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Overview Retail Industry
Overview Retail Industry
Overview Retail Industry
work
Dana Telsey
Senior Managing Director
and Head of Retail Group
Bear, Stearns & Co., Inc.
OVERVIEW OF THE RETAIL
INDUSTRY
March 22, 2004
Dana L. Telsey
Senior Managing Director Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.
●
212-272-6052, dtelsey@bear.com
Bear Stearns does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Please read the important disclosure and certification information at the end of this report.
Dana L. Telsey (212) 272-6052
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
2004 Retail Outlook 3
Retail Industry Overview 6
The Seasons of Retailing 9
Ingredients of Retail Success 11
Demographics 13
The Retail Landscape 15
Retail Formats 18
Is Mass Marketing Dead? 24
Specialty Apparel 27
Department Stores/Discounters 30
Luxury Goods 33
Generation Y Retailers 37
Hard Lines 45
Drug Stores/Grocery Stores/Bookstores 48
2004 OUTLOOK
The economy should remain strong.
BSC Chief Market Economist John Ryding expects GDP growth of 5.1% in
1Q04 and 4.7% in calendar 2004, fueled by both stronger business
investment and less robust, but still solid consumer spending.
High-end retailers showing strength, while lower-end retailers are waiting for wallets to open.
High-end retailers demonstrated notable sales gains as the economy
and stock market accelerated.
The prospects for lower-end retailers are more tied to the labor market,
which is recovering slower than the equity market. This suggests that
discounters and mass merchants could see upside with increases in jobs
data.
2004 OUTLOOK
Retailers continue to plan lean inventory levels.
Our channel checks indicate that U.S. retailers are squarely focused on
remaining “lean and mean,” which bodes well for margins.
Retailers expected to announce firm 2004 financial/operating objectives upon release of 4Q03 EPS.
Budgets for remodeling of existing and opening of new stores and
investments in systems are underway.
Retailers have excess cash and little debt.
Retail stocks could see gains in 1Q04, if historical trading patterns persist.
On average, the BSC Retail Composite has increased approximately 6.0%
and 8.2% in 1Q and 4Q since 1990; while, the S&P 500 has only risen 1.8%
and 6.8% in 1Q and 4Q, respectively. During 2Q and 3Q, the BSC Retail
Composite on average has gained 2.6% and lost 3.9%, compared to the S&P
500, which has increased 3.4% and has decreased 2.4%, respectively.
7
What Will Drive the Top Line in 2004? A Lucky Handful Can Count on Square Footage Growth.
In an environment where same-store sales have been inconsistent, retailers who have room for unit
expansion have an edge in realizing revenue growth (but watch those sales productivity levels!).
Square footage growth or unit expansion is typically a more reliable predictor of top-line growth, as store
openings are planned up to a year in advance.
Specialty Stores: We currently forecast 2004 square footage growth as follows: ANN 12%, ROST 12%, TJX
8%, TLB 7%. We anticipate essentially flat square footage comparisons at both GPS and LTD in 2004.
Department Stores/Discounters: We currently forecast 2004 square footage growth as follows: KSS
17.3%, WMT 8.4%, COST 6.0%, TGT 7.2%.
Hard Lines: We currently forecast 2004 square footage growth of 11%, 9%, and 9% at BBBY, HD, and
WSM, respectively.
Summer Season
Typically runs from around May through July, covering the second quarter for
retailers.
Generally a low-traffic time of year, with a high level of promotional activity.
Back-to-School/Fall Season
August and September are the most important months.
One of the most critical for retailers, as a significant portion of business is
generated during this period.
Provides retailers with a key opportunity to increase their share of the teen,
‘tween, and children’s markets.
Holiday Season
Begins at the end of October and carries through the fourth quarter ending in
January of the following year.
Encompasses Christmas, Halloween, and Hanukkah.
Typically a “make it or break it” time for retailers.
INGREDIENTS OF
INGREDIENTS OFRETAIL
RETAILSUCCESS
SUCCESS
Consistent Brand Image.
The ability to create a distinct brand identity and to support that image.
Merchandising Visionaries.
Their creative acumen provides their companies with a significant
competitive advantage.
An Eye for the Fashion of the Time.
Successful retailers are able to quickly translate social trends into
product trends.
Vertical Integration.
Provides more margin cushion in tough economic cycles and heavy
promotional pricing periods.
Speed to Market.
Shorter product cycles are the best way to keep pace with constantly-
changing trends.
Focus on Customer Service.
Training sales associates, in areas such as in-store experience, product
knowledge and client relationship management, can add intangible,
long-term value to the business.
Introduction of New Concepts.
Many retailers have developed new platforms for growth by extending
their brand into new product categories or new customer sub-segments.
DEMOGRAPHICS
78.0 26.0%
60.0
Post-Teen(age20-25) Population Matures (age>55) Population
Male 10,154,310 Male 28,159,380
58.0 23.0%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Female 9,553,177 Female 35,286,780
Post-Teen Total 19,707,487 Matures Total 63,446,160
Gen Y Pop. (ages 8-25) Gen Y Pop (as % of Total)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. estimates.
Limited Brands - Dominant position in the intimate apparel market with Victoria's Secret. Turning around Bath & Body Works: a high margin business with a vast 1,600 store distribution network.
The TJX Companies, Inc. - Leading off-price apparel retailer with a large and sophisticated buying organization: competitive advantage.
Tiffany & Co. – The jewelry market is highly fragmented, and we believe that branded jewelers are very well positioned to take share from local, independent jewelers.
Federat ed Department Stores, Inc. - Differentiated merchandise assortment due to successful private brand initiatives.
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – Wal-Mart will continue to dominate the retailing landscape through its everyday low price strategy whic h is supported by its world-class distribution and systems network.
Hard Lines
Best Buy Co., Inc. - Customer centricity initiative focused on better understanding the company's best customers and meeting their total hom e entertainment needs.
Bed Bat h & Beyond Inc. - Decentralized model allows store managers to tailor assortm ents to local tastes and demands, driving traffic.
Lowe's Companies, Inc. - Core c ompetency and competitive advantage remain its ongoing departmental resets and line reviews to keep the stores looking fresh and the assortment relevant, even in segments that have exhibited strong growth, suc h as applianc es.
PETCO Animal Supplies, Inc. – Strong customer loyalty program allows company to "know its customer"; continuous investment in store base to maintain fresh and relevant shopping experience.
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. – WSM’s key competitive advantage is the development and operation of distinguished and well-recognized, vertically integrated brands that are sold through multiple distribution channels (retail, c atalog, and internet).
RETAIL FORMATS
Online/Multi-channel formats.
Amazon.com
Coach, Inc.
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Ebay
Gap Inc.
Competitive differentiation.
Does the consumer recognize the retailer?
Retailers are trying new and innovative ways to reach and keep prospective customers!
Is the store itself an advertisement?
Contests and sweepstakes.
TV specials devoted to product.
Customer loyalty/bounce-back programs.
Shipping discounts on on-line purchases.
Targeted emails, but sent infrequently so as not to irritate the recipient to avoid higher
unsubscribe rates.
Discount coupons and gift certificates in direct mailing vs. catalogs with no additional
enticement.
Gen Y retailers are sponsoring music and sporting goods events as a means of reaching out to
their customers.
5 .0 % 6 .0 % 4 .9 %
4 .1 % 4 .0 % 5 .0 % 3 .8 % 3 .8 %
3 .7 %
4 .0 % 4 .0 %
3 .0 % 2 .2 %
2 .7 % 2 .0 % 1 .2 % 1 .1 % 1 .0 %
3 .0 %
1 .0 %
2 .0 % 0 .0 %
Off-Price
1 .0 %
Broadlines
Electronics
Consumer
Furnishings
Discounters
Superstores
Improvement
Home
Office
Home
0 .0 %
D e p t. S to r e s Lux ury A d u lt R e ta ile r s G e n Y
A v e r a g e = 3 .6 % A ve ra g e = 2 .6 %
Specialty Apparel
Department Stores/Discounters
DISCOUNTERS OUTLOOK
Discounters are benefiting from the migration to “Off-the-Mall” formats.
Topline growth through square footage expansion and positive same-store sales.
DISCOUNTERS ISSUES
A shallow jobs recovery could hurt middle to lower income households ability to spend.
Competition may drive gross margins down, while healthcare costs continue to escalate.
Luxury Goods
2003LuxuryGoods Industry
J ewelry &
Sales (in % ofIndustry Home
Watches
Accessories
Categories billions) Sales 7%
5%
Clothing $24.6 28% Wine & Clothing
28%
Fragrances &Cosmetics 21.1 24% Champagne
15%
Shoes &Leather Goods 18.5 21%
Wine &Champagne 13.2 15% Fragrances &
Jewelry &Watches 6.2 7% Shoes & Leather Cosmetics
Goods 24%
Home Accessories 4.4 5% 21%
Total Industry $88.0 100%
The recent outperformance of luxury goods stocks likely reflects their early-cycle characteristics.
Enviable characteristics.
Special Services.
Custom-Made Merchandise.
Designer Hotels.
Generation Y Retailers
A growing population with spending power and an appetite for cool brands and styles.
GEN Y ISSUES
More concepts and stores make oversaturation a growing concern.
Key players faced an ongoing trend of negative comparable store sales declines in 2003…
Sales trends are now headed north in 2004 – will it last?
Tween (% of Gen Y)
Overview of the Retail Industry
Female (% of tween)
Dana L. Telsey (212) 272-6052
Specialty apparel stores earn high marks for their cool in-store experience and brand status.
According to Cotton Inc.’s Lifestyle Monitor, most teen females buy clothes from specialty stores.
‘Tween Girls.
The ‘tween girl represents a lucrative opportunity for
retailers.
Teen Girls.
Most teen girls are trend savvy – it is not just the clothes and
accessories, but the whole look that the teen girl aspires to
define.
Post-Teen/College Girls.
According to STS Market Research, females (ages 20 to 24)
spent $3.3B in 2003 on “casual sportswear” (including most
apparel, excluding outerwear, innerwear, socks, shoes and
accessories).
While guys tend to prioritize fashion to a lesser degree than girls, fashion and the ‘right look’ is still
important to them.
Styles that were once considered too trendy for guys – like low rise jeans – have
made their way into the male Gen Yer’s wardrobe.
Hard Lines
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Consumer Electronics:
Consumer demand for digital products have led to increased sales
momentum.
Home Furnishings:
Consumers continue to invest in their homes.
Home Improvement:
Housing market activity remains at high levels, but the pace of mortgage
refinancing has slowed considerably this year.
Office Superstores:
The office superstores made a conscious decision over a year ago to focus
more on the business customer, and less on the average individual
consumer. Merchandise assortments have been shifted appropriately.
Video Retailers:
We anticipate movie rentals will be down mid-to-high single digits vs. the
year-earlier period, which benefited from blockbuster titles such as Sweet
Home Alabama and My Big Fat Greek Wedding.
Drug Stores/Grocery
Stores/Bookstores
2002 sales for all traditional drug stores (chain & independents) were $153.0 billion and are estimated at $165.0 billion for 2003.
In 2003, 8.90% of all single copy magazine purchases were sold at drug stores.
According to Book Industry Trends 2003, Domestic Consumer expenditures on all books are expected to reach $43 billion by the year 2007.
Overall preliminary 2003 bookstore retail sales reached $16.2B, up 5.6% from $15.8B in ’02.
In 2003, 12.43% of all single copy magazine purchases were sold at bookstores.
Grocery stores ranked among the largest industries in 2002, providing 2.5 million wage and salary jobs. In 2002, there were about 86,000 grocery stores throughout the Nation.
2002 grocery store sales were $443.3 billion and are estimated at $456.6 billion for 2003.
BOOKSTORES OVERVIEW
In 2003, 42.75% of all single copy magazine purchases were sold at supermarkets/grocery stores followed by discount stores, bookstores and drugstores.
More than half of all supermarket magazine sales are purchased from the checkout display.
Source: American Booksellers Associatio n; Bureau of the Census, Current Retail Trade Branch
Book Industry Study Group, Inc. New York, NY; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau o f Labor Statistics
Grocery Store Headquarters; ”Front-End Focus” study by Dechert-Hampe/Masterfoods USA
National Association of Chain Drug Stores (NACDS); The NEW Single Copy, Ha rrington Associates, LLC, March 8, 2004
U.S. Census Bureau; Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. Estimates; US Dept of Labor: B ureau of Labor Statistics
Office Superstores
Footwear P Office Depot ODP 17.86
P Genesco GC O 21.66 O Staples SP LS 25.19
P LVMH (in Euro) LVM H.P A 58.00 U Hollywood Ent. HLYW 10.89
P R ichemont Group (in SF r) C FR .VX 32.40 O Movie Gallery MOVI 19.32
Legend: O=Outperform, P=Peer Perform, U=Under perform Source: Bear, Stearns & Co.
DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
Disclosures
The Research Analyst(s) who prepared the research report hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst(s) personal views about the subject companies and their securities. The Research Analyst(s) also certify that the
Analyst(s) have not been, are not, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation for expressing the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Signature(s)
Dana L. Telsey
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Bear, Stearns & Co. Equity Research Rating System:
Ratings for Stocks (vs. analyst coverage universe):
Outperform (O) - Stock is projected to outperform analyst's industry coverage universe over the next 12 months.
Peer Perform (P) - Stock is projected to perform approximately in line with analyst's industry coverage universe over the next 12 months.
Underperform (U) - Stock is projected to underperform analyst's industry coverage universe over the next 12 months.
Ratings for Sectors (vs. regional broader market index):
Market Overweight (MO) - Expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index for the region over the next 12 months.
Market Weight (MW) - Expect the industry to perform approximately in line with the primary market index for the region over the next 12 months.
Market Underweight (MU) - Expect the industry to underperform the primary market index for the region over the next 12 months.
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Bear, Stearns & Co. Ratings Distribution as of December 31, 2003:
Percentage of BSC universe with this rating / Percentage of these companies which were BSC investment banking clients in the last 12 months.
Outperform (Buy): 34.3 / 17.6
Peer Perform (Neutral): 49.6 / 10.4
Underperform (Sell): 16.0 / 5.7
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