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Reliability Calculations: What, Why, When & How Do We Benefit From Them?
Reliability Calculations: What, Why, When & How Do We Benefit From Them?
Reliability Calculations
What, Why, When & How do we benefit from them?
Customer request
Design goal Hard Requirement
Stress Analysis
Establishes the presence of a safety margin
Good engineering practice Enhances system life Provides input data for Reliability Prediction
Describes operating condition as a percentage of rating
Methodology
Use accepted standards
Model failure rates of components Analyze system Calculate the system predicted failure rate or MTBF
Bellcore (Telcordia)
Telecommunications Industry standard
Seems to have supplanted French CNET and British Telcom standards Models patterned after MIL-HDBK-217, but simplified Provides multiple quality levels Can incorporate current laboratory test data Can incorporate current field performance data
Other Standards
Auto Industry
Resources
Software packages cover both MIL-HDBK-217 and Bellcore models
RELEX is widely available
Reliability Predictions
The first cut is made with little analysis to get a rough idea where the design is relative to the desired outcome
Better numbers come from better insight into the design Factors to be considered include Duty Cycle and refined Thermal and Stress Analyses
FMEA or FMECA
Design FMEA
FMEA is a bottoms up method of analyzing and improving a design
Heavily used by US automotive industry Chrysler, Ford, GM require this type of analysis Many different company and industry standards Most widely used is the AIAG (Automotive Industry Action Group) standard Analytic Process Consider each component or functional block and how it can fail (Failure Modes) Determine the Effect of each failure mode, and the severity on system function Determine the likelihood of occurrence and of detecting the failure. Calculate the Risk Priority Number, or RPN, using the formula as follows:
RPN = Severity x Occurrence x Detection
Consider corrective actions (may reduce severity of occurrence, or increase probably of detection) Start with the higher RPN values (most severe problems) and work down Recalculate RPN after the corrective actions have been determined, the aim is to minimize RPN
FMECA
A FMECA is similar to a FMEA,
Criticality is computed in place of RPN . FMECAs are used extensively in military, aerospace and medical equipment fields, for both design and process reliability analysis. MIL-HDBK-1629 is a widely accepted standard for FMECAs.
When
Stress Analysis
Prior to release of design to production Prior to implementation of design changes
Process FMEA
During process design Prior to implementing new or updated processes
Famous Flubs
BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit)
FMEA not performed or inadequate
Oscillator Crystal Failure- Open. Oscillator Frequency went up
Train speed increased rapidly Train overshot last stop Train rammed barrier at high speed Very serious accident
Reliability Calculations
Summary
What: Analysis Toolkit Why: Product Improvement Reduced Cost When: Early for Design Feedback Prior to Completion to Validate Goals Benefit: Reduced Field Failures Reduced Warranty Costs Better Customer Relations