Global Warming

Will Human-Induced Climate

Change Destroy the World?

Introduction
Is the world getting warmer?
If so, are the actions of mankind to
blame for earths temperature
increases?
What can/should be done about these
issues?
Are the potential resolutions worth the
cost to implement them?
History of Earths Climate
Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago
Originally very hot
Suns energy output only 70% of
present
Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years
ago (zircon dating)
Much of earths early history erased
during late heavy bombardment (~3.9
billion years ago)
History of Earths Climate
Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago
Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion
years ago
Produced oxygen and removed carbon
dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases)
Earth went through periods of cooling
(Snowball Earth) and warming
Earth began cycles of glacial and
interglacial periods ~3 million years
ago
Sun
Earths Temperature
Solar
Energy
Solar
Energy
Sun
Earths Temperature
Solar
Energy
Radiative
Cooling
Sun
Earths Temperature
Solar
Energy
Radiative
Cooling
Sun
Earths Temperature
Solar
Energy
Radiative
Cooling
Greenhouse Effect
Sun
Earths Atmospheric Gases
Nitrogen (N
2
)
Oxygen (O
2
)
Water (H
2
O)
Carbon Dioxide (CO
2
)
>99%
Methane (CH
4
)
<1%
Non-
Greenhouse
Gases
Greenhouse
Gases
Argon (Ar)
Sun
Runaway Greenhouse Effect
97% carbon dioxide
3% nitrogen
Water & sulfuric
acid clouds
Temperature:
860F
Venus
Carbon Dioxide
170
220
270
320
370
420
200000 400000 600000
Time (YBP)
C
O
2

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)


Vostok Ice Core Dome Concordia
Carbon Dioxide Levels
0
Muana Loa Readings
CO
2
Levels Since 1958
310
330
350
370
10 20 30 40
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0
Worldwide Carbon Emissions
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0
1
2
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7
8
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Liquid fuel
Total
Gas fuel
Solid fuel
Annual Carbon Emissions
Annual carbon emissions
Atmospheric CO
2
Atmospheric CO
2
average
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
0
4
6
8
2
Year
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Future Carbon Dioxide Levels
Increasing CO
2
emissions, especially in
China and developing countries
Likely to double within 150 years:
Increased coal usage
Increased natural gas usage
Decreased petroleum usage (increased
cost and decreasing supply)
Kyoto Protocol
Adopted in 1997
Cut CO
2
emissions by 5% from 1990
levels for 2008-2012
Symbolic only, since cuts will not
significantly impact global warming
Past Temperatures
-0.6
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0.8
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
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Recorded Worldwide
Temperatures
Flat
Decreasing
Flat
Winter Temperatures
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Summer Temperatures
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Annual Temperatures
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
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Historic Los Angeles
Temperatures
2009 Temperature Changes
Compared to 1951-1980
-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
Past Temperatures Measurement
Proxy a method that approximates a
particular measurement (e.g.,
temperature)
Tree rings
Ice cores
Pollen records
Plant macrofossils
Sr/Ca isotope data
Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite
(stalactites and stalagmites)
Temperature History of the Earth
Little ice age (1400-1840) 1C cooler
Medieval warm period (800-1300) 1C
warmer than today
Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years
Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North
Atlantic
Mostly due to changes in thermohaline
circulation
Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline
circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a
large lake in Canada flooded the North
Atlantic
Main Ocean Currents
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2
Temperature History of the Earth
For the past 3 million years, the earth
has been experiencing ~100,000 year
long cycles of glaciation followed by
~10,000 year long interglacial periods
These climate periods are largely the
result of cycles in the earths orbit
precession, obliquity, and eccentricity
Orbital Parameters: Precession
Perihelion Apehelion
Orbital Parameters: Obliquity
22.5 24.5
Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity





Perihelion Apehelion





Apehelion
Minimum: 0.005
Maximum: 0.061
Not to scale! To Scale!
Orbital Parameters & Earths Climate
Age (kya)
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Eccentricity
(100 ky)
Temperature
Obliquity
(41 ky)
Precession
(22 ky)
Temperature History of the Earth
For the past 3 million years, the earth
has been experiencing ~100,000 year
long cycles of glaciation followed by
~10,000 year long interglacial periods
Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years
ago, but was interrupted by the
Younger Dryas event 12,900 years
ago
Younger
Dryas
Younger Dryas Event
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
0 5 10 15 20
Age (kya)
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0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
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Little Ice Age
Ice Age
Medieval Warm
Younger Dryas Event
-44
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-42
-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
-34
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8
O

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-8.0
-7.5
-7.0
-6.5
-6.0
-5.5
-5.0
-4.5
-4.0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
d
1
8
O

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)

Younger
Dryas
Age (kya)
Temperature History of the Earth
Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya)
Temperatures: 2C higher than today.
20C higher at high latitudes
1C higher at the Equator
Sea levels were 100 ft higher
Causes
CO
2
levels that were 100 ppm higher
Increased thermohaline circulation
Temperature History of the Earth
Eocene (41 million years ago)
Opening of the Drake Passage
(between South America and
Antarctica).
Increased ocean current exchange
Strong global cooling
First permanent glaciation of Antarctica
~34 million years ago
Temperature History of the Earth
Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya)
Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8C
Causes
Increased volcanism
Rapid release of methane from the oceans
Temperature History of the Earth
Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya)
Much warmer
Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland
Causes
Different ocean currents (continental
arrangement)
higher CO
2
levels (at least 2 to 4 times
higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)
Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
30
60
90
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400 300 200 100 0
Paleozoic Mesozoic Cenozoic
S D Carb P Tr J K Pg Ng
A Compilation of Phanerozoic
Atmospheric CO
2
Records
Recent Temperature
Changes
Hockey Stick Controversy
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
-0.8
Year
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
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Direct temperature measurements
Mann et al. 1999
The Problem with Tree Rings
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
-0.6
Year
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
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-0.2
-0.1
Jones et al. 1998
Briffa et al. 1999
Mann et al. 1999
What Influences Tree Rings?
Temperature
Rainfall
Carbon dioxide concentration
Mann et al. 1999
Esper et al. 2002
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
-2
-1
0
1
2
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2000
Year
Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000
Year
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Mann et al. 1999
Esper et al. 2002
Moberg et al. 2005
Mann et al. 2008
Medieval Warm Period
U.S. National Academy of
Sciences: June 2006
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
-0.8
Year
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
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high level of confidence 2:1 chance of being right
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1980 1990 2000
Year
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
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0.4
0.6
0.8
1980 1990 2000
Year
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Atmospheric Temperatures
Troposphere Stratosphere
170
220
270
320
370
0 200000 400000 600000
Time (YBP)
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25
26
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31
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CO
2
Concentration Vs. Temperature
Consequences of
Global Warming
Global Warming Primarily Impacts
the Northern Hemisphere
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-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1920 1960 2000
Year
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1920 1960 2000
Year
Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean
Northern Hemisphere
Southern Hemisphere
Land
Ocean
2009 Temperature Changes
Compared to 1951-1980
-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1
Ice Sheets Melting?
GRACE (gravity measured by satellite)
found melting of Antarctica equivalent
to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2
in/century)
Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar
altimetry)
confirmed Antarctica melting
Greenland ice melting on
exterior, accumulating inland
(higher precipitation)
Melting Glaciers Mt. Kilimanjaro
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
2003 2004 2005
I
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e

M
a
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s

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m
3
)

Year
Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass
Rise in Sea Levels?
Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4
in/century)
Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006
mm/yr
2
If acceleration continues, could result
in 12 in/century sea level rise
Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more
rise are unrealistic
Changing Sea Levels
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
-20
-10
0
10
20
R
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Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Brest, France
Swinoujscie, Poland
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Time (KYBP)
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20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
Sea Levels for 450,000 Years
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
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Increase in Hurricanes?
Two studies showed the total number
of hurricanes has not changed
However, the intensity of hurricanes
has increased (more category 4 and 5
hurricanes and cyclones)
Probably due to higher sea surface
temperatures (more energy)
Difficult to know if this trend will
continue
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
0
5
10
15
Data Unreliable
Scaled August-October
Sea-Surface Temperature
Adjusted Atlantic Storm
Power Dissipation Index
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How Much Temperature
Increase?
Some models propose up to 9C
increase this century
Two studies put the minimum at 1.5C
and maximum at 4.5C or 6.2C
Another study puts the minimum at
2.5C
Wildlife Effects
Polar Bears
Require pack ice to live
Might eventually go extinct in the wild
Sea turtles
Breed on the same islands as
their birth
Could go extinct on some islands
as beaches are flooded
Other species may go extinct as rainfall
patterns change throughout the world
Effect on Humans
Fewer deaths from cold, more from
heat
Decreased thermohaline circulation
Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic
CO
2
fertilization effect
Precipitation changes
Droughts and famine (some areas)
Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union
Potential Worldwide Precipitation
Changes
-50 -20 -10 -5 5 10 20 50
Drought in Africa
Lake Faguibine Lake Chad
Cost to Stabilize CO
2

Concentrations
450 550 650 750
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Carbon Dioxide (ppm)
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.
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Possible Solutions to
Global Warming
Mitigation of Global Warming
Conservation
Reduce energy needs
Recycling
Alternate energy sources
Nuclear
Wind
Geothermal
Hydroelectric
Solar
Fusion?
Storage of CO
2
in Geological Formations
1. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs
2. CO
2
in enhanced oil and gas recovery
3. Deep saline formations (a) offshore (b) onshore
4. CO
2
in enhanced coal bed methane recovery
Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7
3a
2
3b
1
4
Global Warming Myths
Global Warming Has Stopped?
-0.2
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0.6
0.8
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
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1365.2
1365.4
1365.6
1365.8
1366.0
1366.2
1366.4
1366.6
1366.8
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2010
Volcanoes Put Out More CO
2

Than Fossil Fuel Burning
0
2
4
6
8
10
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Fossil Fuel
Volcanoes
Global Warming is Caused by
Sunspots
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
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0
50
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150
200
250
S
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s

Hadley Temperatures Vs.
Sunspots
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
1.0
1.5
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
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200
250
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Global Warming is Caused by
GCR
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
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0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
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3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
G
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a

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R
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s

CO
2
Vs. Sea Level CO
2
Vs. Temperature
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000
Time (ybp)
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
R
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a
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S
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180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
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(
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-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
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Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.
-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1
Global Warming is Due to Urban
Heat Islands
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
Mt. Kilimanjaro Glaciers are Melting
Because of Global Warming
Global Warming Primarily Impacts
the Northern Hemisphere
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1920 1960 2000
Year
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Northern vs. Southern Latitude
Northern Hemisphere
Southern Hemisphere
1920 1960 2000
Year
Land vs. Ocean
Land
Ocean
Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft?
Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4
in/century)
Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006 mm/yr
2
If acceleration continues, could result in 12
in/century sea level rise
Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are
unrealistic
Recently, the California State Lands
Commission said that sea levels could rise
55 inches this century, inundating ports
Changing Sea Levels
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
-20
-10
0
10
20
R
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Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Brest, France
Swinoujscie, Poland
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How Much Temperature
Increase?
Global warming alarmists propose up
to 9C increase this century
Two studies put the minimum at 1.5C
and maximum at 4.5C or 6.2C
Another study puts the minimum at
2.5C
Predictions Vs. Reality
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1.5
1.0
0.5
0
-0.4
Date
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019
Annual Mean Global Temperature Change
OBSERVED
SCENARIO A
SCENARIO B
SCENARIO C
Hansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241.
Exponential Increase in carbon emissions
Moderate reduction in carbon emissions
Drastic reduction in carbon emissions
Observed temps through 1988
Temperature Extrapolation
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1.5
1.0
0.5
0
-0.4
Date
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
2.5
2.0
1960
Conclusions
Global warming is happening
Most warming is probably the result of
human activities
There will be positive and negative
(mostly) repercussions from global
warming
The costs to mitigate global warming
will be high better spent elsewhere?