Design Storms

Reading: Applied Hydrology Sec 14.1 14.4

04/20/2006
2
Design Storm
Design storm precipitation pattern defined
for use in the design of hydrologic system
Serves as an input to the hydrologic system
Can by defined by:
1. Hyetograph (time distribution of rainfall)
2. Isohyetal map (spatial distribution of rainfall)
3
Extreme value (EV) distributions
Extreme values maximum or minimum
values of sets of data
Annual maximum discharge, annual minimum
discharge
When the number of selected extreme values
is large, the distribution converges to one of
the three forms of EV distributions called Type
I, II and III
4
EV type I distribution
If M
1
, M
2
, M
n
be a set of daily rainfall or streamflow,
and let X = max(Mi) be the maximum for the year. If
M
i
are independent and identically distributed, then
for large n, X has an extreme value type I or Gumbel
distribution.
Distribution of annual maximum streamflow follows an EV1 distribution
o
t
o
o o o
5772 . 0
6
exp exp
1
) (
= =
(

|
.
|

\
|

=
x u
s
u x u x
x f
x
5
EV type III distribution
If W
i
are the minimum streamflows
in different days of the year, let X =
min(W
i
) be the smallest. X can be
described by the EV type III or
Weibull distribution.
0 k , x
x x k
x f
k k
> >
(
(

|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
|
.
|

\
|
=

o
o o o
; 0 exp ) (
1
Distribution of low flows (eg. 7-day min flow)
follows EV3 distribution.
6
Design point precipitation
Historic data of precipitation is available
Precipitation data are converted to different
durations (Table 3.4.1)
Annual maximum precipitation for a given
duration is selected for each year
Frequency analysis is performed to derive
design precipitation depths for different
return periods
The depths are converted to intensities by
dividing by precipitation durations
7
IDF curves by frequency analysis
1. Get annual maximum series of precipitation
depth for a given duration
2. Use EV1/Gumbel distribution to find
precipitation depth for different return
periods
3. Repeat 1 and 2 process for different
durations
4. Plot depth versus duration for different
frequencies
8
IDF curve
9
Example 14.2.1
Determine i and P for a 20-min duration storm with 5-yr return period in
Chicago
From the IDF curve for Chicago,
i = 3.5 in/hr for T
d
= 20 min and T
= 5yr

P = i x T
d
= 3.5 x 20/60 = 1.17 in
10
TP 40
Hershfield (1961) developed isohyetal maps of
design rainfall and published in TP 40.
TP 40 U. S. Weather Bureau technical paper no. 40.
Also called precipitation frequency atlas maps or
precipitation atlas of the United States.
30mins to 24hr maps for T = 1 to 100
Web resources for TP 40 and rainfall frequency maps
http://www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/agwa/rainfall_frequency.ht
ml
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/hq/Tp40s.htm
http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/

24-hour Design Rainfall Totals
http://onlinemanuals.txdot.gov/txdotmanuals/hyd/ebdlkup.xls
Rainfall Frequency Analysis from TP-40
http://onlinemanuals.txdot.gov/txdotmanuals/hyd/the_rational_method.htm#i999837
t
c
= time of concentration in minutes (not less than 10 minutes)
I = rainfall intensity (inches/hour)
Rainfall Frequency Analysis in Texas
= I
e
c
d t
b
I
) ( +
=
805 . 0
) 8 . 8 (
2642
+
=
c
t
I
For t
c
= 24 hours = 24*60 = 1440 min, I = 7.53 inches/hour
805 . 0
) 8 . 8 1440 (
2642
+
= I
14
2yr-60min precipitation map
This map is from
HYDRO 35 (another
publication from
NWS) which
supersedes TP 40
15
Design precipitation for Austin
16
IDF curves for Austin
( )
c
b t
a
i
+
=
ts coefficien , ,
storm of Duration
intensity rainfall design
=
=
=
c b a
t
i
Storm Frequency a b c
2-year 106.29 16.81 0.9076
5-year 99.75 16.74 0.8327
10-year 96.84 15.88 0.7952
25-year 111.07 17.23 0.7815
50-year 119.51 17.32 0.7705
100-year 129.03 17.83 0.7625
500-year 160.57 19.64 0.7449

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 10 100 1000
Duration (min)
I
n
t
e
n
s
i
t
y

(
i
n
/
h
r
)
2-yr
5-yr
10-yr
25-yr
50-yr
100-yr
500-yr
Source: City of Austin, Watershed Management Division
17
Design Precipitation Hyetographs
Most often hydrologists are interested in
precipitation hyetographs and not just the
peak estimates.
Techniques for developing design
precipitation hyetographs
1. SCS method
2. Triangular hyetograph method
3. Using IDF relationships (Alternating block method)
18
SCS Method
SCS (1973) adopted method similar to DDF to develop dimensionless rainfall
temporal patterns called type curves for four different regions in the US.
SCS type curves are in the form of percentage mass (cumulative) curves based on
24-hr rainfall of the desired frequency.
If a single precipitation depth of desired frequency is known, the SCS type curve is
rescaled (multiplied by the known number) to get the time distribution.
For durations less than 24 hr, the steepest part of the type curve for required
duraction is used

19
SCS type curves for Texas (II&III)
SCS 24-Hour Rainfall Distributions SCS 24-Hour Rainfall Distributions
T (hrs) Fraction of 24-hr rainfall T (hrs) Fraction of 24-hr rainfall
Type II Type III Type II Type III
0.0 0.000 0.000 11.5 0.283 0.298
1.0 0.011 0.010 11.8 0.357 0.339
2.0 0.022 0.020 12.0 0.663 0.500
3.0 0.034 0.031 12.5 0.735 0.702
4.0 0.048 0.043 13.0 0.772 0.751
5.0 0.063 0.057 13.5 0.799 0.785
6.0 0.080 0.072 14.0 0.820 0.811
7.0 0.098 0.089 15.0 0.854 0.854
8.0 0.120 0.115 16.0 0.880 0.886
8.5 0.133 0.130 17.0 0.903 0.910
9.0 0.147 0.148 18.0 0.922 0.928
9.5 0.163 0.167 19.0 0.938 0.943
9.8 0.172 0.178 20.0 0.952 0.957
10.0 0.181 0.189 21.0 0.964 0.969
10.5 0.204 0.216 22.0 0.976 0.981
11.0 0.235 0.250 23.0 0.988 0.991
24.0 1.000 1.000
20
SCS Method Steps
Given T
d
and frequency/T, find the design
hyetograph
1. Compute P/i (from DDF/IDF curves or equations)

2. Pick a SCS type curve based on the location
3. If T
d
= 24 hour, multiply (rescale) the type curve with P to
get the design mass curve
1. If T
d
is less than 24 hr, pick the steepest part of the type curve
for rescaling
4. Get the incremental precipitation from the rescaled
mass curve to develop the design hyetograph
21
Example SCS Method
Find - rainfall hyetograph for a 25-year, 24-hour duration SCS
Type-III storm in Harris County using a one-hour time
increment
a = 81, b = 7.7, c = 0.724 (from Tx-DOT hydraulic manual)


Find
Cumulative fraction - interpolate SCS table
Cumulative rainfall = product of cumulative fraction * total 24-hour
rainfall (10.01 in)
Incremental rainfall = difference between current and preceding
cumulative rainfall
( ) ( )
hr in
b t
a
i
c
/ 417 . 0
7 . 7 60 * 24
81
724 . 0
=
+
=
+
=
in hr hr in T i P
d
01 . 10 24 * / 417 . 0 * = = =
TxDOT hydraulic manual is available at:
http://manuals.dot.state.tx.us/docs/colbridg/forms/hyd.pdf
22
SCS Example (Cont.)
Time Cumulative
Fraction
Cumulative
Precipitation
Incremental
Precipitation
(hours) Pt/P24 Pt (in) (in)
0 0.000 0.00 0.00
1 0.010 0.10 0.10
2 0.020 0.20 0.10
3 0.032 0.32 0.12
4 0.043 0.43 0.12
5 0.058 0.58 0.15
6 0.072 0.72 0.15
7 0.089 0.89 0.17
8 0.115 1.15 0.26
9 0.148 1.48 0.33
10 0.189 1.89 0.41
11 0.250 2.50 0.61
12 0.500 5.01 2.50
13 0.751 7.52 2.51
14 0.811 8.12 0.60
15 0.849 8.49 0.38
16 0.886 8.87 0.38
17 0.904 9.05 0.18
18 0.922 9.22 0.18
19 0.939 9.40 0.18
20 0.957 9.58 0.18
21 0.968 9.69 0.11
22 0.979 9.79 0.11
23 0.989 9.90 0.11
24 1.000 10.01 0.11

0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time (hours)
P
r
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n

(
i
n
)
If a hyetograph for less than 24 needs to be prepared,
pick time intervals that include the steepest part of the
type curve (to capture peak rainfall). For 3-hr pick 11 to
13, 6-hr pick 9 to 14 and so on.
23
Triangular Hyetograph Method
Given T
d
and frequency/T, find the design hyetograph
1. Compute P/i (from DDF/IDF curves or equations)
2. Use above equations to get t
a
, t
b
, T
d
and h (r is available for
various locations)
Time
R
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

i
n
t
e
n
s
i
t
y
,

i

h
t
a
t
b
d
a
T
t
r =
T
d
T
d
: hyetograph base length = precipitation duration
t
a
:

time before the peak
r: storm advancement coefficient = t
a
/T
d
t
b
: recession time = T
d
t
a
= (1-r)T
d


d
d
T
P
h
h T P
2
2
1
=
=
24
Triangular hyetograph - example
Find - rainfall hyetograph for a 25-year, 6-hour duration in
Harris County. Use storm advancement coefficient of 0.5.
a = 81, b = 7.7, c = 0.724 (from Tx-DOT hydraulic manual)
( ) ( )
hr in
b t
a
i
c
/ 12 . 1
7 . 7 60 * 6
81
724 . 0
=
+
=
+
=
in hr hr in i P 72 . 6 6 * / 12 . 1 6 * = = =
hr t T t
hr rT t
a d b
d a
3 3 6
3 6 5 . 0
= = =
= = =
Time
R
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

i
n
t
e
n
s
i
t
y
,

i
n
/
h
r

2.24
3 hr

3 hr

6 hr

hr in
T
P
h
d
/ 24 . 2
6
44 . 13
6
72 . 6 2 2
= =

= =
25
Alternating block method
Given T
d
and T/frequency, develop a hyetograph in
At increments
1. Using T, find i for At, 2At, 3At,nAt using the IDF curve for
the specified location
2. Using i compute P for At, 2At, 3At,nAt. This gives
cumulative P.
3. Compute incremental precipitation from cumulative P.
4. Pick the highest incremental precipitation (maximum
block) and place it in the middle of the hyetograph. Pick
the second highest block and place it to the right of the
maximum block, pick the third highest block and place it
to the left of the maximum block, pick the fourth highest
block and place it to the right of the maximum block (after
second block), and so on until the last block.
26
Cumulative Incremental
Duration Intensity Depth Depth Time Precip
(min) (in/hr) (in) (in) (min) (in)
10 4.158 0.693 0.693 0-10 0.024
20 3.002 1.001 0.308 10-20 0.033
30 2.357 1.178 0.178 20-30 0.050
40 1.943 1.296 0.117 30-40 0.084
50 1.655 1.379 0.084 40-50 0.178
60 1.443 1.443 0.063 50-60 0.693
70 1.279 1.492 0.050 60-70 0.308
80 1.149 1.533 0.040 70-80 0.117
90 1.044 1.566 0.033 80-90 0.063
100 0.956 1.594 0.028 90-100 0.040
110 0.883 1.618 0.024 100-110 0.028
120 0.820 1.639 0.021 110-120 0.021

Example: Alternating Block Method
( ) ( ) 90 . 13
6 . 96
97 . 0
+
=
+
=
d
e
d
T f T
c
i
ts coefficien , ,
storm of Duration
intensity rainfall design
=
=
=
f e c
T
i
d
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-
100
100-
110
110-
120
Time (min)
P
r
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n

(
i
n
)
Find: Design precipitation hyetograph for a 2-hour storm (in 10
minute increments) in Denver with a 10-year return period 10-
minute
27
Design aerial precipitation
Point precipitation estimates are extended to
develop an average precipitation depth over
an area
Depth-area-duration analysis
Prepare isohyetal maps from point precipitation
for different durations
Determine area contained within each isohyet
Plot average precipitation depth vs. area for each
duration

28
Depth-area curve
(World Meteorological Organization, 1983)
Study by Will Asquith, USGS
http://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/wri99-4267/pdf/wri99-4267.pdf
http://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/wri99-4267/pdf/wri99-4267.pdf
http://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/wri99-4267/pdf/wri99-4267.pdf
32
Depth (intensity)-duration-frequency
DDF/IDF graph of depth (intensity) versus
duration for different frequencies
TP 40 or HYDRO 35 gives spatial distribution of
rainfall depths for a given duration and frequency
DDF/IDF curve gives depths for different durations
and frequencies at a particular location
TP 40 or HYDRO 35 can be used to develop
DDF/IDF curves
Depth (P) = intensity (i) x duration (T
d
)
d
iT P =
33
Probable Maximum Precipitation
Probable maximum precipitation
Greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that
is physically possible and reasonably characteristic over a
particular geographic region at a certain time of year
Not completely reliable; probability of occurrence is
unknown
Variety of methods to estimate PMP
1. Application of storm models
2. Maximization of actual storms
3. Generalized PMP charts
34
Probable Maximum Storm
Probable maximum storm
Temporal distribution of rainfall
Given as maximum accumulated depths for a
specified duration
Information on spatial and temporal distribution
of PMP is required to develop probable maximum
storm hyetograph
35
Probable Maximum Flood
PMF greatest flood to be expected assuming
complete coincidence of all factors that would
produce the heaviest rainfall (PMP) and maximum
runoff
Flood of unknown frequency
Most structures are not designed for PMF, but for greatest
floods that may be reasonably expected for local
conditions (meteorology, topography, and hydrology)
The design flood is commonly called standard project flood
derived from standard project storm