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800AM - Ajit Dayal - Agora Equitymaster July 2009
800AM - Ajit Dayal - Agora Equitymaster July 2009
800AM - Ajit Dayal - Agora Equitymaster July 2009
BSE-30 TRI
600 500 400 300 200
Base = 100
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
Jun-93
Jun-94
Jun-95
Jun-96
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Souce: Bloomberg
Jun-09
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Feb-01
Dec-96
Mar-03
May-07
Jan-99
Nov-94
Apr-05
Jun-09
Souce: Bloomberg
Feb-92
Mar-93
May-95
Feb-05
Oct-00
Dec-02
Mar-06
May-08
Jan-91
Jun-96
Aug-98
Jan-04
Sep-99
Apr-94
Nov-01
Apr-07
Jun-09
Jul-97
Souce: Bloomberg
% share global % change % share global GDP, 2005 2020 market cap, 2005
USA
Euro zone Japan China India
33% 31%
23% 22% 16% 13% 6% 10% 3% 5%
-5%
-5% -18% +70% +70%
56%
25% 10% 2% < 1%
10,923
8,175 3,568 6,446 3,078
Source: Goldman Sachs, & MSCI
Their strengths
Country comparison Area (million sq km) Population (millions) GDP in CY 2008 (nominal, US$ bn) Fx Reserves (US$ bn) Gold holdings (US$ bn) Savings/GDP (%)
Their weakness
Country comparison Area (million sq km) Population (millions) GDP/capita (US$) Govt. education spend/capita (US$) Govt. health spend/capita (US$) Govt pension funds/capita (US$) Brazil 8.5 190 7,840 321 150 n.a. China 9.6 1,328 3,258 4 40 100 India 3.3 1,154 992 16 40 80 Russia 17.0 142 9,382 n.a. 12 n.a.
10
11
8.6
6.2 average
6.1 5.6 5.7 5.4 6.3 6.5 5.7 6.5 est
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14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
Apr-79
Annualized return
INR +16.99%
USD +10.40%
Souce: Bloomberg
Jun-09
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Total voters Who voted Poll stations Seats Candidates Coalition govt led by
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Agency
ADB IMF OECD World Bank Sell-side brokers CMIE, India
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As a % of GDP
Private Consumption
India
China Indonesia Thailand Malaysia
67
46 64 56 42
18
40 40 60 114
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Period CY 2003 CY 2004 CY 2005 CY 2006 CY 2007 CY 2008 Cumulative 2009 YTD 2009
Total (US$ m) 7,033 8,697 13,985 11,435 20,357 -11,099 50,407 +4,524
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(all in USD)
India BSE-30 TRI Brazil - Bovespa China - SHCOMP Russia - RTSI$ MSCI EM Free S&P 500 MSCI World Berkshire Hathaway Gold Oil
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(all in USD) India BSE-30 TRI Brazil - Bovespa China - SHCOMP Russia - RTSI$ MSCI EM Free S&P 500 MSCI World Berkshire Hathaway Gold Oil
% change YTD in CY 2009 +53.2% +63.1% +64.2% +58.7% +35.7% +3.2% +9.4% -6.8% +5.1% +56.7%
Source: Bloomberg: As on June 30, 2009
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NASDAQ or BRIC
BRIC is not a theme it is a reality
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Your
profit
underlying economic
earnings
+
volatile
capital flows
Equitymaster Agora India
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