Education and the Workforce:

Delmarva in the Rural-Urban Context

Robert M. Gibbs
Economic Research Service - USDA

The views and opinions expressed in this presentation do not

necessarily reflect the views of the Economic Research Service or the
U.S. Department of Agriculture.
 Overview
The seven counties that make up the Lower Delmarva region are
experiencing significant transition, from an economy based on agriculture and
manufacturing to one based on services. Educational attainment levels in
most of the region, however, are lower than its changing industry mix would
imply. The outmigration of young adults due to the close proximity of urban
areas with higher-wage jobs, and a sizable minority population with relatively
low human capital levels are serious challenges to economic development.
Yet these same attributes of access and diversity could be turned to the
region’s advantage if complemented by a development strategy that includes
a strong human capital investment component.
 Distribution of Employment by Selected Industries, 2000
The Delmarva economy has an industrial structure that is distinct from either the
typical urban or rural structure. The region has a more “urban” profile in terms of
manufacturing’s share of employment, and a more “rural” profile in terms of
professional services. In agriculture, Delmarva falls between the two profiles.
Percent
25

20

15

10

0
Agriculture Manufacturing Retail Education/Health Professional Art/Entertainment
Services Services Services

Rural Delmarva Urban

Note: “Rural” and “urban” in this presentation refer to “nonmetropolitan” and “metropolitan” counties,
according to the 1993 metro definitions authorized by the Office of Management and Budget.
Source: Calculated by ERS using data from the US Census Bureau
 Adult Educational Attainment in Delmarva, 2000
Delmarva’s education profile is much closer to that of a typical rural county. Less than
one in five adults ages 25 and over has a 4-year college degree; nearly one in four lacks
a high school diploma.

100%
15.5 17.4
90%
26.6
80%
25.8 23.6
70%

60% 27.8

50%

40% 35.5 35.6

26.9
30%

20%
23.2 23.4
10% 18.7

0%

Rural Delmarva Urban

No high school High school
Some college College graduate

Source: Calculated by ERS using data from the US Census Bureau

 Educational Attainment in Delmarva Counties, 2000
Substantial variation exists within the Delmarva region, reflecting in part the differing
industrial histories and current economic mix of the seven counties.
100%
13.5 12 11.6
17.4 16.6
90% 21.9 21.6

80% 20.2 21.1

20.3
70% 23.6 24.3
24.4 25.9
60%

50% 34.1 36.8

42.1
40% 35.6 35.6
34.4 34.1
30%

20%
32.1 30.5
23.4 25.8 23.5
10% 19.3 18.3

0%
Delmarva Accomack Dorchester Somerset Sussex Wicomico Worcester

No high school High school

Some college College graduate

Source: Calculated by ERS using data from the US Census Bureau

Delmarva Counties and Their Twins

Each county in the region was matched with another

U.S. county sharing a similar industrial structure

• Accomack Grady, GA
• Dorchester Canyon, ID
• Somerset Pittsburg, OK
• Sussex Benzie, MI
• Wicomico Cape Girardeau, MO
• Worcester Harrison, MS
 Share of Adults With No High School Diploma in Delmarva and Twin
Counties, 2000
In most cases, the twin county has a lower share of adults who did not complete high
school than the Delmarva county.
Percent
40

32.1
30.6 30.5
30
25.8
24 23.8 23.5

19.3 18.9 19.7

20 18.3
14.6

10

0
Accomack Dorchester Somerset Sussex Wicomico Worcester

Delmarva Twin

Source: Calculated by ERS using data from the US Census Bureau

 Share of Adults With Four-Year College Degree in Delmarva and
Twin Counties, 2000
College completion rates are higher in most of the twin counties. This slide, and the
previous one, suggest that Delmarva has a lower human capital base than would be
expected given its industry mix.
Percent
30

24.2

21.9 21.6
20
20
18.4
16.6
14.9
13.5 12.9
12 11.6
10.6
10

0
Accomack Dorchester Somerset Sussex Wicomico Worcester

Delmarva Twin

Source: Calculated by ERS using data from the US Census Bureau

 Issues: Metropolitan Proximity
• Four metropolitan statistical areas with at least one million people lie within a 3-
hour drive.

• Economic differences between Delmarva and nearby cities are especially large,
given the great number of managers and professionals in these cities, and the
quasi-rural character of Delmarva’s industry and education profiles.

• Delmarva youth have a large number of lucrative alternatives – human capital

“leakage” likely to remain significant

• But Delmarva’s proximity to urban areas, combined with its natural amenities,
also make it appealing to managers and professionals – the region could build
on these strengths. Investment in high-quality schools could play an important
role here.
 Earnings Per Job in Manufacturing and Retail Industries, 2000
Earnings in Delmarva are much lower than in nearby metropolitan areas. This
especially encourages outmigration among the younger and the better-educated.
Dollars
100000

78168
80000

60000
52888

37668
40000
31990
26114
19667
20000 15365 16905

0
Wicomico Sussex Baltimore, MD Chester, PA

Manufacturing Retail

Source: Calculated by ERS using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Dept. of Commerce
 Issues: Racial and Ethnic Inequality
• Delmarva counties have a larger-than-average share of African-Americans.

• Hispanics are a small but rapidly growing share of the Delmarva population.

• African-Americans and Hispanics in the region have far lower educational

attainment on average than whites who are not Hispanic

• Parents’ education and income are critical predictors of student’s future

attainment. Thus, racial and ethnic inequality are likely to persist without
intervention.

• The challenge of including African-Americans and Hispanics in community and

regional decision-making will become more pressing in the near future.
 Hispanic and African-American Population Shares in Delmarva
Counties, 2000
Percent
50

41.6
40

31.8

30 28.6

23.6

20
16.8
15.1
12.5 12.1

10
5.4 4.4
1.3 1.3 2.2 1.3
0
U.S. Accomack Dorchester Somerset Sussex Wicomico Worcester

African-American Hispanic

Source: Calculated by ERS using data from the US Census Bureau

 Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity in Delmarva Counties, 2000

Percent
100%
7
11.6
90% 19.8
17.9
12.9
80%

70% 17.1 25.3

60% 36.5

50%

40% 36.1

30% 58.4

20% 38.6

10% 18.8

0%
African-American Hispanic White (not Hispanic)

No high school High school

Some college College graduate

Source: Calculated by ERS using data from the US Census Bureau

 Issues: Role of Manufacturing

• Manufacturing is often an “anchor” sector

• Manufacturing job growth in the1990s was greater in places with higher

educational attainment rates. In contrast, employers in the 1980s often
sought low-wage (and low education) locations.

• New strategies for retaining and expanding manufacturing rely on

partnerships among high schools, high-skill employers, and public and
private “mediators.”
 Percent Change in Rural Manufacturing Jobs
by High School Completion Rates
In the 1980s, manufacturing grew faster in rural counties with lower
completion rates. But in the 1990s, low-education counties lost
manufacturing jobs. 8.7

6.5

County rank in high

3.1
school
Bottom half completion rate
1

Top half

-3.3

1980-1990 1990-2000

Young adults ages 25-44.

1

Produced by David McGranahan, ERS, with data from the 1990 Census of Population.
 Conclusions
• Delmarva’s economy exhibits similarities to both the urban and rural models.
• Educational attainment is slightly below expectations, given its industrial structure.
• Low educational attainment may constrain Delmarva’s transition to a higher wage,
higher skill economic track.
• Metropolitan proximity has probably contributed to “brain drain.” But this could be
mitigated -- access to markets, cultural amenities, potential migrants. Schools are
a key factor.
• Racial inequality is a challenge to all components of the workforce development
system.
• Economic transition to services inevitable, but preserving traditional sectors can
pay off. School-work partnerships can make a difference.