Bureau

Notes on Age Distribution of the Worlds Population

Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger populations than more developed countries. Almost one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In contrast, less than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15. Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regionsthe age cohort that will soon become the worlds newest group of parents. Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of childbearing in recent decades.

2006 Population Reference Bureau

Trends in Aging, by World Region

Population Ages 65 and Older
Percent

21

14 11 7 3 4 6 10 6 10

World

Africa

Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

More Developed Regions

2000

2025

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
2006 Population Reference Bureau

Notes on Trends in Aging, by World Region

By 2025, over 20 percent of the population in more developed regions will be ages 65 and older. By 2025, one-tenth of the worlds population will be over age 65. Asia will see the proportion of its elderly population almost double, from about 6 percent in 2000 to 10 percent in 2025. In absolute terms, this represents a stark increase in just 25 years: from about 216 million to about 480 million older people.

2006 Population Reference Bureau

Women and Aging

Projected World Population, by Sex, at Specified Age Groups, 2025
Percent

50

46

37

50

54

63

All Ages

Ages 60+
Women Men

Ages 80+

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects:The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
2006 Population Reference Bureau

Notes on Women and Aging

The figure above depicts what demographers refer to as the feminization of aging. Although women make up half of world population, by the end of the next quarter century, they will account for more than half (54 percent) of people ages 60 and older, and 63 percent of very old people (80 and older).

2006 Population Reference Bureau

Adult Literacy, by Region

Literacy Rates, by Sex, 2000-2004
Percent

87 77 70 53

89

91 86 73 77

55

World

Sub-Saharan Latin America Africa and the Caribbean

Female Male

Asia

Arab States

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics: accessed online at www.uis.unesco.org/TEMPLATE/html/Exceltables/education/Literacy_Regional_April2006.xls on May 21, 2006.
2006 Population Reference Bureau

Notes on Adult Literacy, by Region

Nearly all men and women in more developed regions can read and write. However, literacy rates are lower in the less developed regions. Womens literacy rates in particular vary significantly by region: from 53 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, to 73 percent in Asia, to 89 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean. Overall, more men than women are literate. This is especially striking in the Arab states, where more than three-fourths of men but about half of all women are literate.

2006 Population Reference Bureau