CONTENTS

Basic terminology - hazard, risk, vulnerability and disaster Factors contributing to seismic disaster mitigation Hazard assessment in context of the Oct 08 earthquake

Vulnerability of structures in context of the Oct 08

earthquake

Recommendations for seismic disaster mitigation in Pakistan

Hazard, Risk, Vulnerability and Disaster ?

How these terms are interconnected

Hazard: Hazard is any substance, phenomenon or situation which has the potential to cause disruption or damage to people, their property or their services and their environment.
3

Risk: Risk is the probability that negative consequences may arise when hazards interact with vulnerable area, people, property, environment. 4

Disaster

Disaster: An event causing widespread human or material losses which exceed the availability of the affectedcommunity to cope using its own resources.

Vulnerability:

Vulnerability is a concept which describes the factors or constraints of an economic, social, physical or geographically nature, which reduce the availability to prepare for and cope with impact of hazards
6

IMPLICATIONS OF DISASTERS

A single disaster can wipe

out annual GDP of a country.

Losses from the Oct 08

earthquake

80,000 dead 200,00 injured 4 million homeless Economic losses more than USD 5 billion

Disaster Reduction is a MUST for Sustainable Development

DISASTER MITIGATION
Pre-earthquake scenario

Realistic hazard assessment Reducing vulnerability through

Seismic structures.

resistant

design

of

Implementation of code, inspection

and monitoring mechanism.

Post-earthquake scenario

Emergency
planning

preparedness

and

SEISMIC HAZARD ZONING OF PAKISTAN AND THE OCT 08 EARTHQUAKE

Geophysical center Quetta, Met deptt. of Pakistan

REALISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT

Realistic seismic hazard assessment is crucial because placing a low-seismicity region in a high hazard zone will require construction hazard zone of will costly allow structures construction thereby of making them weaker uneconomical. Similarly, placing a high-seismicity region in a low relatively structures thereby making them vulnerable to collapse during an

earthquake.

10

SEISMIC VULNERABILITY
Low Seismic capacity of buildings due to low quality
of material, improper design and construction; buildings constructed on loose soil, or constructed in areas prone to liquefaction and land slides etc. will make the structures during an earthquake.

vulnerable

to collapse

11

Seismic vulnerability with respect to the Oct 08, earthquake

12

STONE MASONRY BUILDINGS CONSTITUTE AROUND 40% OF THE TOTAL BUILDING STOCK. (20% OF IT IN CITIES AND 80% IN VILLAGES). APPROX 95 % OF BUILDINGS EITHER COMPLETELY COLLAPSED OR GOT SEVERELY DAMAGED.

Undressed stone masonry

Dressed stone masonry

13

Smooth round stones in mud mortar, or low quality cs mortars, no bond beams, no proper connections

30% OF THE TOTAL BUILDING STOCK (100% OF IT IN CITIES, NEGLIGIBLE IN VILLAGES) WAS UN-REINFORCED CEMENT CONCRETE BLOCK MASONRY HAVING RC ROOF SLAB, OUT OF WHICH APPROX 50% EITHER COLLAPSED OR GOT SEVERELY DAMAGED.

Low quality concrete blocks laid in mud mortar, or low quality cs mortars, no bond beams, no proper connections

14

TOTAL STOCK OF BRICK MASONRY BUILDING CONSTITUTES AROUND

20%, (100 % IN CITIES, NEGLIGIBLE IN VILLAGES), OUT OF WHICH LESS

THAN 5% COLLAPSED AND AROUND 15% GOT SEVERELY DAMAGED. BY AND LARGE THE BRICK MASONRY HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL.

Brick masonry building Muzafarabad

15

Strong-beam weak-column

16

Incredible

17

Improper lateral reinforcement

18

19

Water tanks collapse occurred as far as 200 km from the epicenter

20

Original position of deck 1 meter displacement

Life lines---Bridges

21

Pipe lines

transmission lines
22

Massive land sliding washed out entire villages

23

ISSUES CONTRIBUTING TOWARDS SEISMIC VULNERABILITY

None-existence of seismic design guidelines and building codes. site specific ground characteristics for seismic design. scientifically determined indigenous material properties. trained professionals for carrying out construction activities in seismic prone areas awareness of general public for realizing the seismic risk. Implementing/regulating and inspection mechanism for construction monitoring
24

EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND PLANNING

In the post-earthquake quantum of disaster enormously due to lack emergency preparedness strategies.

scenario the can increase of effective and planning

25

MEASURES TO BE TAKEN TO AVOID DISASTERS IN FUTURE ?

26

SHORT TERM MEASURES

Enactment of a law for strict enforcement of these recommendations is also required.

Training should be imparted to the contractors, masons, construction supervisors and local government hierarchy at the local Govt level for

effective reconstruction and rehabilitation activities.

The design and construction of educational institutions, hospitals and other important government buildings should be given special attention.

27

SHORT TERM MEASURES--

Construction of new buildings in the areas prone to landsliding and liquefaction should be avoided.

Repair, strengthening and /or retrofitting of existing buildings deficient in seismic capacity is also vital.

28

LONG TERM MEASURES

Development of seismic hazard maps , liquefaction and landslide maps, micro zoning for highly seismic prone regions etc. Development of seismic code for the country Seismic risk assessment for various categories of buildings and engineering structures.

Structural assessment of important buildings such as dams, long span bridges, educational institutions, hospitals, secretariat etc and their strengthening, if required.
29

LONG TERM MEASURES (CONTD)

Technology development for low cost base isolation and damper systems for brittle structures.

Development of repair and strengthening techniques for seismically distressed local structural systems.

Development of disaster mitigation methodologies. Seismic risk assessment for sustainability of life lines including, highways, railways, Gas, Sewerage and Water pipe lines and electricity transmission lines etc.

30

PROVERB BY JAPANESE PHYSICS SCIENTIST DR. TORAHIKO

Natural disasters will hit us by the time people have forgotten about it

31

Thanks
32