PERFORMANCE AND SCALABILITY OF GEOGRAPHICALLY-EXPLICIT AGENT-BASED DISEASE DIFFUSION MODELS

SUPERVISORS: IR. ELLEN-WIEN AUGUSTIJN DR. ROLF DE BY

NETSANET HAGOS GIRMAY FEBRUARY 2012

Introduction
What are the main characteristics and aspects of epidemics?
Does not distinguish one society from another, Not limited to geographical boundaries, Spatially spread mainly in two ways
o o Reallocation diffusion and Expansion diffusion

Spatial diffusion

Relocation Diffusion

Expansion Diffusion

Contagious Diffusion (Cliff, 1981)

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Hierarchical Diffusion

Motivation and problem statement

How to monitor Why model and control epidemics? epidemics? Vaccination Campaign Understanding the process:

Create Factors awareness facilitating the spread effects interventions Study Temporal and of spatial aspects

Study effects and interventions:

Close schools Vaccination Campaign Spread information and Create awareness (using News papers, Internet, Television)

Motivation
Agent Based Modeling Metapopulation

Modeling

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Research objective
General objective
To develop a method for scaling agent-based simulations that can be implemented on an existing pertussis model and improving its performance

Main theme of the research

Test and analyze scaling and performance of the existing model Preparation of a conceptual model Implement the prepared conceptual model

Methodology and results

Testing and analysing existing model

Spatial Temporal Functionality

conceptual model

Performance check

Modelling approaches

Distributed

Hybrid

Hierarchy

I m p l e m e n t a t i o n

Commuting model

Disease model

Methodology and results

Testing and analysing existing model

Spatial Temporal Functionality

conceptual model

Performance check

Modelling approaches

Distributed

Hybrid

Hierarchy

I m p l e m e n t a t i o n

Commuting model

Disease model

Methodology
Testing and analysing Hierarchical existing model

model

Spatial Temporal

Twice a week

Functionality

Urban system model

I m p l e m e n t a t i o n

conceptual model

Temporal resolution

Performance Twice a day check

Municipality model

Flow of information

Modelling approaches

Commuting model

Distributed

Every 30 minutes
Hybrid

Individual level model

Hierarchy

Disease model

Methodology
sd Use Case1

Testing and analysing existing model

Commuting Model Commuter

Destination municipality

Commute()

Spatial Temporal Functionality

Student/ worker()

conceptual model

Yes()

Week days?()

Performance check

Modelling approaches

Distributed

Hybrid

Commuter returned()

Not student/ worker()

Hierarchy

I m p l e m e n t a t i o n

Yes()

Commuting time?()

Yes() Send to destination()

Commuting End of model commuting time?()

Yes() Returnback commuters()

No commuting()

No commuting()

Disease model

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Methodology
Testing and analysing existing model

Spatial Temporal Functionality

conceptual model

Performance check

Modelling approaches

Distributed

Hybrid

Hierarchy

I m p l e m e n t a t i o n

Commuting model

Disease model

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Methodology
Testing and analysing existing model

Spatial Temporal Functionality

conceptual model

Performance check

Modelling approaches

Distributed

Hybrid

Hierarchy

I m p l e m e n t a t i o n

Commuting model

Disease model

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Conclusion and recommendation

The hierarchical approach has proven to be promising for the following reasons:

It allows scaling of the Pertussis model without increasing the number of agents significantly
Behavior can be given to the municipality and the urban center which could lead to activities and behavioral changes to control and infection. Communication between municipalities could be implemented; this could lead to the realistic detection of the spread behavior.

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Recommendations
Exploring how to calibrate the model by changing different sets of parameters.

Investigating how to add experts on the analysis and check of the model
Implement the top level model and connect the hierarchical models Check if multiple lowest level models can be attached to the models

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THANK YOU!