Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SBCO 6240 Project Management HB Student
SBCO 6240 Project Management HB Student
SBCO 6240 Project Management HB Student
Anthony Chevers
Lecture #8 –
Project Management
Definition
Project Schedule
• PERT
• Exercises
Discussion Questions
2
1 4
3 6
All that is required to construct
a network is the starting and 5
ending event for each activity.
Lecture 9 – Project Management | 8
PERT – Example #3
Develop a network based on the following information:
Activity Immediate Predecessor
(s)
A ---
B ---
C A
D B
E C, D
F E
G E
H F
Complete a network below
I G
A C
B D
Lecture 9 – Project Management | 9
PERT Equations
1. Elapsed time (t) = a+4m + b
6
Where a is optimistic time for activity completion, m is mort likely completion time and b is
pessimistic time for activity completion.
i.e. The probability of success that the project will be completed within the specified time.
PERT and CPM are two widely used network techniques that have the ability to consider
precedence relationships and interdependency of activities. Their objectives are the
same and the analysis used in both techniques are the same.
The major differences is that PERT employs three times estimates for each activity with
levels of probabilities while CPM makes the assumption that activity times are known
with certainty.
6
[1]
Secure [3] Men
Start men arrive End
[4] [4]
land nego Buy draw Plan Build erect install
1 2 3 4 plan 5 9 10 11 12
owner $ land apprv found
[2] [3] [5] [16] bldg furni
[3] Deliver [8] [2]
Bill of material
mtls [2]
[2]
7 8
Buy material
[Duration in Weeks]
Earliest A Earliest
Start Finish
ES EF
LS LF Latest
Latest Finish
Start 2
Activity Duration
A c tiv ity
Lecture 9 – Project Management | 23
Gradual Progression on
Measures
0 224
0 2244810 47
131
A c tiv
48 13
ity13
1
0 337 8 13
Lecture 9 – Project Management | 24
Milwaukee Paper’s Schedule
and Slack Times
(Slack = LS – ES or LF – EF)
E
Start H
B D G
Arrows Show
Precedence
Relationships
Probability of 1
in 100 of
< a occurring
Probability
Probability of 1
in 100 of > b
occurring
Activity
Optimistic Most Likely Time Pessimistic Time
Time (a) (m) Time (b)
15 Weeks
Joni Steinberg would like to find the probability that her project will be finished
on or before the 16-week deadline.
To do so, she needs to determine the appropriate area under the normal curve.
The standard normal equation can be applied as follows:
due expected date Where Z is the number of
Z = date – of completion /σ p standard deviations the due
date lies from the mean or
expected date.
= (16 wks – 15 wks)/ 1.76 = 0.57
Time 0.57 Standard deviations
Probability
(T ≤ 16 weeks)
is 71.57%
Time
15 16
Weeks Weeks
Lecture 9 – Project Management | 31
Z-Value for 99% Probability of Project
Completion at Milwaukee Paper
Joni Steinberg wants to find the due date under which her company’s project
has a 99% chance of completion. She first needs to compute the Z-value
corresponding to 99% shown in Figure 3.17
Probability of 0.99
Probability of 0.01
2.33 Standard Z
deviations
0 2.33
D. Anthony Chevers
delroy.chevers@uwimona.edu.jm
DOMS, Room #28
37