Tropical Revolving Storms

Satellite and radio

Satellite coverage means that most TRS are detected early and continuously monitored. Radio warnings are given in affected areas (see Admiralty List of Radio signals (ALRS)).

Tropical Depression (Start preparing for a storm) Winds up to 38 MPH

Tropical Storm (Start preparing for a hurricane) Winds up to 39 to 73 MPH Safir Simpson scale Hurricane Categories CATEGORY 1 (When in doubt, Evacuate) Winds 74-95 mph Damage to trees & shrubs Damage to unanchored mobile homes Damage to windows and vehicles from flying windblown objects Storm surge 5 feet above normal

CATEGORY 2 (Evacuate) Winds 96-110 mph Some trees down, lots of damage to foliage & shrubs Major mobile home damage Some damage to roofing Storm surge 6-8 feet above normal Coastal flooding, escape routes blocked several hours before arrival of hurricane 'eye'. Evacuation of islands and low-lying coastal areas may be required.* CATEGORY 3 (Evacuate) Winds 111-130 mph Damage to roofs, windows, doors and small buildings Destruction of mobile homes Storm Surge 9-12 feet above normal Structures near coast damaged by waves and floating debris Evacuation of coastal low-lying residences/structures within several blocks of shore*

CATEGORY 4 (Evacuate, get out of the way) Winds 131-155 mph Much Extensive damage to roofs, doors, windows Evacuation of low-lying and coastal residences and structures up to 2 miles from shore* Beach erosion and massive flooding up to 6-7 miles from shore CATEGORY 5 (Evacuate, Evacuate, Evacuate) Winds greater than 155 mph (Hurricane Andrew was in this category) Destruction of buildings, and/or windows, roofs, doors, walls Small buildings may be blown away or overturned Massive evacuations in path of storm*

Formation and Track

(www.metoffice.com)

Cloud
Most cloud in the affected areas is cumuloform. However Easterly waves (EW), tropical depressions and storms are characterised by Cirrus cloud emanating from the direction of the storm up to 700 nm from the centre. Unusually beautiful sunrise/ sunset are seen with very clear visibility. As the storm approaches cloud thickens and lowers -Ac,As,Ns. (cf Mid latitude depressions).

Wind
In areas where TRS occur trade winds normally prevail. Hence wind from an unusual direction is a possible indicator. As the storm approaches the wind increases. In the Northern Hemisphere strongest winds are to the right of the storm's track, known as the dangerous semicircle . To this side the wind will veer if the observer is stationary, similarly when the observer is in the navigable semicircle the wind will back. Buy's Ballots law indicates that with the back to the wind the eye of the storm is to the left and slightly ahead.

Swell

The direction of swell is normally fairly constant in the areas.

In general swell waves travel faster than the storm, therefore a heavy swell is often the earliest indicator. The direction of the swell indicates the storm's direction.

Pressure
Pressure in the tropics varies daily by about 3mbs in a regular, almost sinusoidal manner. Maxima 1000 and 2200, minima 0400 and 1600. Because of this pressure tendencies are reported for a 24 hour period not 3 hours as in temperate latitudes. Any variations from the norm by 3 mbs or more is a good sign of an approaching TRS. However this effect is normally felt when already close to the centre.

Avoidance (Northern Hemisphere)

Dangerous Semicircle
Put the wind on the starboard bow and keep it there, altering course accordingly until the storm is past.

Navigable Semicircle and storm's track

Put the wind on the starboard quarter, again keep it there.

Hurricane Adolf 29 May 2001

WDPN31 PHNC 290400 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR HURRICANE ADOLPH (01E) WARNING NR 14// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 290000Z1 MAY 01 TO 010000Z1 JUN 01. A. HURRICANE ADOLPH (01E), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO, HAS MOVED NORTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RE- INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 120-NM DIAMETER SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 20-NM ROUND EYE. B. HURRICANE ADOLPH (01E) IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH. THE MID- LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG. THE UK-MET DOES NOT DISPLAY AS MUCH RIDGING AND IS SLOWER WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE STORM. THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS THE AVN MODEL, MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE WESTERLY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. C. HURRICANE ADOLPH (01E) SHOULD BEGIN TO START WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.//

WARNING ATCP MIL 01E NEP 010529034344 2001052900 01E ADOLPH 014 01 290 09 SATL 010 T000 150N 1021W 125 R050 050 R035 100 NE SC 085 SW SC T012 156N 1038W 115 R050 050 R035 100 NE SC 085 SW SC T024 162N 1053W 105 R050 050 R035 100 NE SC 085 SW SC T036 167N 1066W 095 R050 050 R035 100 NE SC 085 SW SC T048 170N 1080W 085 R050 050 R035 100 NE SC 085 SW SC T072 175N 1105W 065 R050 050 R035 100 NE SC 085 SW SC AMP 012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER NNNN SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN 31 PHNC 290400 1. HURRICANE ADOLPH (01E) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --WARNING POSITION: 290000Z1 --- NEAR 15.0N6 102.1W4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N6 102.1W4 --FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 15.6N2 103.8W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 16.2N9 105.3W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 16.7N4 106.6W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 17.0N8 108.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 17.5N3 110.5W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 KNZY FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. OTTUZYUW RHHMFWCXXXX XXXXXXX-UUUU--RHMCSUU. ZNR UUUUU O 280330Z6 MAY 01 FM NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//31// TO AIG 470 LMCC BCST CINCLANTFLT NORFOLK VA//N37// ADD UNITS AS REQUIRED BT UNCLAS //N03144// HURRICANE ADOLPH (01E) HAS MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282331Z9 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGARY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. IR SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATES INCREASED WRAPPING OF BANDING FEATURES IN TO THE SYSTEM.

2007 Atlantic storms

(up to 16 September)

Rise and fall of Humberto

Storm Coordinates
Time: 1215GMT Depression 1221GMT 1303GMT 1305GMT Hurricane 1309GMT Hurricane 1315GMT 1321GMT Lat:Lon: Wind(mph):Pressure:Storm Type: 28.1-95.20 35 1006 Tropical

28.6-94.90 29.0-94.60 29.4-94.40 29.9-94.10

30.6-93.20 31.4-92.60

50 65 80 85
65 35

999 995 992 986

990 1003

Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Category Category

Tropical Storm Tropical

Depression

Humberto

Action to be taken in the vicinity of a TRS

Determine the bearing- Buys Ballots law
12 points (135) 10 points after fall of 10mb 8 points after fall of 20mb

 Estimate the distance

5mb below normal, <200nm, force 6 force 8, about 125 nm

determine the semicircle plot probable path

Semicircle
Northern Hemisphere
right hand is called dangerous left hand navigable

Real wind shift Veer right hand Back left hand Steady in path

Barometer gives quadrant falls before the trough line rises after

Rules of avoidance
Avoid passing within 75nm preferably 200nm if 20knots available, sail away Can normally be outpaced. Keep barometer within 5mb of average

Avoidance Northern Hemisphere

Wind veers then dangerous semicircle.
Place wind 1-4 points on starboard bow.

Navigable semicircle
place wind on the starboard quarter.

Use of safety sector

A ship steaming 180 at 20 kns receives a report of a TRS 700nm bearing 200moving NNW at 6 knots
lay off 24 hour progress lay off lines 40 from track describe an arc to produce a sector.

Avoiding a storm!
Six hour later, storm moving North at 10knots at 1200 movement NNE at 12 knots at 1800 NE at 15 knots.

Links
National hurricane Centre USA
Names 2005 2009

Katrina
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