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Economic Growth After Socialism - 2014
Economic Growth After Socialism - 2014
Economic Growth After Socialism - 2014
March 2014
Leszek Balcerowicz
Warsaw School of Economics
*Im grateful to Magda Cikowicz, Aleksander aszek, Sonja Wap and Marek Tataa for their assistance in preparing this presentation.
Content:
1. The institutional systems, policies, and outcomes
2. Socialism as an institutional system 3. The economic costs of socialism 4. The institutional trajectories after socialism 5. The economic outcomes after socialism 6. The non-economic outcomes after socialism 7. Explaining the differences in economic growth
(1)
Domestic Institutional System Propelling Constraining institutions institutions Long-run economic growth
Institutional (reforms)
(8) (6)
External shocks
Economic Policy
(7)
- Policies actions of public rulers - Non-institutional policies (institutions x personality factors) - Constraining institutions: - primary the political system (checks and balances) - secondary (e.g. banking supervision, independent central bank) - Propelling institutions: - type and the level of protection of property rights - the extent of market competition - fiscal and regulatory burden
5
10000
(42%)
6000
(102%) (98%)
5115
(149%)
6471 3706
(38%)
2000
Per-capita GDP (in 1990 international dollars) in 1950 and 2003: North Korea vs. South Korea Cuba vs. Chile
(1396%) (426%)
15732
12000
10950
8000
(179%)
4000
(100%) (100%) (7%)
2046 0
(56%)
3670
(23%)
2569
854
854
1127 2003
1950
2003
North Korea
South Korea
Cuba
Chile
19 50 19 53 19 56 6 19 59 19 62 19 65 19 68 19 71 19 74 19 77 19 80 19 83 19 86 19 89 19 92 19 95 19 98 2 2 00 1
10
11
5< fully institutionalized democracies 5 -5< mixed, or incoherent, authority regimes <5
-5
-5< mixed, or incoherent, authority regimes <5 -5> fully institutionalized autocracies
-10
Source: Polity IV Project
12
% of GDP
1994 2011
80
60 40 20 0
out of scale
Merchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided 14 by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars. (WDI)
Observations
- Democracy was introduced and maintained in the countries which introduced capitalism (CEE) - Non-democratic political systems co-exist with:
- quasi-capitalist economies (e.g. Russia) - quasi-socialist economies (e.g. Belarus, Central Asia)
- Important questions regarding the variation of the economic systems after socialism include especially the differences between the capitalist systems in CEE and quasi-capitalist systems elsewhere
15
16
GDP levels
US $, constant prices, constant PPPs, OECD base year, millions 12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
China Russia
4000000
2000000
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: OECD
5.00%
China Russia 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0.00%
-5.00%
-10.00%
Russia
14730
12000
10000 8000 7844 6000 4000 2000 1837 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
China
7402
Source: OECD
1
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 China Russia 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1600000
1400000 1200000 1213 mln 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 148 mln 1995 Source: OECD 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Population levels
China
1353 mln
Population levels and growth rates in China are very high, especially in comparison to those observed in Russia.
Russia
142 mln
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Russia
China
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
% of GDP
21
GDP per capita (constant US$) change between 2007 and 2012 (in %)
10%
5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25%
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
22
Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database , GDP per capita in 2013 US$ (converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS PPPs)
24
75
73
75 74 75 74 74 74 72 69 68 70 69
75
73 73 74 74
74 71
70
68 65 63 63 68 68 67
69 69 69
67
70 68
71 71 71 71 70 70
71
69
71
71
71
66 65 63
65
60
Life expectancy at birth indicates the number of years a newborn infant would live if 25 prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life.
80
40
13 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 6 6 4 4 3
16 16 15
19
15 13 11 10 9 9 8 8 5 4 4 4 4 3 3
Under-five mortality rate is the probability per 1,000 that a newborn baby will die before reaching 26 age five, if subject to current age-specific mortality rates. (WDI)
27
28
Finding no 1 is strongly supported by substantial empirical literature reviewing the experience of countries in transition.
Polanec, Sao (2004)
Krueger, Anne O. (2004)
() we find that in later stages of transition, measures of economic reforms matter for productivity growth, although with a lag, which is in our exercise equal to four years. This result confirms importance of reform efforts in enhancing the potential for growth.
() it is worth noting that those transition countries that experienced the most rapid structural reforms have, by and large, experienced more rapid growth. This is true, for example, of the Baltic States. In recent years, Russia has also seen higher rates of growth a result, in large measure, of reforms that were implemented in the 1990s. The general conclusion was that the effect of initial conditions, while strong at the start of transition, wears off over time (). Moreover, the importance of the fiscal policy variable (the budget balance) increases with the longer period data set. The coefficients on the reform indices () are significant throughout the period, irrespective of the time period considered. During transition, a positive correlation between progress in market-oriented reforms and cumulative growth is observed for most countries. This is reassuring to those who have promoted the virtues of reforms; is also serves as a warning of the dangers that arise when reform fatigue set in, as it appears to have done in parts of some region () We find that the importance of initial conditions as a determinant of growth has declined over time, but that fiscal surpluses remain positively associated with higher growth.
Aslund (2012)
The Baltic States and Central Europe have accomplished the best results.They purused all major reforms together in a comprehensive, early, and radical package. There reforms were deregulation, macroeconomic stabilization, privatization, instututional reform and democratization. Nothing suggests that it would be advantageous to intentionally hold back on any reform, whereas many reforms were technically complex and could not possibly be done very fast. () The slower reforms were, the grater was the danger that rent-seeking interests would become entrenched and block democratization and the combat of corruption, of which they were the main beneficiaries. 29
Why better economic results go hand in hand with better non-economic indicators (health, environment, etc.)? Some crucial factors conducive to long-term economic growth are also conducive to environmental improvement and to favourable health-related developments, e.g. less waste economic reforms less environmental deterioration and less damage to health
30