Approximating the Performance of Call

Centers with Queues using Loss Models

Ph. Chevalier, J-Chr. Van den Schrieck
Universit catholique de Louvain
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 2
Observation
High correlation between performance of
configurations in loss system and in systems with
queues
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 3
Loss models are easier than
queueing models
Smaller state space.
Easier approximation methods for loss
systems than for queueing systems.
(e.g. Hayward, Equivalent Random Method)

May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 4
Main assumptions
Multi skill service centers (multiple
independant demands)
Poisson arrivals
Exponential service times
One infinite queue / type of demand
Processing times identical for all type
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 5
Building a loss approximation



Queue with
infinite length
Incoming
inputs with
infinite
patience
Rejected inputs
No queues
Rejected if
nothing
available

May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 6
Building a loss approximation
Server configuration
Use identical configuration in loss system
Routing of arriving calls
Can be applied to loss systems
Scheduling of waiting calls
No equivalence in loss systems
Difficult to approximate systems with other
rules than FCFS
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 7
multiple skill example
Lost calls
Type Z-Calls
Z
Type X-Calls Type Y-Calls
X Y
X-Y
X-Y-Z
Building a loss approximation
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 8
performance measures of Queueing
Systems:
Probability of Waiting:

Erlang C formula (M/M/s system):



With
a = / , the incoming load (in Erlangs).
s the number of servers.


Building a loss approximation
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 9
performance measures of Queueing
Systems:
Average Waiting Time (Wq) :

Building a loss approximation
Finding C(s,a) is the key element
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 10
Erlang formulas
Link between Erlang B and Erlang C:




Where B(s,a) is the Erlang B formula with parameters s and a :


May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 11
Approximations
We try to extend the Erlang formulas to
multi-skill settings
Incoming load a : easily determined
B(s,a) : Hayward approximation
Number of operators s : allocation
based on loss system

May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 12
Approximations
Hayward Loss:

Where:
is the overflow rate
z is the peakedness of the incoming flow,


May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 13
Approximations
Idea: virtually allocate operators to the different
flows i.o. to make separated systems.
Sx Sy
Sxy
Sx Sy
Sxy Sxy Sxy
+ +
Sx Sy
Operators: allocated according to
their utilization by the different
flows.
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 14
Simulation experiments
Description
Comparison of systems with loss and of
systems with queues. Both types receive
identical incoming data.
Comparison with analytically obtained
information.
analysis of results
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 15
Simulation experiments
5 Erlangs 5 Erlangs
X = 3 Y = n
X-Y = 7
n from 1 to 10
Experiments with 2 types of
demands
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 16
Simulation experiments
Proportion of Operators for each Type of Demand
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2 4 6 8 10 12
Queueing System (simulated)
L
o
s
s

S
y
s
t
e
m

(
s
i
m
u
l
a
t
e
d
)
Operators to X-flow
Operators to Y-flow
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 17
Simulation experiments
Waiting Probabilities (W.P.) using simulation data
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9
Simulated W.P.
C
o
m
p
u
t
e
d

W
.
P
.
W.P. X
W.P. Y
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 18
Simulation experiments
Waiting Probabilities (W.P.) using computed data
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9
Simulated W.P.
C
o
m
p
u
t
e
d

W
.
P
.
W.P. X
W.P. Y.
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 19
Simulation experiments
Accuracy of the Approximation compared with the
Simulations
0
0,005
0,01
0,015
0,02
0,025
W
a
i
t
i
n
g

P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
Waiting Probability X
Waiting Probability Y
General Waiting
Probability
N = Sim
B = Sim
N = Sim
B = Comp
N = Comp
B = Comp
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 20
Average Waiting Time
The interaction between the different types of demand is a little harder to
analyze for the average waiting time.
Once in queue the FCFS rule will tend to equalize waiting times

Each type can have very different capacity dedicated
=> One virtual queue, identical waiting times for all types
=> Independent queues for each type, different waiting times
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 21
Average Waiting Time
We derivate two bounds on the waiting time:
1. A lower bound: consider one queue ; all operators are available for all calls from
queue.


2. An upper bound: consider two queues ; operators answer only one type of call
from queue.
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 22
Simulation experiments
Bounds for Average Waiting Time
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5
Simulated Waiting Time
C
o
m
p
u
t
e
d

W
a
i
t
i
n
g

T
i
m
e
Inf Bound for X
Inf Bound for Y
Sup Bound for X
Sub Bound for Y
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 23
Simulation experiments
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0 0,0
1
0,0
2
0,0
3
0,0
4
0,0
5
0,0
6
0,0
7
0,0
8
0,0
9
0,1 0,1
1
0,1
2
0,1
3
0,1
4
0,1
5
0,1
6
0,1
7
0,1
8
0,1
9
0,2
Simul Values
C
o
m
p

V
a
l
u
e
s
Inf X
Inf Y
Sup X
Sup Y
May 11, 2006 Ph. Chevalier, J-C Van den Schrieck, UCL 24
Limits and further research
Service time distribution : extend
simulations to systems with service time
distributions different from exponential
Approximate other performance
measures
Extention to systems with impatient
customers / limited size queue