Forecasting of power demand &

economic impact of new CERC tariff

rules
Group no. 4 (Section-C)

Praneev Atram (PGP30161)
Sakshi Jain (PGP30167)
Sneha Vinherkar (PGP30173)
Sonika Angilin (PGP30174)
Vishnu Chauhan (PGP30178)
Vivekanandan KK (PGP30179)
Vivek Kumar Gupta
(PGP30180)
IMPORTANCE OF POWER
Human

Roti

Bijli
Makaan
Kapda
12%
17%
9%
2%
1%
59%
Renewable
Energy
Hydroelectrici
ty
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF POWER IN INDIA

HIERARCHY FOLLOWED IN POWER INDUSTRY IN
INDIA

Public Sector enterprises: NTPC -Generating Company, PTC-Trading
Company, POWERGRID-Transmission Company
Undertakings owned by Central government: DVC
Regulators: Appellate tribunal for electricity, Central Electricity
Regulatory Commission


PUBLIC AND PRIVATE INDUSTRIES IN
POWER SECTOR
NTPC - 43,128 MW
Reliance Power Limited-33,480 MW
Tata Power Co. Ltd -8613 MW
Adani Power Limited- 7920 MW
Suzlon Energy-584 MW

POWER TARIFF REGULATORY BODIES IN
INDIA
The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC)
State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERCs)
THE MAIN FUNCTIONS OF THE CERC

To regulate tariffs in the power generating companies
CERC regulates the inter-state transmission of energy which includes
tariff of the transmission utilities.
Indian Electricity Grid Code (IEGC), Availability Based Tariff (ABT)
Facilitate inter-state trading


ECONOMIC IMPACT OF NEW CERC RULES
ON NTPC
Incentives based on plant load factor (PLF) rather than plant
availability factor (PAF).
The CERC has also lowered the heat rate standard for coal-based
plants to 2,375kCal/kWh from 2,400kCal/kWh.
It is forcing the power plant to be more efficient
ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC IMPACT OF NEW CERC DEVIATION
SETTLEMENT MECHANISM ON SSTPS POWER PLANT NTPC LTD.
SCOPE OF ANALYSIS
The change in economic impact due to unplanned shutdown of thermal
power units

The change in breakeven frequency for unscheduled interchange of
power by equating marginal cost to marginal revenue.


ABOUT SINGRAULI SUPERTHERMAL POWER STATION-
NTPC LIMITED
It consists of 2 x 500 MW units and 5 x 200 MW units

Uses Coal as fuel
DEVIATION SETTLEMENT
MECHANISM
Every power producer declares its generation capacity one day in
advance to load dispatch centers, its called Declared Capacity (DC)

Load Dispatch Centers tell in advance how much each power plant
should produce according to time , its called Scheduled Generation
(SG)

The actual power generated by the power producer is called Actual
Generation (AG)

The target of load dispatch centers is to maintain grid frequency with in
a narrow band for grid stability , currently its revised to 49.95 to 50.05
Hz

Power generating stations are rewarded or penalized monetarily for
under/over injection i.e Deviation (SG AG) of power based on the
Grid Frequency
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THERMAL POWER UNIT
TRIPPING
In this table we have analysed changes economic losses due to tripping of one unit at a
time i.e. either 500MW unit or 200 MW unit with varying frequency
2014 2010 2014 2010 2014 2010
At Frequency(Hz) 50 50 49.94 49.94 50.05 50.05
Charges of deviation(Paisa/kWh) 178 155 303.04 201.5 0 124
Scheduled Generation(MW) 1945 1945 1945 1945 1945 1945
If one 200 MW unit trips
Scheduled Generation for next 45 minutes(MW) 1945 1945 1945 1945 1945 1945
Actual Generation for next 45 minutes(MW) 1755 1755 1755 1755 1755 1755
Total deviation(MW) 190 190 190 190 190 190
Deviation charges(Lacs) 2.54 2.21 4.32 2.87 0.00 1.77
Additional Deviation charges(Lacs) 0.11 0.09 0.18 0.12 0.00 0.07
Total loss (Lacs) 2.64 2.30 4.50 2.99 0.00 1.84
If one 500 MW unit trips
Scheduled Generation for next 45 minutes(MW) 1945 1945 1945 1945 1945 1945
Actual Generation for next 45 minutes(MW) 1465 1465 1465 1465 1465 1465
Total deviation(MW) 480 480 480 480 480 480
Deviation charges(Lacs) 6.41 5.58 10.91 7.25 0.00 4.46
Additional Deviation charges(Lacs) 3.47 3.02 5.91 3.93 0.00 2.42
Total loss (Lacs) 9.88 8.60 16.82 11.18 0.00 6.88
KEY
OBSERVATIONS
If presently unit trips at frequencies above 50.05 Hz there is no loss due to
deviation charges ,but previously there were charges/penalties corresponding
to the same event.

Also we see that if unit trips at frequencies below 50.05 Hz the penalties or
deviation charges are higher now as compared to before.

The new tariff rules have led to a better frequency management of electricity
grid.
Comparative analysis of new Deviation Settlement Mechanism (2014 vs
2010)
In this analysis we are comparing the CERC (Unscheduled Interchange charges and
related matters) (Amendment) Regulations, 2010 with the new CERC (Deviation
Settlement Mechanism and related matters) Regulations, 2014
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
49.4 49.5 49.6 49.7 49.8 49.9 50 50.1 50.2 50.3
D
E
V
I
A
T
I
O
N

C
H
A
R
G
E
S

(
P
A
I
S
E
/
K
W
H
)

GRID FREQUENCY (HZ)
Comparative Analysis of Deviation rates wrt
Frequency
Charges for Deviation (Paise/kWh) Charges for Deviation (Paise/kWh)
ANALYSIS OF BREAKEVEN FREQUENCY AT NEW TARIFF RATES(2014) VS OLD
TARIFF RATES(2010)
The selling price for power produced at Singrauli Super Thermal Power Station
(SSTPS), Shaktinagar, Uttar Pradesh is 165 Paisa per Unit (kWH) and the
marginal cost of power production is 111 Paisa per Unit (kWH)
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
49.9 49.95 50 50.05 50.1 50.15 50.2
D
E
V
I
A
T
I
O
N

C
H
A
R
G
E
S
-
M
A
R
G
I
N
A
L

R
E
V
E
E
N
U
E

(
P
A
I
S
E
/
K
W
H
)

GRID FREQUENCY (HZ)
Breakeven frequency for New(2014) vs Old(2010)
Tariff Rules
Charges for Deviation (Paise/kWh) Charges for Deviation (Paise/kWh)
Marginal Cost of Power production (Paise/kWh)
KEY OBSERVATIONS
At breakeven frequency the marginal revenue (MR) realized is equal to the
marginal cost (MC) of power generation.

For a power producer its profitable to generate extra power only till its MR
is greater than MC else it should stop generating extra power above the
scheduled generation.

From this graph we see that under New tariff rules (2014) the breakeven
frequency (New) is 50.02 Hz while under that of Old tariff rules (2010) the
breakeven frequency (Old) was 50.06 Hz.

Thus ideally now Singrauli Super Thermal Power Station (SSTPS) should not
generate any extra power if frequency is above 50.02 Hz



Short term forecasting of Power demand in DELHI based on daily
average temperature
Data Source
Average temperature/day of Delhi in August 2014 (IMD website)
Anticipated demand for power has been obtained State Load Despatch Centre,
DELHI website for the past one month (August 1, 2014 to August 29, 2014).
Details of the Regression analysis are as
following:
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.528239562
R Square 0.279037035
Adjusted R Square 0.248996911
Standard Error 244.4990908
Observations 26
Power Demand = f(Daily Average
Temperature)
Power Demand
Function=>
CONCLUSIO
N
Final results Power Demand (MW)=94.72*Daily Average Temperature(Temp) +977.98
is the best fit line with the 95% confidence level with standard error of 31.08.

This model is able to explain 28% of variation in the data available.

As the temperature increases, power demand increases.
Thank you


Questions?