Demographics of Aging

The Demographics of Aging in the
United States
POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org
Mark Mather, Associate Vice President, U.S. Programs, PRB
May 2014
2014 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
In the U.S., the Number of People Ages 65 and Older
Will More Than Double By 2050.

The Age Profile of the U.S. Population Has Shifted,
from 1970
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Through the Present (2010)
And Into the Future (2030).
By 2030, One in Five Americans Will Be Ages 65 and
Older.
Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2012 Population Estimates.
Older Americans Make Up At Least 20 Percent of
the Population of One-Fifth of U.S. Counties.
By 2030, There Will Only Be Three Working-Age
Adults For Every Person Age 65 or Older.
Elderly Support Ratio: Number of persons ages 18-64 per person ages 65+
Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2012 Population Estimates.
One in Three Counties Already Has An Elderly
Support Ratio of Three or Less.
Social Security and Medicare Expenditures Are
Projected to Reach 12% of GDP by 2050.
Source: A Summary of the 2013 Annual Social Security and Medicare Trust Fund Reports.
Changes in Family Patterns May Result in Less
Availability of Family Caregivers in U.S.
High rates of divorce.

Increasing cohabitation and nonmarital
childbearing.

Blended families.

Households Have Changed Significantly Since the
1940s.
NOTE: Percentages for subcategories may not sum to category totals due to rounding.
SOURCE: U.S. Census bureau, decennial censuses from 1940 to 2010.
Percent
Over Two-Fifths of Older Americans Live Alone.
NOTE: Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.
Percent
Disability Rates are Increasing.
Disability rates among Medicare enrollees
age 65+ declined from 1984 through 1999,
but have been increasing since 2000.

Increasing disability rates combined with the
large number of baby boomers could mean
shortages of nursing homes and other long-
term care facilities in the future.
Does U.S. Population Aging Really
Matter?

Yes

For federal government and many states,
local areas
Current law hard to sustain for entitlement
programs
Impact on health care system
Potential shortage of caregivers and
shrinking social networks

But the U.S. Population is Relatively Young Compared
with Many Other Developed Countries.

Compare the U.S. with Projected Population in
Japan (2030).
Children Will Outnumber Older Americans in U.S. Until
2050.

Percent of Total Population: 1950-2060
Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
Nearly Half of the U.S. Population will be
Racial/Ethnic Minorities by 2030.
Percent of U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity: 1980-2030
But Children are Expected to Pass the Majority-
Minority Threshold Sooner.
Percent of U.S. Population Under age 18 by Race/Ethnicity: 1980-2030
*Minorities include all racial and ethnic groups except non-Hispanic whites. Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
There is a Racial/Ethnic Divide Between
Generations.
Percent of the U.S. Population That Is Minority*, by Age Group: 1980, 2010, 2030
Fertility Rates Have Leveled Off but the Foreign-Born
Population has Increased.
The Non-Hispanic White Population is Aging Rapidly
as Baby Boomers Reach Retirement Age.
Population by Age and Sex, U.S. White Alone, not Hispanic or Latino: 2012
The Latino Population has a Younger Age Structure
Because of Higher Fertility and Past Immigration.
Population by Age and Sex, U.S. Hispanic or Latino: 2012
Both Older Men and Older Women are
Working More.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
And More Adults Ages 55+ Have Completed
College.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.
Does U.S. Population Aging Really
Matter?

No

U.S. is young, relative to Europe
Population aging is selective, affecting some
groups more than others
Baby boomers can cope better than previous
generations
Staying in labor force
Better educated

Implications for Future

Major demographic changes are underway
More racial/ethnic minorities
Older boomersmany staying in labor force
Juxtaposition of older boomers (mostly white) and
children/young adults who are increasingly Latino,
Asian, multiracial
Will future labor force have necessary
skills/education to sustain economic growth
and support an aging population?

Thank You!

Mark Mather
202-939-5433
mmather@prb.org

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