Regional Development, Regional

(in)stability and Tourism Industry

(Regional Case study)

Imran, M
Prof: An Husan
Regional Development, Regional (in)stability and Tourism Industry
(Regional Case study)


Abstract:

Regional Instability and threats to national security are
documented to have impact on tourism demand. This research
focuses on the impact of social instability on the tourism
industry. The proposed model based on two different points in
time in relation to social instability. This study uses panel data in
order to estimate the impact of Social Instability on tourism
industry.

Regional Development, Regional (in)stability and Tourism Industry
(Regional Case study)
Introduction:
This research analyses the impact of Social Instability on the tourism
industry with the method of stratified random sampling, for this purpose
two main tourists spots will be interviewed.
Social insecurity and incidents at destinations have a very harmful impact
on the hotel sector as a whole if there are dramatic falls in arrivals of the
tourists to the destination affected by the Social Instability (Stafford et al,
2002).
Political stability and safety are prerequisite for tourist visitation. Violent
protests, social unrest, civil war or even the threat of these activities can
all serve a negative cause on tourists to alter their travel behavior (Hall,
1994, Hall and OSullivan 1996).
Regional Development, Regional (in)stability and Tourism Industry
(Regional Case study)
The effect of crime on tourist arrivals in four Caribbean and four South
Pacific islands represents one of the few exceptions. They find a negative
impact of crime on tourism. (Levantis et al, 2000).
The importance of tourism for hotel industry and the economy are
analyzed through the time series data of 266 hotels in England and
observed a positive impact on the revenues and regional imbalances are
reduced through the effective marketing of local and provincial hotels and
centers. (Jeffrey et al, 1988).
The main difference (heterogeneity) in the impact of terror events on
tourist behavior depend on three dimensions: cultural aspects, personal
experience, and the cost of avoiding the risk. For instance, previous
studies have found that when the degree of substitution among products is
low the effect of terror events on tourist behavior is quite low. (Becker et
al, 2004; Yechiam et al 2005).
Regional Development, Regional (in)stability and Tourism Industry
(Regional Case study)
The importance of hotel industry to tourism and travel (T & T)
sectors make it relevant to security because these kind of activity
cause a negative effect on revenues and employment and have a
destabilizing repercussion for destination economies, societies and
politics (Pizam et al, 2002; Sonmez, 1998).
Tourists arrivals data for hotels in Portsmouth is collected for the
period of January 1987 to December 1994. The objective was to
establish whether there has be any change in seasonal pattern of
tourists arrival over time (Grainger et al, 1995).
Regional Development, Regional (in)stability and Tourism Industry
(Regional Case study)
The hotel industry had been waiting for an upturn in the economy
before September 11, 2001. Business travel had already been in
the dumps, and hotel occupancy rates werent exactly robust
before recession, and Sept. 11 became part of our everyday
lexicon (Ally et al, 2000).
Regional Development, Regional (in)stability and Tourism Industry
(Regional Case study)
Methodology
In this section, this research analyzes the dynamics of hotel industry to
Social Instability. The data for this research will be collected through the
method of questionnaire as qualitative approach.
This research will attempt to explore the economic impact of tourism
industry as a consequence of regional instability comes in form of
insecurity. To analyze the impact of Social Instability on the tourism
industry this research will focus on the following four main objectives.



.
Regional Development, Regional (in)stability and Tourism Industry
(Regional Case study)
First it will assess the economic losses to the tourism industry due to
the Social Instability in a specific time lag.
Second it will observe the current business environment of tourism
industry
Third it will examine the employment situation in the tourism and hotel
industry of a specific region(s).
Fourth to find that how many losses were incurred during and after the
Social Instability. There is an appreciation in other tourism sectors that
tourists are cognizant of hazards and want assurance that safeguards
have been installed (Tarlow 2006, 2005; Tarlow et al, 1996).
Regional Development, Regional (in)stability and Tourism Industry
(Regional Case study)
For convenience region will take the form of symbols
i
(i=1,2,,n)

d, tourism
= f (number of tourist arrival (nta), number of hotels (nh),
seasonal change in nta (sch), previous regional development ratio
(
d
,
t-1
), regional security level (rsl), foreign spending (fs)).
The equation will also try to accommodate the forecast of tourist arrival,
for which we will need different equation E (nta). Naturally, tourists are
sensitive to events of violence and political instability in their holiday
destination as such events jeopardize. Substantial increases in politically
motivated violence can be expected to lower tourist arrivals in the long
run. The negative impact is somewhat smaller on receipts from tourism.
Regional Development, Regional (in)stability and Tourism Industry
(Regional Case study)
Refrences:
Accinelli, E., Brida, J. G. & Carrera, E. (2007). The Effects on
Environmental Investment of Changes in Tourism Demand,
Published in: TOURISMOS: An International Multidisciplinary
Journal of Tourism 2 2 : pp. 129-140
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Sustainable Tourism. ASEAN Journal on Hospitality and
Tourism, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 115-127,
Ally, H. Y. and Strazicich, M. C. (2000). Social Instability and
tourism: Is the impact permanent or transitory? Time series
evidence from Egypt and Israel, Working paper 2010.
Becker, G.S. Rubinstein, Y. (2004). Fear and the Response to
Social Instability: An Economic Analysis.
Beirman, D. (2003). Restoring Tourism Destinations in Crisis.
Sydney: Allen & Unwin,
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Regional Development, Regional (in)stability and Tourism Industry
(Regional Case study)
Bramwell, B; Lane, B., (1993). Sustainable tourism: an evolving global
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Portsmouth University- Department of Economics in its series
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Violence In Tourism, Crime and International Security, Issues, A.
Pizam and Y. Mansfeld, eds., pp. 105-121. New York: Wiley.