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ARC1
ARC1
The Context
All development is for the people People are the ultimate and the only beneficiaries. Development is directed towards meeting the needs the people. Development also contributes to capacity building of individuals as well as group of individuals family, society, etc.
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The Context
Development needs of the people are not the same. They vary by basic characteristics of population
Size, Age, Sex
The population stock determines the development needs. Development modifies the population stock through changes in mortality, fertility and other determinants.
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Outline of Presentation
Historical thinking about population as it affects social and economic progress. Population, natural resources and environment. Age structure transition. Dynamics of population growth. Population and development integration. Population and development integration in India.
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Historical Perspective
Population and development debate dates back to times immemorial.
Chinese philosophers, Confucius and others.
Ideal proportion between land and population. Checks to population growth.
Historical Perspective
Hebrew sacred books placed a strong emphasis on procreation and multiplication. Kautilya, in his Arthashastra, dating back to 3-4 Centuries BC, has dealt in detail about the role of population in building a great empire. During 15-18 Centuries, the view emerged that resources determine population.
Botero, Sir Walter Raleigh
Malthus
Subsistence severely limits population-level When means of subsistence increase, population increases Population-pressures stimulate increase in productivity Increase in productivity stimulates further populationgrowth Since productivity can not keep up with the potential of population growth for long, population requires strong checks to keep it in line with carryingcapacity.
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Malthus
Two kinds of checks that limit the growth of population
Preventive checks. These checks lead to a reduction in the birth rate moral restraints, birth control and vice. Positive checks. These checks lead to an increase in the death rate war, plague, famine.
Population Well-being
Rapid population growth is also associated with an age structure with a very high dependency. It leads to the diversion of family resources for rearing children rather than for saving and investment in the production system resulting in lowering capital labour ratio. Population control should be at the centre stage of all efforts directed towards improvements in the quality of life.
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Economic growth is pulled by population growth. Pressure of increasing resources to meet even the basic needs of an increasing population leads to technical and managerial innovations.
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Environment provides resources and absorbs wastes as the result of resource use.
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Resources
Wastes
Technology
Man
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It is possible to separate the two effects on the environment through the application of simple decomposition exercise.
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Per capita
(kgoe and tones)
Population
(million)
2005
1990-05
1094
217
2006
1990-06
1110
570
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Increase
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One implication of slowing down population growth is changes in population age structure. Changes in age structure may provide a demographic window of opportunity that spurs economic growth.
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24
25
26
27
19 70
19 90 Chi na
20 10 Indi a
20 30
20 50
28
65
60
55
50 19 50
19 70
19 90 Chi na
20 10 Indi a
20 30
20 50
29
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Dependency Ratio
India
100 80 60 40 20 0 1950
100 80 60 40 20 0 1950
China
1970
1990 Ol d
2010
2030
2050
1970
1990 Ol d
2010
2030
2050
Young
Young
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Increasing deaths is contrary to the basic philosophy of development. The only alternative is to reduce births.
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Two-child Norm
PD Integration
There are two ways to address related to population as they affect social and economic development
Treat fertility reduction an isolated techno-medical intervention. Address population factors within the framework of social and economic development.
An integrated approach to address the population and welfare needs of the people may be more effective.
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PD Integration
All development activities should be viewed through a population lens. The demographic impact assessment should be an integral part of all development programmes and activities. The population stabilization efforts family planning or otherwise must have reflections in the development mirror. Population stabilization must contribute to the welfare of the people at large.
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PD Integration
Population and development integration also provides an alternative framework for human development. Population and development integration primarily aims at building the capacity of a couple to make rational choices about its own fertility. This capacity leads to better opportunities through improved family health.
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PD Integration
It also provides opportunities to the couple, especially, the fair sex, to participate in the productive processes. Fertility related rational choices lead to maintaining population, resources, environment balance. Rational fertility choices may also lead to increased savings and investments in social and economic production systems.
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PD Integration
These capacities and opportunities, in turn, contribute to an increase in the endowments at the level of couple, family, and the society. Examples of successful population and development experience are, however, very few. Necessary data, analytical frameworks and institutional arrangements for integration are generally missing.
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PD Integration in India
Population issues have always been discussed at length at the planning stage in India. Population variables have not been incorporated in the main macro-economic model as endogenous variables like investment. Population projections are worked out separately and used in sub-models like consumption model and sectoral allocations.
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PD Integration in India
For example, there has been no attempt to take into consideration, the impact of decrease in fertility on female work participation. At the operational level, population and development integration is confined to integrating family planning services with health care delivery services. At the grass roots level, there has been little attempt to integrated service delivery.
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Thank You
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